This thread is for information and discussion on the Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) 2020 Summon Portal, and sharing Summon Results.
Santa’s Challenge 2020 Appearance Rates
Appearance Rates
Click for OLD 2019 Santa's Challenge Appearance Rates, for comparison
OLD 2019 Christmas Appearance Rates
Classic Season 1 Heroes
- Rare Classic Hero: 56.8%
- Epic Classic Hero: 20.8%
- Legendary Classic Hero: 1.0%
Seasonal Heroes
- Rare Seasonal Hero: 14.2%
- Epic Seasonal Hero: 5.7%
- Legendary Seasonal Hero: 1.5%
BONUS DRAW
Legendary Hero of the Month: 1.3%
Epic Hero Tokens Can Be Used for Seasonal Summoning
The Seasonal Summons replaces the regular Epic Hero Summons.
Because of that, unlike Challenge Event Summons, the Summoning Portal for Seasonal Events allows using saved up Epic Hero Tokens that can otherwise normally only be used for Epic Hero Summons.
That makes Seasonal Events the only place you can currently use Epic Hero Tokens for a chance at non-Season 1 heroes.
You’ll also have the same chance at the HOTM as usual when using Epic Hero Tokens.
Summon Costs
- Single: 1 Epic Hero Token or 300 Gems
- 10x: 2600 Gems
Analysis of Summon Appearance Rates
This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x)
Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
| Occurence | 1x | 10x | 30x | 100x | 500x | 1500x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get At Least 1 Season 1 Hero | 78.6% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter Hero | 21.4% | 91.0% | 99.9% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 5* (excluding HOTM Bonus Draw) | 2.5% | 22.4% | 53.2% | 92.0% | 99.9% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 5* | 1.5% | 14.0% | 36.5% | 77.9% | 99.9% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 5* | 0.5% | 4.9% | 14.0% | 39.4% | 91.8% | 99.3% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 4* | 5.7% | 44.4% | 82.8% | 99.7% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 4* | 2.85% | 25.0% | 58.0% | 94.5% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 Winter 3* | 14.2% | 78.4% | 99.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Get At Least 1 of a Particular Winter 3* | 7.1% | 52.1% | 89.0% | 99.9% | 100% | 100% |
Putting That in Perspective
-
If 1 million players each did 
Summons, 776,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter or Season 1 5* Hero -
If 1 million players each did
Summons, 420,000 of those players would NOT get Carol -
If 1 million players each did Summons, 221,000 of those players would NOT get a Winter 5* Hero
-
If 1 million players each did
Summons, 82,000 of those players would NOT get Krampus
Other 2020 Santa’s Challenge (Christmas) Threads
- Hero Threads:
- 🎅 Krampus -- 5* Ice/ Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Mother North -- 5* Nature/ Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Santa Claus -- 5* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Buddy -- 4* Nature/ Green from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Carol -- 4* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Frosty - 3* Ice/ Blue from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
- 🎅 Rudolph - 3* Fire/ Red from Santa's Challenge (Winter)
