Raid Stats: Telluria Edition

It now feels important to add this: These stats are from BEFORE the Telluria / Vela (and other heroes) re-balancing which was planned for V30 but ended up being implemented in mid-May 2020 (before V30).

I felt I needed to do a (relatively) quick edition to check up on Telluria. Without knowing it, I recently fought my 100th battle against her and I’m pretty much already done with her. Let’s dig into why.

FWIW in reading this please keep in mind that I do NOT have either Grazul or Zimkitha

Previous Editions

Raid Stats Edition 1
Raid Stats Edition 2
Raid Stats Edition 3

Tank Win Rates

Before looking at Telluria’s win rate we first need the proper context. Here are the win rates of some formidable tanks, from my sample of 6,392 total raids. I think it’s more comprehensible as the win rate of the TANK on the defense I’m attacking (so we’re talking about how often I LOSE); I will present the figures in that way.

Tank Win Percentage
Gravemaker 11.00%
Isarnia 10.00%
Black Knight 8.93%
Kunchen 8.48%
Elena 8.47%
Cos Vivica 7.69%
Yunan 7.69%
Onatel 7.12%
Richard 6.23%
Santa Claus 6.17%
Delilah 6.14%
Guinevere 5.42%
Drake Fong 2.99%
Justice 2.90%
Aegir 2.75%
Ursena 2.22%
Boss Wolf 0.00%
Cos Richard 0.00%

In my 101 fights with Telluria she has beaten me SIXTEEN times. That’s a 15.84% win rate, easily topping the table, and by a good bit. She as far ahead of Gravemaker as Gravemaker is ahead of ~Richard, Santa Claus, and Delilah.

I don’t know a better way to express it. It’s stunning how dominant a tank she is right now.

Vela

One huge reason for that is how perfectly Vela complements her. Vela is the right element, has a (to a red stack) devastating special that fires at fast mana, and is in a good class for a defender.

With the warning that we’re now going to look at a subset of a small sample of only 101 raids, I think some trends are beginning to emerge nonetheless. Here’s Telluria’s record with Vela in various positions:

Position Wins Losses
Left Wing 0 0
Left Flank 1 6
Right Flank 5 17
Right Wing 2 3

Telluria beats me ~25% of the time if Vela is also on the field. That combo accounts for half of my losses against a Telluria tank, despite the fact that Vela’s on the field for only about a third of my fights against Telluria.

Perhaps the problem is just that Telluria’s mana impairment makes it hard for Mitsuko to get reflect ready in time? NO. I mean, yes, that is hard, but that’s not the real problem. Let’s look at Telluria’s win rate with non-Vela fast mana ice heroes on the field. In this sample those heroes were Alasie, Alice, Finley, Magni, Master Lepus, and Misandra (there’s no reason for me to break them out individually).

Position Wins Losses
Left Wing 1 7
Left Flank 0 6
Right Flank 2 11
Right Wing 1 11

Telluria is winning ‘only’ ~10% of the time with a non-Vela fast blue on the field. A few observations on that:

  • Refer to the tank win rate table - a 10% win rate would still be near the top.
  • The difference between Telluria + fast non-Vela winning 10% and Telluria + Vela winning 25% is immense. Telluria firing makes her flanks very likely to fire. When that is Vela, the fight is over. When it’s a different blue it sucks, but can maybe be fought through.
  • Telluria’s win rate with a non-Vela fast blue of 10% may actually be outright LOW. Telluria is faring better against me with a non fast blue (or no blue) if she can’t have Vela. She is 4-24 without ANY fast ice hero, good for an ~14% win rate. That may just be an artifact of a small sample size, but I suspect perhaps not. Telluria’s mana slow is so powerful that even an average speed flank is now likely to fire, so the superior damage / effect of a, say, Richard, may actually be better than a Magni (whose shield is more redundant with Telluria’s HoT and minions) at that point. As for non blues, I’ll say anecdotally that I have found Black Knight and Freya to both be particularly formidable flanks for Telluria.
  • Lastly, there isn’t really any point in digging deeper about if the fast blue (Vela or not) is at flank or wing. There may be something there for the future, but now I think we’re definitely slicing the sample too small.

Tank Win Rates 2

Let’s revisit the table I posted earlier, but I’ll include Telluria and clip it to the top 10.

Tank Win Percentage
Telluria, with Vela 23.53%
Telluria, all teams (with and without Vela) 15.84%
Telluria, with any team WITHTOUT Vela 11.94%
Gravemaker 11.00%
Isarnia 10.00%
Black Knight 8.93%
Kunchen 8.48%
Elena 8.47%
Cos Vivica 7.69%
Yunan 7.69%

The conclusions I am pointed towards, rather forcefully:

  1. Telluria is killing me.
  2. Vela’s element specific effects are really crushing me (the extra damage and attack debuff against fire heroes).

Precedent / Comparison

I could not find any precedent or comparison in my files. My first thought was to look at Zeline. Her extra damage against ice heroes and attack debuff feels very similar to Vela. Unfortunately, I have only 10 instances of her being on the field with Gravemaker, Black Knight, or Elena. Being a much older hero she may just not be out there as much (and many of those players may have emblemed Guinevere or Hel instead, where any player, new or old can walk in and have recently bought Telluria and Vela and perhaps not have e.g., Alberich to compete for emblems).

For other strong tanks, I just don’t feel there’s an equivalent complement. Guinevere would need Ursena to do extra damage against dark instead of holy. I may take a look at Kunchen + Poseidon in the future, but I’ve done enough work on this to convince myself that Telluria + Vela is incredibly powerful and appears to be sui generis.

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I’m surprised to see Isarnia doing so well as the tank! Why do you to think that is? I can usually find 6 green tiles to hit her with before the tank goes (assuming 3 green attackers).

But not surprised with Telluria/Vela.

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Funnily, that came up from two other posters in Edition 3! I wrote about it there, and I think / hope you’ll find it informative. Anecdotally my response would be that, yes, she often does die early. But when she doesn’t, you lose. Same as Elena.

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Do you keep track of team power or the number of emblems on the tanks? I’m curious how much that has an impact, although perhaps it creates too small of a sample.

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probably ivy is going up against my team;) the power of isarnia! just kidding.

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I think the value and use case for grazul skyrocketed after telluria and vela became a part of almost every defense team.

I’ve been stacking drake joon and vivica plus grazul and marj against these teams with a lot of luck. the combo of blinding, curing and ignoring all the dots helps a bit.

it is exceptionally boring though, more so than ever, the variety in defense teams seems to have just outright vanished. lol I dont understand how it seems like everybody but me got telluria.

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I’m curious, do you only attack with mono-red or have you expanded/varied your approach. I ask because of the glaring impact that Vela has on your success and I wonder how you might fare with one or two cleansers, off color, on your team.

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Tracking TP and Emblems

@Ruskin505, I’m surprised I don’t get more questions about that. I do NOT track emblems. I do track TP, so I could use the base power of each card, make a guess on troops, and then roughly back out the average number of emblems per hero on a given team. Imperfect, but JUST team power was a decision I made early on to save oodles of time (data entry with emblem level would take much much longer).

Team Power

Here’s what I can say:
Average TP of team with Telluria I fought: 4,434
Average TP of Telluria team that beat me: 4,506
Average TP of Telluria team that I beat: 4,420

That suggests the TP (and therefore emblems) are having an impact. It’s one of the many things I’ve had in the back of my mind - to perhaps essentially normalize all my raids. That is, what I really should talk about is how my win rate against these Telluria teams compares with the average 4,434 TP team.

And this number is quite a bit higher than the TP numbers I’ve seen in the past, strongly suggesting that Telluria owners have stronger teams on average. Here’s a table I posted in the third edition.

Period My Team Power Opponent’s Team Power
8/1/19 - 8/26/19 4,008 4,095
8/26/19 - 11/25/19 4,103 4,157
11/25/19 - 3/17/20 4,225 4,259
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I ran mono against her twice just to see what would happen. Neither was red.

It’s hard to eyeball trends out of only 100 raids, but Rigard has been a fixture and is in almost every raid against Telluria (sometimes with Seshat, sometimes with Victor). Ariel has also been common, sometimes paired with Costumed Sonya. Those are all the cleansing options I have, sadly.

I have yet to find a combo I like (or even just feel decent about) and it is true that I often just pack the rest of the spots with fire heroes, though I am of course inclined to tone that down when Vela is flanking. The bottom line is that I do not have an answer for her yet.

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What are team compositions and team emblems if the composition is mono or 4-1. Also, more specifically what is the win % of different team compositions and is there a significant relationship between those colors and Telly tanks?

I don’t know if you have the data, but whats the average bad to good boards you receive? Good being with a diamond, and bad being 1 match or less on the opening board?

What is your general run time on these matches? Do you generally go into damage increase for when time runs out, for games that are wins?

Sorry for being 20 questions here, but I’d like to know the variances on team compositions and color impact.

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I don’t tend to experience going against Isarnia as tank, but I definitely agree with Elena.
I always kind of turn my nose up thinking “haha easy”… then I have no tiles and it’s game over lol.

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Hi, @Aabbott21, I think the questions you’re asking are good, but with only 101 raids it feels like drawing a conclusion like, ‘I should always attack 3/2 because my win rate with that is better than 4/1,’ would be premature.

But here’s my record:
5/0: 1-1
4/1: 25-7
3/2: 59-8

Team composition has varied so much that it’s difficult to answer that question. What I can say is 4/1 has most typically been Rigard +17, Gravemaker +17, Mitsuko +11, Anzogh +0, Costumed Boldtusk +18. 3/2 has varied a lot more, sitting Anzogh or Mitsuko and putting in Victor +0 or Seshat +18. Or taking out the purples and putting in Ariel +0 and Costumed Sonya +14.

I don’t keep data on the start board, nor the time of the raid. But against Telluria I don’t think I have ever run into the damage increase.

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This was bathing in a hot spa…

Beautiful, relaxing data…no aggressive generalisation, prejorative adjectives or snarky post script.

If you want to have your opinion taken seriously and effect the opinions of others, this is the way to do it :point_up:

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A lot of people owe us an apology.

It like any new shiny toy, you have learn to play with it and around it. With time and reading, Telly is getting less difficult but getting REALLY tire of seeing the green monster.

Challenge

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I’ve been tracking lately raids against Telluria, always with a Vela flank: I’m 48-7 since I’ve started to track, which is pretty good I think but way lower than my normal win %. I have Ariel, Mitsuko, Chef Boldtusk, Marjana, and Zimkitha. This is what I’ve noticed: they will try to kill Mitsuko 9 times out of 10 first. If I lose it’s because Mitsuko is killed early and Vela/Finley run rampant. Even when I win she seems to be targeted and killed first. I’m convinced that if Vela is there they are programmed to kill Mitsuko. Now, I haven’t moved her yet (will move her to another spot and try again), so maybe positioning matters?

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Good stuff, @IvyTheTerrible! Thank you for this comprehensive breakdown.

I’m also curious if you have data with Telluria and Jean-François in the defense.

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I guess what Ivy splits four ways here is what everyone with a bit of common sense is thinking… Telluria / Vela is a bad joke… I’m actually impressed with Ivy’s data collection, but I think that the data only underlines the obvious… Telluria / Vela is a bad joke and it takes the fun out of the game… SG was too slow to realize that, and now their hands are tied… there’s no way they can nerf the most OP couple in the history of the game now, without getting every T/V proud owner yelling out loud, so they try to do what they do best… get some counter measures out there asap (see Malosi)… only the counter meassures are of the wrong color…

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But just wait until you see the next Fire/Nature combo.

Then you’ll get an Ice/Fire combo for them, and then we have a full circle of “Pick Your Poison.”

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