🍻 [January 2021] Portal Stats, Summon Results & Offers – Tavern of Legends

Guvnor · January 21, 2021, 2:15am

This thread is for information and discussion on the January 2021 Tavern of Legends Summon Portal, and sharing Summon Results.

For discussion of teams & strategy see: 🍻 [Jan 21, 2021] Tavern of Legends Event – FAQ & Team Discussion

Tavern of Legends Portal Appearance Rates

The Tavern of Legends has a second updated to the portal odds, specifically moving 0.6% from the Season 1 5 hero over to the Non-Featured past HotM.*

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
Legendary Classic Hero: 0.6%

Total= 98.1%

Past HotM

FEATURED returning HotM: 1%
Non-Featured Returning HotM: 0.9%

Total = 1.9%

Bonus Draw Chances

Current HotM: 1.3%
Secret Legendary Hero Myztero: 0.1%

Click for OLD ToL Portal Summon Rates

Pre-October 2020

Season 1 (Classic) Heroes

Rare Classic Hero: 71.0%
Epic Classic Hero: 26.5%
Legendary Classic Hero 1.2%

TOTAL: 98.7%

Past HOTM

Legendary Past Hero of the Month: 1.3%

SECRET BONUS DRAW

Legendary Secret Hero: 0.1%

Link to Legendary Secret Hero Information: 🍻 Myztero – 5* Purple/Dark -- "Secret" Tavern of Legends Hero

Featured Heroes

The first two Featured HotM are the two newly added to the Portal.
The Other Two have no clear trend yet.

Below are the featured heroes with links to their discussion threads.

13 months past	12 months past	Featured HotM 3	Featured HotM 4
Grimble	Vela	Aeron	Frida

Current HotM: Bertila

Secret Mystery Featured Hero: Myztero

Included Past HOTM

Past Heroes of the Month are included in Legends Summon when 12 months have passed since their original release date.

Newest Addition to ToL Portal
Grimble
Vela

Past Heroes of the Month (HOTM) available:

Hel
Athena
Ares
Mushashi
Alberich
Thoth-Amun
Perseus
Natalya
Zeline
Delilah
Aeron
Alasie
Gravemaker
Gregorian
Drake Fong
Khiona
Aegir
Zimkitha
Evelyn
Onatel
Kunchen
Frida
Anzogh
Margaret
Ranvir
Seshat
Miki
Grazul
Kingston
Neith
Grimble
Vela

Avoiding Overspending & Heartache
Or: How many summons are needed to get an old HotM?
Below Maths is current as of October 2020 portal. Subject to change as additional heroes are added to the Portal.

It’s important to remember that the Tavern of Legends Portal has the lowest odds for a specific hero of ANY portal… No amount of summoning will guarantee a desired Hero.

This table shows the cumulative probability of different Summon events, based on a total number of Summons (1x, 10x, 30x, 100x, 500x, 1500x, 2500x, 5000x & 10000x). Based on 10,000 gems costing 99.99 USD, I have also added an approximate $ cost too.

Please note that NO occurrence is ever actually 100%; the 100% entries in the table below indicate cumulative probabilities sufficiently close to 100% that they are expressed as such for simplicity. All other numbers are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

Some useful insights:

(Each 30x Summons costs 8,000 gems or ~$79.99 USD).

	1x ~~US$3.00~~	10x ~~US$26.00~~	30x ~~US$74.99~~	100x ~~US$250.97~~	500x ~~US$1,251.87~~	1500x ~~US$3,749.63~~	2500x ~~US$6,025.40~~	5000x ~~US$12,500.75~~	10000x ~~US$24,998.50~~
Any Past HotM	0.019	0.1746	0.4376	0.8531	0.9999	1	1	1	1
Any Featured Past HotM	0.01	0.0956	0.2603	0.6340	0.9934	0.9999	1	1	1
Any Non-Featured Past HotM	0.009	0.0864	0.2376	0.5951	0.9891	0.9999	1	1	1
SPECIFIC Featured Past HotM	0.0025	0.0247	0.0723	0.2214	0.7139	0.9766	0.9981	1.0000	1
SPECIFIC Non-Featured Past HotM	0.00036	0.0036	0.0107	0.0354	0.1648	0.4173	0.5935	0.8348	0.9727

You have a 0.25% chance of summoning a specific FEATURED Past HotM from the Tavern of Legends Portal. For a NON-FEATURED Past HotM it is just 0.036% chance.

On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 2.83% chance of summoning a particular Past HotM (2.47% for a specific featured and 0.36% for a specific Non-Featured).

On Average, in a 10-pull you have a 17.46% chance of summoning ANY past HotM.

But that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning.

Putting that in Perspective

78 out of every 100 people will spend ~~~$250.97 USD~~ and WON’T get a specific Past Featured HotM by the 100th pull
If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 778,557 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero
4 out of every 100 people who will spend ~~~$24,998.5 USD~~ and WON’T get the specific Non-Featured Hero by the 10,000th pull
If 1 Million players each summoned 10,000 times, 27,306 of those players wouldn’t get the specific Featured Hero

Odds Explained via Picture

A good graphic showing the overall odds & what you can expect from the various summons portals made by @Dorkus:

Summon Costs

Single: 300 Gems or 100 Legends Coins
10x: 2600 Gems
30x: 7500 Gems

Offers

prices in USD before tax

Related Threads

🍻 [Jan 21, 2021] Tavern of Legends Event – FAQ & Team Discussion

Historical Tavern Summons Threads:

Meisarebel · January 21, 2021, 7:07am

So with Frida and Vela in this Tavern, does that mean they won’t be in Atlantis? Or… how does this work?

Guvnor · January 21, 2021, 7:13am

Atlantis is separate.

Atlantis features the hero from 11&23 months ago.

ToL features the hero from 12&13 months ago (and two seemingly randomly selected ones)

Suicide_Bunny · January 21, 2021, 7:23am

Sigh, was hoping for Drake featured… They seemed to have featured the ‘star’ heroes in the past iterations after the rework. Grimble and Aeron are not really stars

Personally, the only one of those that I’m missing is Aeron and he’s not really tempting. I’m not even spending the Tavern Coins this month.

Gorann · January 21, 2021, 9:46am

I’ve got every one of the featured heroes, and three copies of Vela. Aeron I got in the first ToL event. So I’m a-savin’ those coins for a more suitable month.

KeeSnow · January 21, 2021, 9:56am

Easy pass for me. No interest in Aeron and Grimble. Frida will also be featured in Atlantis next month which I plan to pull anyway.

Hope they will be featuring Athena, Zeline and Drake next time.

ThunderFX · January 21, 2021, 10:09am

Do we know who will be featured next month. In general does the order known in ToL, ty

Chodaboy · January 21, 2021, 10:13am

First coin pull got me Boril.

Hope Glenda enjoys the snack.

Suicide_Bunny · January 21, 2021, 10:22am

Next month nobody is featured. No ToL

In March only two ‘new’ HotMs are predictable it seems… So JF and Telluria. The ‘returning’ HotMs are seemingly random.

TigerDevil · January 21, 2021, 10:41am

Given how bad the 2020 HotMs were, the ToL portal is going to be pretty lousy for a while. Frida is solid, but featuring heroes like Aeron just isn’t going to cut it. This would be an easy pass even if I hadn’t already stopped spending because of costume-gate.

Chodaboy · January 21, 2021, 10:57am

Second (and final) coin pull: Tibertus.

The legends just keep on coming.

Rafa_Correia03 · January 21, 2021, 11:00am

Colen and Keilani…so happy right now d8de3bbf03ad4a7e3744ff650517f662

Blord · January 21, 2021, 11:48am

I fought hard in the Tavern and got Gunnar and his sister-in-arms.

Annjul · January 21, 2021, 11:48am

Caedmon and oberon for me so far. Think I’m gonna manage one more pull aftering completing all stages though I’m not expecting much

deus_ex · January 21, 2021, 12:02pm

My luck is weird:

After many many pulls, I finally got a legend!

“But what legend?” You ask?
I got the Legendary Leonidas. Isn’t that cool! Finally something useful. And he is so rare!
“But he’s just an ordinary 5* hero!”
Nonono, see, 5 Star, Tavern of legends. Must be really legendary, not just ordinary legendary!
“But look, 0,6% chance of getting a legendary classic hero. It’s right there”
Okay, yeah, I see. But surely, pulling a more legendary legend is even lower percentage, I mean this is E&P after all.
“No, actually, pulling an HOTM has a higher percentage. 1% + 0,9%. About triple of what you got.”
So you say, even by being lucky in pulling at the rarest of percentage of them all, I got screwed?
“yes, so to say”
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU…

Silencio · January 21, 2021, 12:54pm

Unexpectedly, I got this one now:

I know that the odds are very low in this portal, so when he came up, I thought: Who the f*** is this one?

Unfortunately, he will have to wait his turn sooooooo much.

Suicide_Bunny · January 21, 2021, 1:00pm

And I recall so well when Anchor had him rated A+ for long. Back in my baby months (I think around November 2018) him and Zeline were featured in the Atlantis portal, I wanted to summon Ares so badly and instead got this stupid Zeline. I was disappointed but ‘hey, at least they say she’s also some good so…’. I was always looking at Ares with such envy.

Now I still take Zeline in my green stack and many other places (titans, farming, she’s even in my defense team flanking Mitsuko). Meanwhile… who exactly is Ares?

Congrats anyways though, his crit is still helpful on titans I guess…

Silencio · January 21, 2021, 1:03pm

I wouldn’t care changing as well.
Zeline is more useful that this one. There aren’t so many 5* AoE dispellers.

Slobix · January 21, 2021, 3:25pm

First two pulls:

Wait, there’s another!

See you in March.

EDIT: I had a good feeling that something might pop up… 1 offer bought later:

I’m actually super excited about him.

Ruskin505 · January 21, 2021, 3:54pm

I’m going to pass on summoning this month. I already have Frida and Vela (although having a second of either is tempting). While I could use a new purple five star to level, neither Grimble or Aeron excite me much.
Two months from now we’ll see Telly, JF, and two other past HOTM. That’s more exiting to me.