This thread is for information and discussion on the November 2020 Tavern of Legends Summon Portal, and sharing Summon Results.
For discussion of teams & strategy see: 🍻 [November 19, 2020] Tavern of Legends Event – FAQ & Team Discussion
Tavern of Legends Portal Appearance Rates
The Tavern of Legends has a second updated to the portal odds, specifically moving 0.6% from the Season 1 5 hero over to the Non-Featured past HotM.*
Season 1 (Classic) Heroes
- Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
- Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
- Legendary Classic Hero: 0.6%
Total= 98.1%
Past HotM
- FEATURED returning HotM: 1%
- Non-Featured Returning HotM: 0.9%
Total = 1.9%
Bonus Draw Chances
- Current HotM: 1.3%
- Secret Legendary Hero Myztero: 0.1%
.
Click for OLD ToL Portal Summon Rates
Pre-October 2020
Season 1 (Classic) Heroes
- Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
- Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
- Legendary Classic Hero 1.2%
TOTAL: 98.7%
Past HOTM
- Legendary Past Hero of the Month: 1.3%
SECRET BONUS DRAW
- Legendary Secret Hero: 0.1%
Link to Legendary Secret Hero Information: 🍻 Myztero – 5* Purple/Dark -- "Secret" Tavern of Legends Hero
Featured Heroes
The first two Featured HotM are the two newly added to the Portal.
The Other Two have no clear trend yet. Both of these however are from June (2018 & 2019) however it’s unclear if this is coincidence or indicative of something.
Below are the featured heroes with links to their discussion threads.
Current HotM: Glenda
Secret Mystery Featured Hero: Myztero
Included Past HOTM
Past Heroes of the Month are included in Legends Summon when 12 months have passed since their original release date.
| Newest Addition to ToL Portal |
|---|
| KINGSTON |
| NEITH |
Past Heroes of the Month (HOTM) available:
- Hel
- Athena
- Ares
- Mushashi
- Alberich
- Thoth-Amun
- Perseus
- Natalya
- Zeline
- Delilah
- Aeron
- Alasie
- Gravemaker
- Gregorian
- Drake Fong
- Khiona
- Aegir
- Zimkitha
- Evelyn
- Onatel
- Kunchen
- Frida
- Anzogh
- Margaret
- Ranvir
- Seshat
- Miki
- Grazul
- Kingston
- Neith
 Avoiding Overspending & Heartache  |
|---|
| Or: How many summons are needed to get an old HotM? |
| Below Maths is current as of October 2020 portal. Subject to change as additional heroes are added to the Portal. |
It’s important to remember that the Tavern of Legends Portal has the lowest odds for a specific hero of ANY portal… No amount of summoning will guarantee a desired Hero.
This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x, 2500x, 5000x & 10000x). Based on 10,000 gems costing 99.99 USD, I have also added an approximate $ cost too.
Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
Some useful insights:
(Each 30x Summons costs 8,000 gems or ~$79.99 USD).
| 1x |
10x |
30x |
100x |
500x |
1500x |
2500x |
5000x |
10000x |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any Past HotM | 0.019 | 0.1746 | 0.4376 | 0.8531 | 0.9999 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Any Featured Past HotM | 0.01 | 0.0956 | 0.2603 | 0.6340 | 0.9934 | 0.9999 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Any Non-Featured Past HotM | 0.009 | 0.0864 | 0.2376 | 0.5951 | 0.9891 | 0.9999 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SPECIFIC Featured Past HotM | 0.0025 | 0.0247 | 0.0723 | 0.2214 | 0.7139 | 0.9766 | 0.9981 | 1.0000 | 1 |
| SPECIFIC Non-Featured Past HotM | 0.00036 | 0.0036 | 0.0107 | 0.0354 | 0.1648 | 0.4173 | 0.5935 | 0.8348 | 0.9727 |
You have a 0.25% chance of summoning a specific FEATURED Past HotM from the Tavern of Legends Portal. For a NON-FEATURED Past HotM it is just 0.036% chance.
On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 2.83% chance of summoning a particular Past HotM (2.47% for a specific featured and 0.36% for a specific Non-Featured).
On Average, in a 10-pull you have a 17.46% chance of summoning ANY past HotM.
But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.
Putting that in Perspective
-
78 out of every 100 people will spend
~$250.97 USDand WON’T get a specific Past Featured HotM by the 100th pull -
If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 778,557 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero
-
4 out of every 100 people who will spend
~$24,998.5 USDand WON’T get the specific Non-Featured Hero by the 10,000th pull -
If 1 Million players each summoned 10,000 times, 27,306 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero
Odds Explained via Picture
A good graphic showing the overall odds & what you can expect from the various summons portals made by @Dorkus:
Summon Costs
- Single: 300 Gems or 100 Legends Coins
- 10x: 2600 Gems
- 30x: 7500 Gems
Offers
prices in USD before tax
Related Threads
Historical Tavern Summons Threads:
- 🍻 [September 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends
- 🍻 [August 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends
- 🍻 [July 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends
- 🍻 [June 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends
- 🍻 [May 2020] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends
