🎅 Portal Stats & Summon Results – Santa's Challenge (Christmas) 2022

kép

This thread is for information and discussion on the Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) 2022



:game_die: Santa’s Challenge 2021 Appearance Rates

Appearance Rates

kép

Click for OLD 2021 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison

OLD 2021 Christmas Appearance Rates
kép

Click for OLD 2020 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison

image

Click for OLD 2019 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison

OLD 2019 Christmas Appearance Rates

Classic Season 1 Heroes

  • Rare Classic Hero: 56.8%
  • Epic Classic Hero: 20.8%
  • Legendary Classic Hero: 0.9%

Seasonal Heroes

  • Rare Seasonal Hero: 14.2%
  • Epic Seasonal Hero: 5.7%
  • Legendary Featured Seasonal Hero: 1.6 %*
    Costume included if available.

BONUS DRAW

Legendary Hero of the Month ‘Balur’: 1.3%


:dizzy: Epic Hero Tokens Can Be Used for Seasonal Summoning

The Seasonal Summons replaces the regular Epic Hero Summons.

Because of that, unlike Challenge Event Summons, the Summoning Portal for Seasonal Events allows using saved up Epic Hero Tokens that can otherwise normally only be used for Epic Hero Summons.

That makes Seasonal Events the only place you can currently use Epic Hero Tokens for a chance at non-Season 1 heroes.

You’ll also have the same chance at the HOTM as usual when using Epic Hero Tokens.


:gem: Summon Costs

  • Single: 1 Epic Hero Token or 300 Gems
  • 10x: 2600 Gems

:money_with_wings: Analysis of Summon Appearance Rates

This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x)

Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

Occurence 1x 10x 30x 100x 500x 1500x
Get At Least 1 Season 1 Hero 78.6% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Get At Least 1 Winter Hero 21.4% 91.0% 99.9% 100% 100% 100%
Get At Least 1 5* (excluding HOTM Bonus Draw) 2.5% 22.4% 53.2% 92.0% 99.9% 100%
Get At Least 1 Winter 5* 1.5% 14.0% 36.5% 77.9% 99.9% 100%
Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 5* 0.5% 4.9% 14.0% 39.4% 91.8% 99.3%
Get At Least 1 Winter 4* 5.7% 44.4% 82.8% 99.7% 100% 100%
Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 4* 2.85% 25.0% 58.0% 94.5% 100% 100%
Get At Least 1 Winter 3* 14.2% 78.4% 99.0% 100% 100% 100%
Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 3* 7.1% 52.1% 89.0% 99.9% 100% 100%

Putting That in Perspective

  • :no_entry_sign: If 1 million players each did :one::zero: Summons, 776,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter or Season 1 5* Hero

  • :no_entry_sign: If 1 million players each did :three::zero: Summons, 420,000 of those players would NOT get Carol

  • :no_entry_sign: If 1 million players each did :one::zero::zero: Summons, 221,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter 5* Hero

  • :no_entry_sign: If 1 million players each did :five::zero::zero: Summons, 82,000 of those players would NOT get Krampus


:link: Other 2022 Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) Threads


5 Likes

My 2 free pulls that I saved up… same crap as woth Halloween

1 Like

Had 34 tokens saved.



17 Likes

Three dupes from saved EHTs.

Hoping I still have some luck remaining this year… :sweat_smile:

7 Likes

2 single EHTs got me this… Christmas came early this year, and I’ve probably used up my luck for the quarter lol

Had to do a double take to make sure I wasn’t dreaming…

19 Likes

100 summons including 45 challenge festival summons and not one 5*. This game is just totally rigged.

2 Likes

Congrats on your C-Krampus @sleepyhead! :partying_face::tada::confetti_ball:

1 Like

Got these, 3 pengi, and another Augustus. 130 EHT’s used.

20 Likes

Got one more on a single pull :partying_face:

17 Likes

thank you very much @SamMe :slight_smile: hope you also get some good luck!

2 Likes

87 Pulls with EHT and all i got was a (useless) Balur and Lianna.

30 Event Pulls on top without any 5*.

This where pretty bad pulls, maybe the most i ever did in one run and the worst Outcome i ever got.

Definitley Not gona buy these 16 Pulls for 24 Euro calender offer.

Time to cut the spending once more i guess

2 Likes

48 EHTs got me Buster, Holly and Balur. Not expecting any 5s, so I’m satisfied.

3 Likes

50 EHT pulls… This was the highlight

15 Likes

Wow 8 seasonal 5* in 130 pulls, that’s odds of 6% which is crazy lucky :sweat_smile:

Unfortunately no luck for me, I did around 170 summons and pulled 3 x dupe Pengi, a dupe MN and a dupe Krampus. 5 heroes and not a single of the new heroes, typical RNG :sweat_smile:

1 Like


9 pulls :see_no_evil:

20 Likes

I did 33 pulls, got Augustus, Santa and Holly. Not too bad.

8 Likes

Despite a year on the neck is still worth doing?

13 Likes

On my second account.


13 Likes

Definitely! Congrats! :partying_face::tada::confetti_ball:

Out of saved tokens & 2 10’s this was my best: (still have 40ish EHT)
(This many pulls in total)


Netted a few dupes; Isarnia, Cathel, Isrod & Zuri (pictured)






I will try later for the holy grimble Ogima
But not chasing …lol…famous last words!!!

13 Likes