A Summons Experience - Chasing Guardian Panther
This is a quick post to summarise & warn players of the dangers in “Chasing” a specific hero. What did it take me in my hunt for Guardian Panther?
Disclaimer:
I did this of my own volition. I made my budget and I stuck to it. Please please please always set your monetary budget and STICK TO IT!
If you feel you may have an addiction to gambling/ gambling like activities please seek help.
Avoid Summons Heartache by @zephyr1
Quoted from @zephyr1 posts:
Avoiding Overspending & Heartache
Or: How many summons are needed to get a HOTM?
Special thanks to @Garanwyn for assistance on summoning odds and proofreading for this section.
It’s important to remember that HOTM have very low summoning odds. No amount of summoning will guarantee a HOTM.
On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 12.3% chance of summoning the HOTM.
But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.
Some useful insights:
- 73 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 100
- 95 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 229
- 99 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 352
Putting that in Perspective
- 27 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 100th pull
- If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 270,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM
- 5 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 229th pull
- If 1 Million players each summoned 229 times, 50,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM
My Goal & Limits
I set out to have one final crack at getting Guardian Panther in the January 2020 Challenge Event (Guardians of Teltoc). This was the first event which featured the new Guardians Heroes in Guardian Chameleon, Guardian Gazelle and Guardian Bat
I set myself a Budget of 250 Gem Spins plus any Event Coin Spins I accumulated.
This equates to 65,000 Gems. Of these 65k Gems I had 35k stockpiled from Christmas & Halloween Offers. The remaining 30k Gems I planned on getting from Challenge Offers & making the rest up with “Mountain of Gem” purchases.
(AGAIN THIS WAS MY BUDGET & MY DECISION based on my financial situation…)
Expectations
Portal Odds:
From this, the following can be determined:
Odds of getting Guardian Panther = [5* Event Odds] / [# of 5* Event Heroes] = 1% / 5 = 0.2%
So the odds are very low… Very Very Low… So low in fact that:
- Straight Odds to get Panther would need 500 summons (1 / 0.002 = 500)
- Cumulative Probability from my 250 Spins was only a 39.38% chance of success.
- Using Cumulative Probabilities, in order to have a 50% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 347 summons
- Again using Cumulative Probability, in order to have a 75% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 693 summons.
- With my 250 dedicated summons
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Cumulative Probability Maths
[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
x = 1 - ( 1 - 0.002) ^ 250
x = 39.38%
[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
50% = ( 1 - 0.002) ^ x
x = 347 attempts
[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
75% =1 - ( 1 - 0.002) ^ x
x = 693 attempts
The Summons
So knowing I had at best a 40% chance of coming out of all this with Panther, I split my summons up a bit… Did some on the first 3 days of the Event… Mainly that was to help me stick to my budget more than anything.
I ended up using 230 of my Gem Summons and 10 event coin summons for a total of 240 summons before SUCCESS!!! I got Guardian Panther on the first draw of my 23rd 10x pull.
Also ended up with a couple other 5* classic heroes, all of whom were duplicates for me. Finally got 4 copies of Vela of whom I’ll probably level 2 & use the other 2 for the Hero Academy.
In total I recieved the following breakdown of heroes:
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Breaking it down by types I received the following quantities of heroes:
5* Heroes
4* Heroes
The full 240 summons (230 Gems & 10 Coins) in order are hidden below.
Click for Full 240 summons
| # | Name | * | Colour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelile | 4 | Red |
| 2 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 3 | Rigard | 4 | Purple |
| 4 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 5 | Ulmer | 3 | Blue |
| 6 | Prisca | 3 | Purple |
| 7 | Brianne | 3 | Green |
| 8 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 9 | Gormek | 4 | Red |
| 10 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 11 | Melendor | 4 | Green |
| 12 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 13 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 14 | Hawkmoon | 3 | Red |
| 15 | Sonya | 4 | Blue |
| 16 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 17 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 18 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 19 | Hawkmoon | 3 | Red |
| 20 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 21 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 22 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
| 23 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 24 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 25 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 26 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 27 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 28 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 29 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 30 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 31 | Kashhrek | 4 | Green |
| 32 | Scarlett | 4 | Red |
| 33 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 34 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 35 | Wu Kong | 4 | Yellow |
| 36 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 37 | Boril | 4 | Blue |
| 38 | Ulmer | 3 | Blue |
| 39 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 40 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 41 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 42 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 43 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 44 | Isshtak | 3 | Green |
| 45 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 46 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 47 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 48 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 49 | Wu Kong | 4 | Yellow |
| 50 | Cyprian | 4 | Purple |
| 51 | Grimm | 4 | Blue |
| 52 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 53 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 54 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 55 | Wu Kong | 4 | Yellow |
| 56 | Sonya | 4 | Blue |
| 57 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 58 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 59 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 60 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 61 | Colen | 4 | Red |
| 62 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 63 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 64 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 65 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 66 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 67 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 68 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 69 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 70 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 71 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 72 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 73 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 74 | Boril | 4 | Blue |
| 75 | Brianne | 3 | Green |
| 76 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 77 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 78 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 79 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 80 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 81 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 82 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 83 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 84 | Grimm | 4 | Blue |
| 85 | Ulmer | 3 | Blue |
| 86 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 87 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
| 88 | Li Xiu | 4 | Yellow |
| 89 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 90 | Prisca | 3 | Purple |
| 91 | Vela | 5 | Blue |
| 92 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 93 | Prisca | 3 | Purple |
| 94 | Hawkmoon | 3 | Red |
| 95 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 96 | Kelile | 4 | Red |
| 97 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 98 | Hawkmoon | 3 | Red |
| 99 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 100 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 101 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 102 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 103 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 104 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 105 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
| 106 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 107 | Scarlett | 4 | Red |
| 108 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 109 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 110 | Brianne | 3 | Green |
| 111 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 112 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 113 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 114 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 115 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 116 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 117 | Horghall | 5 | Green |
| 118 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 119 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 120 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 121 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 122 | Wu Kong | 4 | Yellow |
| 123 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 124 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 125 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 126 | Rigard | 4 | Purple |
| 127 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 128 | Hu Tao | 4 | Yellow |
| 129 | Prisca | 3 | Purple |
| 130 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 131 | Caedmon | 4 | Green |
| 132 | Ulmer | 3 | Blue |
| 133 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 134 | Balthazar | 3 | Purple |
| 135 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 136 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 137 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 138 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 139 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 140 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 141 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 142 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 143 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 144 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 145 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 146 | Kelile | 4 | Red |
| 147 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 148 | Skittleskull | 4 | Green |
| 149 | Leonidas | 5 | Yellow |
| 150 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 151 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 152 | Vela | 5 | Blue |
| 153 | Dawa | 3 | Yellow |
| 154 | Karil | 3 | Blue |
| 155 | Caedmon | 4 | Green |
| 156 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 157 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 158 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 159 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 160 | Sabina | 4 | Purple |
| 161 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 162 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 163 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 164 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 165 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 166 | Wu Kong | 4 | Yellow |
| 167 | Little John | 4 | Green |
| 168 | Isshtak | 3 | Green |
| 169 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
| 170 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
| 171 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 172 | Melendor | 4 | Green |
| 173 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 174 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 175 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 176 | Balthazar | 3 | Purple |
| 177 | Boril | 4 | Blue |
| 178 | Ulmer | 3 | Blue |
| 179 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 180 | Hawkmoon | 3 | Red |
| 181 | Khagan | 5 | Red |
| 182 | Balthazar | 3 | Purple |
| 183 | Tiburtus | 4 | Purple |
| 184 | Horghall | 5 | Green |
| 185 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 186 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 187 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 188 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 189 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 190 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 191 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 192 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 193 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 194 | Greymane | 3 | Blue |
| 195 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 196 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 197 | Balthazar | 3 | Purple |
| 198 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 199 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 200 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 201 | Little John | 4 | Green |
| 202 | Gormek | 4 | Red |
| 203 | Vela | 5 | Blue |
| 204 | Melendor | 4 | Green |
| 205 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 206 | Valen | 3 | Blue |
| 207 | Friar Tuck | 3 | Green |
| 208 | Melendor | 4 | Green |
| 209 | Belith | 3 | Green |
| 210 | Azar | 3 | Red |
| 211 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 212 | Colen | 4 | Red |
| 213 | Guardian Falcon | 4 | Red |
| 214 | Chao | 4 | Yellow |
| 215 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 216 | Carver | 3 | Green |
| 217 | Gan Ju | 3 | Yellow |
| 218 | Tyrum | 3 | Purple |
| 219 | Isshtak | 3 | Green |
| 220 | Boldtusk | 4 | Red |
| 221 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 222 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 223 | Gunnar | 3 | Blue |
| 224 | Oberon | 3 | Purple |
| 225 | Bane | 3 | Yellow |
| 226 | Skittleskull | 4 | Green |
| 227 | Quintus | 5 | Purple |
| 228 | Colen | 4 | Red |
| 229 | Guardian Jackal | 4 | Yellow |
| 230 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 231 | Hu Tao | 4 | Yellow |
| 232 | Justice | 5 | Yellow |
| 233 | Gunnar | 3 | Blue |
| 234 | Guardian Panther | 5 | Purple |
| 235 | Guardian Bat | 3 | Purple |
| 236 | Kailani | 3 | Yellow |
| 237 | Berden | 3 | Green |
| 238 | Jahangir | 3 | Red |
| 239 | Prisca | 3 | Purple |
| 240 | Vela | 5 | Blue |
| 241 | Balthazar | 3 | Purple |
| 242 | Renfeld | 3 | Purple |
| 243 | Melendor | 4 | Green |
| 244 | Nashgar | 3 | Red |
Assessment
If we compare the Portal Odds with the odds of my summons we see that I am slightly ahead on HotM summons, Classic 4* heroes & event 4* heroes.
So I got VERY lucky in the 5* hero aspect in that I had a 4.58% distribution compared to the 3.8% expected distribution.
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If we go back to the cumulative probability of getting Guardian Panther we can see that I was again very fortunate.
Counting the Costs
I think it is important to highlight the fact that chasing heroes is expensive. It shouldn’t be embarked on lightly…
For me, if we take the 230 gem summons that I did to get Guardian Panther it comes to the following cost:
Cost: 23 off 10x summons @ 2600 gems each = 59,800 gems
Gems: If we assume all gems came from “Mountain of Gems” packages, I would need 6x of these packages, each of which are $159.99 AUD each.
Monetary Cost: $$ = 6 * 159.99 = $959.94 AUD = $662.36 USDTo Put that in perspective, the average coffee price is $4.5 AUD. This means that Guardian Panther cost 213.32 cups of coffee…
Summary
In Summary, I was very very fortunate. I chased Guardian Panther and succeeded against the odds.
I advise players to think carefully before chasing after a hero… Set your budget & stick to it.
If you’re getting in over your head/ addicted please reach out either to a friend, family, counsellor, Alliance member or on the forum.
Final notes
Guardians Threads
- 🗿 New Guardians of Teltoc Challenge Event – FAQ, Discussion & Summoning Results
- ℹ Guardian Kong – 5* Fire/Red from Guardians of Teltoc
- ℹ Guardian Panther – 5* Dark/Purple from Guardians of Teltoc
- ℹ Guardian Owl – 5* Holy/Yellow from Guardians of Teltoc
- 🗿 Guardian Gazelle: Guardians of Teltoc – Thoughts, Discussion & Summon Results with Feedback
- 🗿 Guardian Chameleon: Guardians of Teltoc – Thoughts, Discussion & Summon Results with Feedback
- ℹ Guardian Falcon – 4* Fire/Red from Guardians of Teltoc
- ℹ Guardian Jackal – 4* Holy/Yellow from Guardians of Teltoc
- 🗿 Guardian Bat: Guardians of Teltoc – Thoughts, Discussion & Summon Results with Feedback
Further Works
If anyone is interested I may be able to dig up some old data I have stored for:
- Chasing Sand Empire heroes
- Chasing a Featured HotM at Atlantis
thats all. You can continue with your life now.
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