This thread is for information and discussion on the Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) 2023
Santa’s Challenge 2023 Appearance Rates
Appearance Rates
Click for OLD 2022 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison
Click for OLD 2021 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison
OLD 2021 Christmas Appearance Rates
Click for OLD 2020 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison
Click for OLD 2019 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison
OLD 2019 Christmas Appearance Rates
Classic Season 1 Heroes
- Rare Classic Hero: 56.8%
- Epic Classic Hero: 20.8%
- Legendary Classic Hero: 0.9%
Seasonal Heroes
- Rare Seasonal Hero: 14.2%
- Epic Seasonal Hero: 5.7%
- Legendary Non featured Seasonal Hero: 0.3 %
- Legendary Featured Seasonal Hero: 1.3 %*
Costume included if available.
BONUS DRAW
Legendary Hero of the Month ‘Leadria’: 1.3%
Epic Hero Tokens Can Be Used for Seasonal Summoning
The Seasonal Summons replaces the regular Epic Hero Summons.
Because of that, unlike Challenge Event Summons, the Summoning Portal for Seasonal Events allows using saved up Epic Hero Tokens that can otherwise normally only be used for Epic Hero Summons.
That makes Seasonal Events the only place you can currently use Epic Hero Tokens for a chance at non-Season 1 heroes.
You’ll also have the same chance at the HOTM as usual when using Epic Hero Tokens.
Summon Costs
- Single: 1 Epic Hero Token or 300 Gems
- 10x: 2600 Gems
Analysis of Summon Appearance Rates
This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x)
Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
| Occurence | 1x | 10x | 30x | 100x | 500x | 1500x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get At Least 1 Season 1 Hero | 78.6% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter Hero | 21.4% | 91.0% | 99.9% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 5* (excluding HOTM Bonus Draw) | 2.5% | 22.4% | 53.2% | 92.0% | 99.9% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 5* | 1.5% | 14.0% | 36.5% | 77.9% | 99.9% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 5* | 0.5% | 4.9% | 14.0% | 39.4% | 91.8% | 99.3% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 4* | 5.7% | 44.4% | 82.8% | 99.7% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 4* | 2.85% | 25.0% | 58.0% | 94.5% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 3* | 14.2% | 78.4% | 99.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 3* | 7.1% | 52.1% | 89.0% | 99.9% | 100% | 100% |
Putting That in Perspective
-
If 1 million players each did 
Summons, 776,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter or Season 1 5* Hero -
If 1 million players each did
Summons, 420,000 of those players would NOT get Carol -
If 1 million players each did Summons, 221,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter 5* Hero
-
If 1 million players each did
Summons, 82,000 of those players would NOT get Krampus
Other 2023 Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) Threads
- Hero Threads:
- 🎅 Augustus -- 5* Nature / Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- NEW 🎅 Cookie -- 5* Fire / Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- NEW 🎅 Ginger -- 5* Nature / Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Krampus -- 5* Ice/ Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Mother North -- 5* Nature/ Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Mr. Pengi -- 5* Ice / Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Peppermint -- 5* Dark / Purple from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Santa Claus -- 5* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Tinsel -- 5* Ice / Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- NEW 🎅 Zappa -- 5* Ice / Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Buddy -- 4* Nature/ Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Carol -- 4* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- NEW 🎅 Dizzy -- 4* Dark / Purple from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Holly -- 4* Holy / Yellow from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Buster -- 3* Fire / Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Frosty - 3* Ice/ Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- NEW 🎅 Jolly -- 3* Holy / Yellow from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Rudolph - 3* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- Costumes:
