[WARNING] A Summons Experience - Chasing Guardian Panther - A Warning for Chasing Heroes

A Summons Experience - Chasing Guardian Panther

This is a quick post to summarise & warn players of the dangers in “Chasing” a specific hero. What did it take me in my hunt for Guardian Panther?

Disclaimer:
I did this of my own volition. I made my budget and I stuck to it. Please please please always set your monetary budget and STICK TO IT!
If you feel you may have an addiction to gambling/ gambling like activities please seek help.

Avoid Summons Heartache by @zephyr1

Quoted from @zephyr1 posts:

:money_with_wings: Avoiding Overspending & Heartache :broken_heart:
Or: How many summons are needed to get a HOTM?
Special thanks to @Garanwyn for assistance on summoning odds and proofreading for this section.
It’s important to remember that HOTM have very low summoning odds. No amount of summoning will guarantee a HOTM.
On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 12.3% chance of summoning the HOTM.
But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.
Some useful insights:

  • 73 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 100
  • 95 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 229
  • 99 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 352

Putting that in Perspective

  • 27 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 100th pull
  • If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 270,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM
  • 5 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 229th pull
  • If 1 Million players each summoned 229 times, 50,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM

My Goal & Limits

I set out to have one final crack at getting Guardian Panther in the January 2020 Challenge Event (Guardians of Teltoc). This was the first event which featured the new Guardians Heroes in Guardian Chameleon, Guardian Gazelle and Guardian Bat

I set myself a Budget of 250 Gem Spins plus any Event Coin Spins I accumulated.

This equates to 65,000 Gems. Of these 65k Gems I had 35k stockpiled from Christmas & Halloween Offers. The remaining 30k Gems I planned on getting from Challenge Offers & making the rest up with “Mountain of Gem” purchases.
(AGAIN THIS WAS MY BUDGET & MY DECISION based on my financial situation…)

Expectations

Portal Odds:

From this, the following can be determined:
Odds of getting Guardian Panther = [5* Event Odds] / [# of 5* Event Heroes] = 1% / 5 = 0.2%

So the odds are very low… Very Very Low… So low in fact that:

  • Straight Odds to get Panther would need 500 summons (1 / 0.002 = 500)
  • Cumulative Probability from my 250 Spins was only a 39.38% chance of success.
  • Using Cumulative Probabilities, in order to have a 50% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 347 summons
  • Again using Cumulative Probability, in order to have a 75% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 693 summons.
  • With my 250 dedicated summons
    .
Cumulative Probability Maths

[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
x = 1 - ( 1 - 0.002) ^ 250
x = 39.38%

[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
50% = ( 1 - 0.002) ^ x
x = 347 attempts

[Probability of Success] = 1 - ( 1 - [Probability of Failure]) ^ [# of Attempts]
75% =1 - ( 1 - 0.002) ^ x
x = 693 attempts

The Summons

So knowing I had at best a 40% chance of coming out of all this with Panther, I split my summons up a bit… Did some on the first 3 days of the Event… Mainly that was to help me stick to my budget more than anything.

I ended up using 230 of my Gem Summons and 10 event coin summons for a total of 240 summons before SUCCESS!!! I got Guardian Panther on the first draw of my 23rd 10x pull.

Also ended up with a couple other 5* classic heroes, all of whom were duplicates for me. Finally got 4 copies of Vela of whom I’ll probably level 2 & use the other 2 for the Hero Academy.

In total I recieved the following breakdown of heroes:
image
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image

Breaking it down by types I received the following quantities of heroes:

5* Heroes

image

4* Heroes

image

3* Heroes

The full 240 summons (230 Gems & 10 Coins) in order are hidden below.

Click for Full 240 summons
# Name * Colour
1 Kelile 4 Red
2 Azar 3 Red
3 Rigard 4 Purple
4 Karil 3 Blue
5 Ulmer 3 Blue
6 Prisca 3 Purple
7 Brianne 3 Green
8 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
9 Gormek 4 Red
10 Azar 3 Red
11 Melendor 4 Green
12 Belith 3 Green
13 Tyrum 3 Purple
14 Hawkmoon 3 Red
15 Sonya 4 Blue
16 Carver 3 Green
17 Renfeld 3 Purple
18 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
19 Hawkmoon 3 Red
20 Greymane 3 Blue
21 Belith 3 Green
22 Nashgar 3 Red
23 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
24 Karil 3 Blue
25 Dawa 3 Yellow
26 Carver 3 Green
27 Belith 3 Green
28 Azar 3 Red
29 Oberon 3 Purple
30 Azar 3 Red
31 Kashhrek 4 Green
32 Scarlett 4 Red
33 Karil 3 Blue
34 Kailani 3 Yellow
35 Wu Kong 4 Yellow
36 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
37 Boril 4 Blue
38 Ulmer 3 Blue
39 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
40 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
41 Bane 3 Yellow
42 Renfeld 3 Purple
43 Berden 3 Green
44 Isshtak 3 Green
45 Karil 3 Blue
46 Greymane 3 Blue
47 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
48 Kailani 3 Yellow
49 Wu Kong 4 Yellow
50 Cyprian 4 Purple
51 Grimm 4 Blue
52 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
53 Azar 3 Red
54 Greymane 3 Blue
55 Wu Kong 4 Yellow
56 Sonya 4 Blue
57 Valen 3 Blue
58 Karil 3 Blue
59 Tyrum 3 Purple
60 Dawa 3 Yellow
61 Colen 4 Red
62 Berden 3 Green
63 Valen 3 Blue
64 Jahangir 3 Red
65 Bane 3 Yellow
66 Berden 3 Green
67 Tyrum 3 Purple
68 Friar Tuck 3 Green
69 Renfeld 3 Purple
70 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
71 Oberon 3 Purple
72 Greymane 3 Blue
73 Jahangir 3 Red
74 Boril 4 Blue
75 Brianne 3 Green
76 Greymane 3 Blue
77 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
78 Renfeld 3 Purple
79 Berden 3 Green
80 Bane 3 Yellow
81 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
82 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
83 Bane 3 Yellow
84 Grimm 4 Blue
85 Ulmer 3 Blue
86 Belith 3 Green
87 Nashgar 3 Red
88 Li Xiu 4 Yellow
89 Friar Tuck 3 Green
90 Prisca 3 Purple
91 Vela 5 Blue
92 Tyrum 3 Purple
93 Prisca 3 Purple
94 Hawkmoon 3 Red
95 Berden 3 Green
96 Kelile 4 Red
97 Azar 3 Red
98 Hawkmoon 3 Red
99 Kailani 3 Yellow
100 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
101 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
102 Karil 3 Blue
103 Azar 3 Red
104 Bane 3 Yellow
105 Nashgar 3 Red
106 Friar Tuck 3 Green
107 Scarlett 4 Red
108 Renfeld 3 Purple
109 Dawa 3 Yellow
110 Brianne 3 Green
111 Carver 3 Green
112 Renfeld 3 Purple
113 Kailani 3 Yellow
114 Jahangir 3 Red
115 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
116 Berden 3 Green
117 Horghall 5 Green
118 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
119 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
120 Belith 3 Green
121 Friar Tuck 3 Green
122 Wu Kong 4 Yellow
123 Karil 3 Blue
124 Valen 3 Blue
125 Berden 3 Green
126 Rigard 4 Purple
127 Oberon 3 Purple
128 Hu Tao 4 Yellow
129 Prisca 3 Purple
130 Jahangir 3 Red
131 Caedmon 4 Green
132 Ulmer 3 Blue
133 Carver 3 Green
134 Balthazar 3 Purple
135 Jahangir 3 Red
136 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
137 Dawa 3 Yellow
138 Azar 3 Red
139 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
140 Renfeld 3 Purple
141 Berden 3 Green
142 Tyrum 3 Purple
143 Dawa 3 Yellow
144 Karil 3 Blue
145 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
146 Kelile 4 Red
147 Kailani 3 Yellow
148 Skittleskull 4 Green
149 Leonidas 5 Yellow
150 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
151 Friar Tuck 3 Green
152 Vela 5 Blue
153 Dawa 3 Yellow
154 Karil 3 Blue
155 Caedmon 4 Green
156 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
157 Carver 3 Green
158 Belith 3 Green
159 Bane 3 Yellow
160 Sabina 4 Purple
161 Berden 3 Green
162 Azar 3 Red
163 Valen 3 Blue
164 Belith 3 Green
165 Carver 3 Green
166 Wu Kong 4 Yellow
167 Little John 4 Green
168 Isshtak 3 Green
169 Nashgar 3 Red
170 Nashgar 3 Red
171 Berden 3 Green
172 Melendor 4 Green
173 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
174 Carver 3 Green
175 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
176 Balthazar 3 Purple
177 Boril 4 Blue
178 Ulmer 3 Blue
179 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
180 Hawkmoon 3 Red
181 Khagan 5 Red
182 Balthazar 3 Purple
183 Tiburtus 4 Purple
184 Horghall 5 Green
185 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
186 Friar Tuck 3 Green
187 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
188 Valen 3 Blue
189 Greymane 3 Blue
190 Oberon 3 Purple
191 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
192 Oberon 3 Purple
193 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
194 Greymane 3 Blue
195 Azar 3 Red
196 Carver 3 Green
197 Balthazar 3 Purple
198 Carver 3 Green
199 Valen 3 Blue
200 Jahangir 3 Red
201 Little John 4 Green
202 Gormek 4 Red
203 Vela 5 Blue
204 Melendor 4 Green
205 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
206 Valen 3 Blue
207 Friar Tuck 3 Green
208 Melendor 4 Green
209 Belith 3 Green
210 Azar 3 Red
211 Oberon 3 Purple
212 Colen 4 Red
213 Guardian Falcon 4 Red
214 Chao 4 Yellow
215 Jahangir 3 Red
216 Carver 3 Green
217 Gan Ju 3 Yellow
218 Tyrum 3 Purple
219 Isshtak 3 Green
220 Boldtusk 4 Red
221 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
222 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
223 Gunnar 3 Blue
224 Oberon 3 Purple
225 Bane 3 Yellow
226 Skittleskull 4 Green
227 Quintus 5 Purple
228 Colen 4 Red
229 Guardian Jackal 4 Yellow
230 Kailani 3 Yellow
231 Hu Tao 4 Yellow
232 Justice 5 Yellow
233 Gunnar 3 Blue
234 Guardian Panther 5 Purple
235 Guardian Bat 3 Purple
236 Kailani 3 Yellow
237 Berden 3 Green
238 Jahangir 3 Red
239 Prisca 3 Purple
240 Vela 5 Blue
241 Balthazar 3 Purple
242 Renfeld 3 Purple
243 Melendor 4 Green
244 Nashgar 3 Red

Assessment

If we compare the Portal Odds with the odds of my summons we see that I am slightly ahead on HotM summons, Classic 4* heroes & event 4* heroes.
So I got VERY lucky in the 5* hero aspect in that I had a 4.58% distribution compared to the 3.8% expected distribution.
image
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If we go back to the cumulative probability of getting Guardian Panther we can see that I was again very fortunate.
image

Counting the Costs

I think it is important to highlight the fact that chasing heroes is expensive. It shouldn’t be embarked on lightly…
For me, if we take the 230 gem summons that I did to get Guardian Panther it comes to the following cost:

Cost: 23 off 10x summons @ 2600 gems each = 59,800 gems
Gems: If we assume all gems came from “Mountain of Gems” packages, I would need 6x of these packages, each of which are $159.99 AUD each.
Monetary Cost: $$ = 6 * 159.99 = $959.94 AUD = $662.36 USD

To Put that in perspective, the average coffee price is $4.5 AUD. This means that Guardian Panther cost 213.32 cups of coffee…

Summary

In Summary, I was very very fortunate. I chased Guardian Panther and succeeded against the odds.
I advise players to think carefully before chasing after a hero… Set your budget & stick to it.

If you’re getting in over your head/ addicted please reach out either to a friend, family, counsellor, Alliance member or on the forum.

Final notes

Guardians Threads

Further Works
If anyone is interested I may be able to dig up some old data I have stored for:

  • Chasing Sand Empire heroes
  • Chasing a Featured HotM at Atlantis
70 Likes

@Guvnor, thank you for a current cautionary tale. One of the key points for me was your budget. It’s very easy to forget the monetary cost when you get caught up in the game. To me it reiterates my not chasing heros. Thank you!

11 Likes

Oops, a gilded Panther. :wink:

5 Likes

So you’re saying I had no right to be outraged when I didnt get panther after my 23 pulls? Blasphemy.

On a serious note I really wish all players took the time to look these examples over and truly take the time to understand the odds involved in summons. It’s really frustrating when you see some people genuinely outraged when they dont get what they want from like a 10 pull. Congratulatios on Panther, the hero at the very top of my wishlist.

18 Likes

mmmmh…I am trying to see the good in this post, but its quite hard I must say. Someone trying to convince others that spending thousands of dollars in a mobile game is normal if you make a budget for it. Dunno man, not gonna judge you. Its your money. But I dont see any particular reason to congratulate you or find this useful in any way. On the other hand, congrats on Panther.

2 Likes

It’s not a bragging tale… It never was… if it was I wouldn’t have posted the warnings or other peripheral pulls… I would have simply put it in a bragging thread or whatever.

It’s not about trying to convince people to do it… The post is a warning… The costs and realistic expectations in terms of chasing & getting heroes…

25 Likes

How about you don’t worry about someone else’s money?

This is a fantastic example of what some spend to get A HERO. we need examples to show people why not to chase.

I commend @Guvnor for being honest here about what he spent and what it took.

22 Likes

I really dont care what this guy does with his money, but as this is a free forum where everyone can say what they want, I also gave my opinion :slight_smile: thats all. You can continue with your life now.

2 Likes

Glad you got her and hopefully this shows players the reality of hero chases and how important it is to stick to a budget and not just spend until they get a desired hero in a small period of time since the odds are so astronomical that the spending amount could result in a lot more than they expected if they don’t stick to their budgeted amount

8 Likes

Ok sure… I was just setting the record straight seeing as you managed to skew it into a bragging thing somehow…

4 Likes

Lol your opinion sucks and sounds like a whole lotta jealousy goin on

U cared enough to read

Cared enough to look like an idiot

I’d say u care at least a little

11 Likes

O man…I think I touch something there to make you insult me with no reason. I am not going to do that with you. Have a nice day :slight_smile:

1 Like

Lol i didn’t do anything but state the obvious to you since you didn’t see it

No worries though, everyone else that reads this thread will

1 Like

Very nice article @Guvnor. Thank you. As a coffee addict, I appreciate you simplifying the math for us. 213 days of coffee :open_mouth: :exploding_head:

Makes me nostalgic for the days when you could drop $40-50 to buy a game and that was it for as long as you played it.

18 Likes

So why take the time to say anything?

Yes indeed. Perhaps set up your own thread and feel free to express them there?

Thanks @Guvnor for sharing - 250 summons - wow! But, the fact that you took the time to record and provide a very detailed breakdown of your summonses, is something we all can learn from, if we take the time to read it :thinking:.

Appreciated :smile:.

7 Likes

Hi Sarah. I just felt I had to say it. As you felt you had to write to me too. Its all good. Have a lovely day!

So I think we established:

  • @Guvnor set a budget (be it a large budget) to chase a hero.
  • Said hero was obtained at pull 240.
  • The intent of this post was not to brag but rather to provide an actual scenario of what chasing a hero looks like.

Am I missing anything?

And thanks for sharing. My goal this time was to get falcon and jackel. I have never pulled guardians before in over 2 years so this was my modest goal. Unfortunately, it took 5 10-pulls to get both. The odds were less so in my favor as those two should have came earlier. I would like a 5*, but I hit my budget (which also was from multiple months) and stopped.

18 Likes

And this my friends, is a true example of what setting a budged is. You have my respect. Hope you enjoy the twins :slight_smile:

1 Like

Nice post. I know people that spend more money on alcohol and cigarettes. I spend quite a bit on weed. I definitely went over my gaming budget during December because of all those deals. Ended up getting G. Owl

4 Likes

Thnx @Guvnor this post was great especially with the fact that I have read…100"s of F this game and F Sg for not giving me such and such for free, we deserve free because we play, I did 4 summons and got nothing, whales are cancer…post after post after post of how ftp deserves whatever after bad pulls, yet you had a horrible set of pulls going and luckily hit on what you had planned on going for, my question is had you gotten her way earlier would you have tried for the other event heroes or would you have saved the leftover gems for another event?

Also as you got towards 200 draws and no panther, did the thought of “Screw SG and this game!!!” start to rise? If you had come up empty handed would you be threatening to leave the game knowing how much money had just been used to receive nothing so to speak, or would you be able to walk away saying that’s just RNG?

7 Likes

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