🍻 [November 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends

This thread is for information and discussion on the November 2020 Tavern of Legends Summon Portal, and sharing Summon Results.

For discussion of teams & strategy see: 🍻 [November 19, 2020] Tavern of Legends Event – FAQ & Team Discussion



:game_die: Tavern of Legends Portal Appearance Rates

The Tavern of Legends has a second updated to the portal odds, specifically moving 0.6% from the Season 1 5 hero over to the Non-Featured past HotM.*

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

  • Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
  • Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
  • Legendary Classic Hero: 0.6%

Total= 98.1%

Past HotM

  • FEATURED returning HotM: 1%
  • Non-Featured Returning HotM: 0.9%

Total = 1.9%

Bonus Draw Chances

  • Current HotM: 1.3%
  • Secret Legendary Hero Myztero: 0.1%

.

Click for OLD ToL Portal Summon Rates

Pre-October 2020


image

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

  • Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
  • Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
  • Legendary Classic Hero 1.2%

TOTAL: 98.7%

Past HOTM

  • Legendary Past Hero of the Month: 1.3%

SECRET BONUS DRAW

  • Legendary Secret Hero: 0.1%

Link to Legendary Secret Hero Information: 🍻 Myztero – 5* Purple/Dark -- "Secret" Tavern of Legends Hero


:star2: Featured Heroes

The first two Featured HotM are the two newly added to the Portal.
The Other Two have no clear trend yet. Both of these however are from June (2018 & 2019) however it’s unclear if this is coincidence or indicative of something.

Below are the featured heroes with links to their discussion threads.

13 months past 12 months past Featured HotM 3 Featured HotM 4
Kingston Neith Hel Ranvir

Current HotM: Glenda

Secret Mystery Featured Hero: Myztero


:clipboard: Included Past HOTM

Past Heroes of the Month are included in Legends Summon when 12 months have passed since their original release date.

Newest Addition to ToL Portal
KINGSTON
NEITH
Past Heroes of the Month (HOTM) available:
  1. Hel
  2. Athena
  3. Ares
  4. Mushashi
  5. Alberich
  6. Thoth-Amun
  7. Perseus
  8. Natalya
  9. Zeline
  10. Delilah
  11. Aeron
  12. Alasie
  13. Gravemaker
  14. Gregorian
  15. Drake Fong
  16. Khiona
  17. Aegir
  18. Zimkitha
  19. Evelyn
  20. Onatel
  21. Kunchen
  22. Frida
  23. Anzogh
  24. Margaret
  25. Ranvir
  26. Seshat
  27. Miki
  28. Grazul
  29. Kingston
  30. Neith


:money_with_wings: Avoiding Overspending & Heartache :broken_heart:
Or: How many summons are needed to get an old HotM?
Below Maths is current as of October 2020 portal.
Subject to change as additional heroes are added to the Portal.

It’s important to remember that the Tavern of Legends Portal has the lowest odds for a specific hero of ANY portal… No amount of summoning will guarantee a desired Hero.

This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x, 2500x, 5000x & 10000x). Based on 10,000 gems costing 99.99 USD, I have also added an approximate $ cost too.

Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

Some useful insights:

(Each 30x Summons costs 8,000 gems or ~$79.99 USD).

1x
US$3.00
10x
US$26.00
30x
US$74.99
100x
US$250.97
500x
US$1,251.87
1500x
US$3,749.63
2500x
US$6,025.40
5000x
US$12,500.75
10000x
US$24,998.50
Any Past HotM 0.019 0.1746 0.4376 0.8531 0.9999 1 1 1 1
Any Featured Past HotM 0.01 0.0956 0.2603 0.6340 0.9934 0.9999 1 1 1
Any Non-Featured Past HotM 0.009 0.0864 0.2376 0.5951 0.9891 0.9999 1 1 1
SPECIFIC Featured Past HotM 0.0025 0.0247 0.0723 0.2214 0.7139 0.9766 0.9981 1.0000 1
SPECIFIC Non-Featured Past HotM 0.00036 0.0036 0.0107 0.0354 0.1648 0.4173 0.5935 0.8348 0.9727

You have a 0.25% chance of summoning a specific FEATURED Past HotM from the Tavern of Legends Portal. For a NON-FEATURED Past HotM it is just 0.036% chance.

On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 2.83% chance of summoning a particular Past HotM (2.47% for a specific featured and 0.36% for a specific Non-Featured).

On Average, in a 10-pull you have a 17.46% chance of summoning ANY past HotM.

But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.

Putting that in Perspective

  • 78 out of every 100 people will spend ~$250.97 USD and WON’T get a specific Past Featured HotM by the 100th pull

  • If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 778,557 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero

  • 4 out of every 100 people who will spend ~$24,998.5 USD and WON’T get the specific Non-Featured Hero by the 10,000th pull

  • If 1 Million players each summoned 10,000 times, 27,306 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero


:framed_picture: Odds Explained via Picture

A good graphic showing the overall odds & what you can expect from the various summons portals made by @Dorkus:


:gem: Summon Costs

  • Single: 300 Gems or 100 Legends Coins
  • 10x: 2600 Gems
  • 30x: 7500 Gems

:money_mouth_face: Offers

prices in USD before tax



:link: Related Threads

Historical Tavern Summons Threads:

5 Likes

All offers. All 3* Duplicates

Hel… F$&@ing Hel.

20 awesome hel’s

8 Likes

11 Likes

First summon:

11 Likes

Come on here to see those two pulls and I’m sat here looking at Li Xiu number 248 haha

Finished stage 9 to get me 100+ coins: BERDEN

woohoo!
2x Berden today haha

1 Like

So looks like the 4 featured heroes will be the two HOTM that is 12 months and 13 months old, plus two randomly chosen ones…

At this rate, I think ToL summon portal will be even worse starting from July 2021 coz at least two of the featured heroes will be Noor, Zocc, Zulag etc… Basically those HOTMs that ppl don’t really want and yet, their dropping rate will be so much higher than the good ones that everyone wants. :joy:

I Got - Kashrek, Isshtak, Azar, Cyprian, Berden aaaaaand… Tibertus…

I would have been Happy with ANY of the Miki’s on offer :blush:

Another one legendary summon in TOL


First of the free pulls was these two lovely ladies😁 Second was Tib😐

14 Likes

Did a 30× thinking with the increased odds it would be a good bet. Got two 5* - both were Marjana, who I already have maxed.

Back to the drawing board :man_shrugging:

1 Like

I usually do quite well at this portal (have had a former hotm or missing I didn’t have each time it has been run so far if memory serves) Really would like it to give me an Evelyn this time round bit I dont chase individual heroes.

Just finished stage 9 and used my coins. Got a 5 star, unfortunately it was a 4th Vivica. Other summon was a Valen.

Those who came to me for 3 call: Wuo kong, Cyprian, Gunnar :frowning_face:
Unfortunately I have no chance of calling a hero :frowning_face:

Lucked out with my first pull:

Waiting for my WE to refill/monster chest to reset before I continue with level 6.

11 Likes

This is my luckiest portal… when tavern was launched pulled alby with coins…

This time - and i have the tabards and saved wizard emblems…

image

25 Likes

Got Gan Ju and Li Xiu with my freebies. If the 30 pulls for 30 € comes up on Sunday, I’m thinking about biting the bullet, now that the odds are closer to being in my favor.

How the heck you are getting anything? I think I already did like ten pulls and all I got was 3* and maybe two 4* I already have… :confused:

I can finally celebrate my first lucky pull ever from Tavern (and my first lucky pull since July…). I got Miki :heart_eyes: :heart_eyes:
So so happy, even though i already have him and still couldn’t manage to max him beyond 3.60. I normally wouldn’t be too much thrilled, one Miki should be enough. But seeing how deep benches are getting more and more of use, i’m sure i will find great use for both of them.
I’m also looking forward to some particular fastmana raid/ war :see_no_evil:

5 Likes

My 3 pulls - Tyrum, Rigard and Belith.

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