Raid Stats Edition 3

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With the release of the Season 3 heroes it felt like an appropriate time to close another raid log. This edition is comprised of nearly 3,000 raids and I will be rolling out some different features.

I have a number of other ideas in the pipeline, but they are time consuming to implement. For example, I am looking at potentially combining all the logs to present a more comprehensive data set. I am also looking at doing more with individual heroes and classes, accounting for the most common positioning, and their win rates.

The problem is that changes of this type require me to build in many new features, some of which require re-formatting my current reports. This is no small task as the file I’m using is already massive; it takes Excel close to a minute to open it now.

Anyway, all of that is to say that if you have some ideas or if there’s something you are interested in, let me know! Some of the ideas I’m now presenting / working on are suggestions I got from forum posters.

Previous editions

Raid Stats Edition 1
Raid Stats Edition 2

Record

2775 - 123
95.8% wins
Longest winning streak: 109

Team Power is on the Rise

Period My Team Power Opponent’s Team Power
8/1/19 - 8/26/19 4,008 4,095
8/26/19 - 11/25/19 4,103 4,157
11/25/19 - 3/17/20 4,225 4,259

Conclusion: the price of poker is going up.

Underrated Attackers

For reference, here are a few well regarded heroes and my win rate when attacking with them.

Hero Win Rate
Evelyn 97.2%
Gravemaker 96.4%
Kingston 97.5%
Mother North 96.0%
Seshat 96.8%

And here are a few that might surprise you:

Hero Win Rate
Boldtusk +18 96.5%
Costumed Rigard +17 96.1%
Sonya +14 + Costume Bonus 97.9%

Conclusion: don’t be afraid to emblem your best four stars - it is definitely NOT a waste. They are invaluable in 4 star raid tournaments (and events if that’s your thing), serviceable in 5 star raid tournaments (and events), and more than viable in Diamond Arena raids.

I have posted very strong win rates in past logs with Buddy, Caedmon, Proteus, etc. as well.

Underrated Defenders

I will be expressing the below numbers in terms of the DEFENDER’S win rate (or my loss rate against them, if that makes more sense to you). Keep in mind that, on average, defenders posted a 4.2% win rate in this sample. The best defenders approached the 10% mark (a few exceeded it). For example, Gravemaker won 8.2% of my raids against him.

Hero Win Rate
Costumed Rigard 5.9%
Isarnia 5.7%
Kiril 7.1%
Musashi 12.7%

Notes

  • I have left off many heroes that are strong in defense because I think everyone realizes they’re strong. For example, Alberich, Alice, Black Knight, Costumed Joon, Drake Fong, Hel, Kageburado, Poseidon, Zimkitha, and others all posted stellar win rates against me.
  • Costumed Rigard: given how inexpensive he is and how useful he is on offense and against titans, it seems clear to me that he’s one of the best and most valuable heroes in the game.
  • Isarnia is particularly notable because she managed that figure despite the fact that I have Mitsuko.
  • Kiril is a real surprise to me, and that’s over a large number of attacks - he’s not exactly uncommon since everyone has access to him.
  • Musashi is my number one pick for underrated defender and I’ve noted his strong performance in past logs. He’s the right speed and his talent makes him difficult to remove from the wing.

HOTM Prevalence

There are a number of factors, like the hero’s competition at a given position, for emblems, etc., but we can use their presence in the Diamond Raid Arena as a rough proxy for their defensive prowess (obviously this in no way speaks to their value as an raid attacker, titan hero, etc.).

For readability I have minimized labels in the below table, but this is August 2019 - February 2020, showing the number of times I encountered each hero. A hyphen indicates a time before the hero was released.

Hero Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Miki 1 7 3 11 18 12 9
Grazul - 2 9 19 24 26 26
Kingston - - 2 37 80 75 95
Neith - - - 4 16 18 31
Grimble - - - - 2 8 9
Vela - - - - - 7 28
Jean-François - - - - - - 4

Some thoughts:

  • No hero has a strong presence in the month of their release. This was surprising to me, as I know many top player’s store resources and power level the best heroes.
  • Even in their second month a significant portion of the player’s who will field that hero in their future defense do not have them ready yet. Look at Kingston: his second month count is still low, such thiat it doubles in his third month.
  • Barring a change, the community seems to have decided on Grazul and Neith. They’re unexceptional in defense. Kingston is the only superstar in this batch.
  • Projecting ahead, it will be very interesting to see if Vela’s march numbers spike. Her second month jump looks a lot more like Kingston than Grazul, so if that trend continues she may become a common defender.
  • Similarly, it looks like we’ll need to get though April to draw a conclusion on Jean-François.
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good stuff! I’ve been using isarnia as my defense team tank since emblems came out with great results. interesting to see your data surface her as a potential over performer.

question on your win rate: what is your raiding strategy? are you mono or 3:2? and with such a high win rate, how are you dealing with bad boards? I find i have at least one or two boards that are difficult (if even possible) to recover from for every 6 or 7 raids I engage in.

request on your data: can you share out the spreadsheet showing how each of the heroes performed?

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Raid Configuration

Configuration Usage Win Rate
4/1 11.2% 94.4%
3/2 57.1% 96.5%
3/1/1 31.7% 94.9%

I don’t mono. I don’t know if it’s more effective or not, but I don’t find it as enjoyable. Also, I do think different configurations are better suited to different heroes, playing styles, and board moves. Others have their own opinion and I think that’s fine - different players are finding success with different strategies, as should be true in games.

I have long thought 3/2 is the strongest for my roster and style. Usually if I move from it it’s because I feel the defense forces me to. For example, a particularly strong tank, a hole in my roster, etc. Generally, the benefit of having a minor stack (of two) is that it often can still do appreciable damage to the tank and should be effective against a flank later (and counter some things the defense does). If you’re surrendering that advantage, you’d better get something pretty good back in return. Like that single 1 hero you’re using had better be powerful. A top shelf healer, for example. Gravemaker also seems to fit that category. Even Mitsuko occasionally, as she’s there to outright kill a blue hero.

Bad Boards

This isn’t tracked in my file in any way, but I can tell you my conceptual approach to this sort of situation.

I pretty much always have a strong 3tack against the tank. If I kill them with tiles, cool - good board / good tile replacement.

If the tank is going to fire I generally want my minor stack to have some counter. An example would be bringing Victor against Kunchen. Generally, a cleanser, someone who flips a debuff (e.g., Boldtusk against Richard), or almost any healer.

If you don’t have the tiles to utilize your 3tack or your minor stack it’s probably a loss no matter what else you do since you’ve caused minimal to no damage and have very little mana. Thank U, Next.

File Sharing

I think it’s way too big for that, plus I’m overhauling it right now. It’s changed substantially and structurally almost every day in the past week as I add features, build in error checks, etc.

But I am happy to try to answer questions. For example, I took a deeper look at Isarnia tanks, though you didn’t have a specific query.

I faced 45 Isarnia tanks in this sample. 6 beat me. Even with a relevant small sample warning as we look at more specific situations, that ~13% win rate is promising. She’s very problematic when she fires. In many ways I think she’s like Elena. Comparatively frail (next to traditional tanks), slow mana, but I think vastly underrated at the position by the community.

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interesting, thanks for the follow up deep dive.

have you tracked your win-loss rate against configurations and pairings? obviously the latest trend right now is tel+vel. I am curious how certain heroes perform (better, worse, the same) based on their traditional and non traditional pairings and 3 stackings.

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Yep, great thought! What you’re describing is one of the things I am considering as I try to re-jigger my files.

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Love this Ivy. Thanks for continuing to do it. I’m also particularly curious about your run ins with Isarnia… I see you mentioned her at tank in a follow up comment. Is that where she had the most success against you? How did she do on flank? And I’m curious if you think it was her damage or the resulting defense down that had the bigger impact? That may be difficult to determine. Basically I’m thinking of embleming her for a defense configuration and I’m trying to think through what part of her special has biggest impact from flank spot

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I use my Isarnia with a mixed emblem config (not pure one way or the other) and non-mana 4* troops level 20 ( somehow I dont have the mana troops for blue yet). I think her greatest strength is that she is completely underestimated. Most users have learned everything they know about her from before emblems and assume she is squishy. (she is not, when I raid with her, there is not a single hero that can 1 hit kill her). My theory is people stack against the 2 red heroes in my lineup instead of against isarnia and it costs them.

I havent seen footage of anyone raiding my team, but I suspect if drake goes off after isarnia has debuffed, it is a gauranteed 3 kill against most teams. my hope is grazul is fast enough to keep isarnia alive and safe from debuffs long enough to go off twice if necessary.

that all said, if I had kunchen or costumed vivica or telluria or whoever, I’d use them instead :rofl:

I dont think you need to go pure defense config for her to be tank, and you also want to make sure you boost her attack enough for her to remain lethal against the best greens in the game that are coming for. interestingly, many greens are buffers, which works in Isarnia’s favor.

Screenshot_20200318-110055_Empires
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Isarnia by Position

W-L record presented from Isarnia’s perspective.

Left wing: 0-57
Left flank: 3-41
Tank: 6-39
Right flank: 2-33
Right wing: 2-46

So yes, she did best against me from the tank position. By quite a bit too. However, keep in mind I am a Mitusko owner, which means as the defense slides Isarnia towards the corner there is a greater and greater chance I have Mitsuko ready in time. In general, I suspect she’s better from the wing than my data reflects (lol). I’m not sure if that makes it or flank a better home for her. I will say at tank I have almost no chance of reflecting her and I continue to think she’s underrated in this role.

Isarnia Special Skill

I think the devastating component is the defense down. It’s deep and lasts forever. Regular slash attacks become crippling and specials all but guarantee kills.

It is a priority cleanse / flip (like with Kiril, to defense up). The problem is that the attacker:

  1. May not have a cleanse or buff ready in time, or
  2. Be forced to use a cleanse / buff / heal at an inopportune time. Say I have Kiril ready to fire but can see that the defense has Seshat charged. What do I do? Or Drake Fong is about to fire and I have Ariel ready. Fire now or wait? Are any of my heroes likely to die to Drake’s special? You want to put the attacker in these sorts of situations and give them the opportunity to make mistakes.

Emblem Path

I’d go all attack. You’re going to use her on titans, so max that tile damage. I doubt a few def/hp nodes extra will improve her defensive performance enough to justify the diminution in sheer tile damage.

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I find your record interesting and a bit impressive, as I raid not too differently than you do – I don’t reroll, but will dig through my tower for revenges I like better than the raid presented to me. I’m nearly certain my (unmeasured) success rate is less than yours.

You haven’t stated what makes you look for a “better” raid, and I’m curious what that is. In my case, it is almost 100% based on how much ham/iron I’ll be getting if I win, although if I’ve got 1 flag left and only need 1 win to fill my chest I’ll sometimes avoid a tougher fight so I don’t have to wait an hour to finish the chest.

I suspect if I tracked my win rate and selected raids for more likely wins, mine would probably improve, possibly to your 95%+ odds.

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Great question! I think there are three factors that probably make up that vast majority of the situations where I do the pseudo-reroll you and I employ.

Chest Almost Full

Usually when a chest spawns I have 6 raid flags. Whether I get 30 heroes into it or fewer, I then set a timer for when my raid flags will replenish enough to fill it out, assuming I win all the later fights.

Consequently, I am a bit more conservative with those 2+ later flags, as I want to fill it and get the cooldown time started. I might turn down a regular matchup if it’s not awesome / if I have a lot of tower revenges. Also, if I scroll through my tower and find a team I think I’ll win ~80% against but then also have a cup dropper or just a team I expect to beat on the reg, of course I’ll opt for the latter (assuming no open revenge will drop off the list - I DO still want to beat them lol).

So I’m probably fairly aggressive in the first 6 flags, since, if I lose one I just set my timer for an extra hour to come back, but in the second half I am really prioritizing just winning.

Specific Hero

For a while this was Guinevere (until I got Seshat online). Now it’s definitely Telluria, and it’s really more like Telluria at 15+ flanked by Vela and JF/GM. She’s still stout flanked by, say, Hel and Leonidas or at +10 or less, but those are big changes (slower heroes, less synergized).

Realistically, sometimes I just get tired of fighting her (again, really more like the front trio). There are a LOT of defenses like that right now and at times I just want a break from seeing those stupid annoying bowling bowls on her side while my heroes are dizzy (which is what the mana impairment ailment makes me think).

Loot

This is a lesser consideration for me, and often I’m not even aware of it. But I have found myself looking at it a bit more lately. I think maybe the best way is to analogize it to a tiebreaker. If I walk through the above steps the decision is probably already made.

But if it’s close - say a tough Telluria team in my first half, but they’re offering 40k+ ham and 20k+ iron, we’re good to go. I figure that’s an okay return, since, even if I only expect to win 50% (and it’s gotta be above that, even as tough as she is, right? I hope…), that’s still a better ham/iron EV than a team with ~10k of each that I expect to almost always beat.

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Just to be clear, your primary goal is winning more raids so you mostly look for raids you expect to win.

I mention it because some people have a primary goal of resources (me, for one), or a primary goal of cups instead.

Obviously you don’t get cups or resources for losing so picking one you will lose is a bad idea all around :rofl:

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haha, yep that’s probably a better summary than what I wrote. I really want to fill three raid chests a day, as I ultimately think that leads to more of the resources I really want (four star AM’s and elemental chests).

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I think filling 3 raid chests a day is an excellent strategy if you are raiding in diamond or at least opening your chests there. Dunno if I’d endorse it for younger players who aren’t there yet or not.

FYI if you are a fanatic and willing to use significant raid refills, I believe you can do 4-5 raid chests per day, but ~3 is a lot more reasonable.

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Three a day!? Then you’re accelerating the chests well ahead of what you can be guaranteed a return on, even at diamond.

And I’m in awe of your win percentage. I’ve been sitting pretty comfortably in low diamond for a month or so now, despite 2 4* on my defense (Rigard +20 and Proteus +19), but my attack win percentage is nowhere close to that (gut feeling only).

I clearly need to learn better on adjusting for the defense team.

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That level of chest acceleration isn’t to have a net gain on gems. I figure it actually has a net cost of somewhat under the VIP daily 30 gems, but probably over half of them.

The return is in getting more ascension mats, mostly by getting more elemental chests, but a few more from the regular raid chests as well. Plus tokens and other loot in chests.

As a way to get more ascension mats, it is about as cheap in gems as it gets in this game, except for the free ones in rare quests, event rewards, etc.

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Makes sense. I’m incredibly jealous of my daughter’s account— holy chest gave 2 5* materials this morning. She has one 5*, which wasn’t the right color.

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This whole thing is spot on. I also tried to calculate the gem cost for a while but stopped when I became confident it was within a range I found palatable. I agree it is less than the daily 30 VIP gems.

It is difficult to quantify the value of iron, ham, items, tokens, etc. As with the gem cost, I tried for a while to calculate the net gain, but stopped - it’s very complex. Besides, the bottom line for me is that the game has relatively few mechanisms for converting ANY game resource into 4* AM’s and emblems (which are what I want). So virtually any way of doing that is going to be something I explore.

Two final thoughts:

  1. As Barry already notes, this strategy should almost certainly not be employed by newer players - the trade-offs are probably not good for them (i.e., they should likely use gems to summon). I think I was more than a year in before I started accelerating my chests.
  2. The strategy I employ (to accelerate raid chests with maximum aggressiveness) also became more viable with the introduction of raid tournaments. I could fill more chests and doing so became both faster AND easier. For example, if I can fill my final chest of the day by around 6pm, I can start my first chest the next morning with a cost of 0 gems. Besides the gems saved, saving one of my three accelerations for LATER in the day also is a real asset. But finishing by 6pm is really only feasible with extra raid flags, meaning flasks or raid tournament flags are needed.
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