🍻 [September 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends

This thread is for information and discussion on the SEPTEMBER 2020 Tavern of Legends Summon Portal, and sharing Summon Results.

For discussion of teams & strategy see: 🍻 [September 17, 2020] Tavern of Legends Event – FAQ & Team Discussion


:broken_heart: Avoiding Overspending & Heartache: a personal opinion note from @zephyr1 :bow_and_arrow:

I typically present Summon Portals dispassionately, providing information and letting players draw their own conclusions about the worth to them.

But I feel obligated to point out:

The Tavern of Legends Portal has the WORST odds of any Summon Portal in the entire game for getting a non-Season 1 Hero.

If you would be happy with ANY old HOTM, the odds are terrible, but perhaps acceptable for bigger spenders.

The more old HOTM you cross off the list of ones you’d be happy with, the worse the odds get.

Any players without large budgets would likely be better off spending their gems elsewhere. If you have a large budget, or have run out of literally anywhere else in the game to spend gems and still want to spend them anyway, Tavern of Legends might be for you. (I think you’d be better off just reducing your spending instead.)

For all other players — especially those who dream of a particular old HOTM from the list — I can’t recommend anything except making use of your free Legends Coins earned during the Tavern of Legends Quest, and moving on.

While some will get lucky, there is nothing to be had here but extreme disappointment for the vast majority.

You’re going to see alliance mates and Forum posters who get lucky. Please remember that the excitement of luck is contagious — but can lead to severe heartache if you pull impulsively and don’t experience the same. Celebrate their successes, but keep a level head in deciding and sticking to your own budget.

Please proceed with extreme caution when deciding on a budget for your Tavern Summons, and don’t spend more than you’d be happy to have spent on feeders.

As usual, We’ve provided an analysis of the Summon Appearance Rates farther down in this post.


:game_die: Tavern of Legends Portal Appearance Rates

The Tavern of Legends is getting updated per V31 release notes (below) to have adjusted portal odds; notably introducing the CURRENT HotM as well as a “featured” HotM/s

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

  • Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
  • Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
  • Legendary Classic Hero: 1.2%

Total= 98.7%

Past HotM

  • FEATURED returning HotM: 1%
  • Non-Featured Returning HotM: 0.3%

Total = 1.3%

Bonus Draw Chances

  • Current HotM: 1.3%
  • Secret Legendary Hero Myztero: 0.1%

.

Click for OLD ToL Portal Summon Rates

image

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

  • Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
  • Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
  • Legendary Classic Hero 1.2%

TOTAL: 98.7%

Past HOTM

  • Legendary Past Hero of the Month: 1.3%

SECRET BONUS DRAW

  • Legendary Secret Hero: 0.1%

Link to Legendary Secret Hero Information: 🍻 Myztero – 5* Purple/Dark -- "Secret" Tavern of Legends Hero


:star2: Featured Heroes

New in September 2020 is a featured set of heroes. Preliminarily it looks like 2 are the past HotM of that month (12 & 24 months previous) with the remaining 2 being randomly selected…? Will have to see how this pans out

12 months past 24 months past Other 1 Other 2
Grazul Khiona Gravemaker Perseus

Current HotM: Bai Yeong

Secret Mystery Featured Hero: Myztero


:clipboard: Included Past HOTM

Past Heroes of the Month are included in Legends Summon when 12 months have passed since their original release date.

Newest Addition to ToL Portal
GRAZUL
Past Heroes of the Month (HOTM) available:
  1. Hel
  2. Athena
  3. Ares
  4. Mushashi
  5. Alberich
  6. Thoth-Amun
  7. Perseus
  8. Natalya
  9. Zeline
  10. Delilah
  11. Aeron
  12. Alasie
  13. Gravemaker
  14. Gregorian
  15. Drake Fong
  16. Khiona
  17. Aegir
  18. Zimkitha
  19. Evelyn
  20. Onatel
  21. Kunchen
  22. Frida
  23. Anzogh
  24. Margaret
  25. Ranvir
  26. Seshat
  27. Miki
  28. Grazul — the latest addition this month

Note: The below information is based on old ToL Portal Odds. I will update as soon as I know the revised odds


:money_with_wings: Avoiding Overspending & Heartache :broken_heart:
Or: How many summons are needed to get an old HotM?
Below Maths is current as of July 2020 portal.
Subject to change as additional heroes are added to the Portal.

It’s important to remember that the Tavern of Legends Portal has the lowest odds for a specific hero of ANY portal… No amount of summoning will guarantee a Featured Hero.

You have a 0.05% chance of summoning a specific Past HotM from the Tavern of Legends Portal.

On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 0.499% chance of summoning a particular Past HotM (12.27% chance for ANY Past HotM).

But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.

Some useful insights:

(Each 30x Summons costs 8,000 gems or ~$79.99 USD).

# of Summons ~ USD Cost Odds for Specific Past HotM
100 $266.63 4.88%
211 $559.93 10.00%
1,386 $3,695.54 50.00%
5,990 $15,971.34 95.00%
9,209 $24,554.26 99.00%

Putting that in Perspective

  • 96 out of every 100 people will spend ~$266.63 USD and WON’T get a specific Past HotM by the 100th pull

  • If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 960,000 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero

  • 5 out of every 100 people who will spend ~$24,554.26 USD and WON’T get the specific Featured Hero by the 5,990th pull

  • If 1 Million players each summoned 5,990 times, 50,000 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero


:framed_picture: Odds Explained via Picture

A good graphic showing the overall odds & what you can expect from the various summons portals made by @Dorkus:


:gem: Summon Costs

  • Single: 300 Gems or 100 Legends Coins
  • 10x: 2600 Gems
  • 30x: 7500 Gems

:money_mouth_face: Offers

prices in USD before tax



:link: Related Threads

Historical Tavern Summons Threads:

5 Likes

Reminder of this key nugget:

2 Likes

I am curious about two things:

  1. Will be the summon rates for old HotM the same plus the usual current HotM chance? Cuz if yes, then this portal would suddenly become one of best for those aiming for non S1 5* only (ie. someone having most of or all event/S2/S3 4*) while not having any or few past HotM (or not having Featured HotM).
  2. Will the ultimate offer cost the same at these conditions? That would make it the best offer, assuming 1.

But why do I have bad feeling there is a catch somewhere in there? :thinking:

1 Like

though many said this is the worst portal to pull 5star heroes, i like pull from here since i can feel to pull 30 heroes with chepaer price as i never pull 30 heroes with gems :grinning: :smiley:

featuring Gravemaker???

2 Likes

Yes, he’s part of the summons being a previous HOTM. But as it says above, the banner is from a PAST ToL banner and will be replaced with the new one…“when available”.

yep, i’ve read but… i’m pretty sure there wasn’t featured heroes till this month!

No, they’ve done them each time. Seshat was one last month. As the slowly introduce more HOTM’s, they’re “featuring” them.

-Legends Summon changes:

Current Hero of the Month is available in the Legends Summon
Featured heroes added to the Legends Summon

Was worst. They added current HotM and some heroes are Featured, which might make it worthwile if odds are okay. But we’ve to see them yet, so it also may stay the worst portal still.

Hopefully not, because the amount of work for 2 mediocre pull was too damn high.

1 Like

Agree. I’m going to do the stages, but at this point, it seems more worthwhile to save up and wait a year and then do a few pulls at once.

And why do they show all the ones I don’t have first and after scrolling past ALL of them then they show the ones I already have.
To make me more tempted to spend my gems because they look like a good chance of getting them? I have spent more 10 pulls and get 9 out of ten 3* that I have and if I’m lucky I get a 4* or 5* I already have.
I have done all the events and this is enough to stop me from doing any of them.
I only have 1 TC20 for two months now and I have received all 3* and 1 4*. Do I need two TC20 going at the same time? ( when I can afford to level my iron intake that is.

Gravemaker featured along with Perseus and Khiona? Should’ve guessed SG would pull something like this :joy::joy:

Updating OP to include the new odds and the featured heroes. I will update the “maths” later tonight or tomorrow.

@Dorkus, not sure if this affects your graphic any.

New odds:

Featured Heroes:

Initial thoughts:
Grazul is the newly added hero to the portal (12 months from release).

Khiona who was 24 months ago is also featured.

Gravemaker and Perseus don’t seem to hold any significant date to them (one was June 2019 other December 2018 – 27 months and 33 months respectively). I preliminarily hypothesise that these two HotM may be randomly (or pseudorandomly) selected from the options.

2 Likes

Thanks for this, @Guvnor.

However, this new summoning odds at the current ToL portal is worst than before. Previously, all past HOTMs may be obtained at a uniform rate of 1.3%. Now, the probability of getting past HOTMs has been reduced as it is 1% getting the featured past HOTMs and a measly 0.3% getting the non-featured past HOTMs, but it does not total to 1.3% as the current appearance rate would only add up to a max of 1%.

@Petri @KiraSG @mhalttu @EmpiresPuzzles

Please fix the ToL odds. If I may suggest, it should be AT LEAST 1.3% for featured past HOTMs and maybe AT LEAST 0.3% for non-featured past HOTMs. Thank you so much.

2 Likes

The total odds for getting a past HotM are the same…?

Updated portal: 1% + 0.3% = 1.3%

Old portal: 1.3%

Old and New are shown in the OP if you want proof.

1 Like

I’m sorry, but that is an erroneous mathematical assumption. Adding 1% to a different event of 0.3% is not equal to 1.3%. This can be clarified by any competent mathematicians or statisticians in here.

EDIT: Compare an event which has a probability of 100%. This is not the same to 10 events at 10% probability each.

I like this change and I think the portal got rather fair now.

Was hoping maybe for 2 featured heroes and not 4, it’s still too unlikely to get the one hero you are after but hey, better than nothing, and can get current HotM in the process.

GM to open things up, that Ultimate Legend offer gonna sell like crazy this month :rofl: Personally not interested, got him finally in May Atlantis. Would hug Grazul but better hoard the coins till Drake returns…

I like the changes to the portal summoning odds. Thanks for adding in the current HOTM bonus draw as well as featured past legendaries. It is still a long shot, but the featured HOTM will guide me when to drop my pulls.

You know what, this summon was nice to me finally. I got two heroes out of a ten pull and one free one from the challenge. Sure they’re Frida and Musashi, but they’re not repeats. And this month I also already pulled two Bai Yeong. It’s lucky September for me. :partying_face:

2 Likes

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