Titan Loot & You - A Data Farming Project! ***PRELIMINARY RESULTS***

So first off I’d like to preface:

  1. I am building on previous work done by @gregschen and @Revelate
  2. project has come about as a result of both personal curiosity & based on stuff that I have seen floating around.
  3. If you want to contribute your own titan loot data, please use the google form! (https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8)
  4. If you want to know more, hit me up on Line App. My ID is Guvnor81

Project Aim
The aim of the project is pin down the odds of various materials and other items that a player can receive from killing titans. Included in this loot project are the odds for each titan Loot Tier, you receiving:

  • Crafting Materials
  • Ascension Materials
  • Titan Parts
  • Battle Items
  • Gems
  • Trainers, Flasks & Summons Tokens
  • Rare Titan stuff (Bonus Roll, Emblems & Atlantis Coins)

Project Method

  1. Collect HEAPS of data
  2. Crunch the numbers based on loot tier
  3. Create summary tables
  4. Inform the community.

Tools
With the aid of a couple community members, I’ve built a Google Form to assist in entering the data (Link at the bottom). The key to the data collection is getting comprehensive data… the Good, Bad and down-right damned ugly!
The form takes about 60 seconds to fill in per titan. To save time, you can screenshot several titans loot and input the data at once!

Preliminary Results

So far a total of just under 1,000 data points have been collected via the form. This data ranges over titan loot tiers from I to XVIII
I have also incorporated some previous data collection by @gregschen (BIG THANKS for ~700 additional data points!)

Spread

Tier Counts Count of Entries Spread
I 74 10.42%
II 0 0.00%
III 3 0.42%
IV 20 2.82%
V 47 6.62%
VI 99 13.94%
VII 90 12.68%
VIII 100 14.08%
IX 158 22.25%
X 216 30.42%
XI 282 39.72%
XII 252 35.49%
XIII 157 22.11%
XIV 85 11.97%
XV 42 5.92%
XVI 7 0.99%
XVII 2 0.28%
XVIII 1 0.14%
XVIX 0 0.00%
XX 0 0.00%
TOTAL 1635

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Ascension Materials

Loot Tier Count 1* Material 2* Material 3* Material (Farmable) 3* Material (Non-Farmable) 4* Material 3* Material (any) Non-Farmable Ascension Material (ANY)
I 74 100.00% 0.00%
II 0 0.00%
III 3 83.33% 16.67% 0.00%
IV 20 57.50% 42.50% 0.00%
V 47 29.79% 63.83% 4.26% 2.13% 0.00% 6.38% 2.13%
VI 99 18.18% 67.68% 7.58% 6.57% 0.00% 14.14% 6.57%
VII 90 22.78% 61.11% 6.67% 8.33% 0.00% 15.00% 8.33%
VIII 100 19.00% 58.00% 8.00% 12.50% 2.50% 20.50% 15.00%
IX 158 82.07% 4.43% 12.03% 1.48% 16.46% 13.50%
X 216 81.02% 7.25% 9.88% 1.85% 17.13% 11.73%
XI 282 71.28% 8.51% 17.85% 2.36% 26.36% 20.21%
XII 252 70.63% 9.92% 16.80% 2.65% 26.72% 19.44%
XIII 157 60.51% 11.46% 24.63% 3.40% 36.09% 28.03%
XIV 85 62.06% 16.18% 19.71% 2.06% 35.88% 21.76%
XV 42 56.55% 18.45% 20.83% 4.17% 39.29% 25.00%
XVI 7 64.29% 10.71% 17.86% 7.14% 28.57% 25.00%
XVII 2 75.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 25.00% 25.00%
XVIII 1 75.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 25.00%
XVIX 0 0.00% 0.00%
XX 0 0.00% 0.00%

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Crafting Materials

Loot Tier Count 1* Material 2* Material 3* Material 4* Material
I 74 100.00%
II 0
III 3 33.33% 66.67%
IV 20 55.00% 45.00%
V 47 25.53% 72.34% 3.19%
VI 99 24.24% 65.15% 10.61%
VII 90 24.44% 61.67% 12.78% 1.11%
VIII 100 14.00% 66.00% 18.00% 1.50%
IX 158 2.11% 78.48% 16.67% 1.48%
X 216 1.39% 77.62% 19.60% 2.78%
XI 282 0.80% 74.20% 22.70% 2.48%
XII 252 0.20% 71.83% 26.19% 1.19%
XIII 157 0.13% 70.45% 26.50% 1.66%
XIV 85 65.29% 31.37% 2.16%
XV 42 65.48% 30.16% 3.17%
XVI 7 69.05% 28.57% 4.76%
XVII 2 85.71% 14.29% 0.00%
XVIII 1 85.71% 0.00% 14.29%
XVIX 0
XX 0

Future Works

  • More data!!! Obviously the data is still lacking, particularly at the lower & upper loot tiers. Anyone who wants to contribute their Loot Data regularly I am MORE than happy to have it!! You can make use of the Google Form in the links below.
  • Miscellaneous Items!! those such as Trainer Heroes, Summons Tokens, Flasks, Gems & Loot Tickets
  • Rare Data!!! Still don’t have a huge amount of Rare Titan data so as yet don’t have reliable information regarding Bonus Item, Emblems and Atlantis coins
  • I am still working on the Battle Items as these seem to be inconsistent in the number of rolls.
  • Titan Parts… I’m still working on this part of the data crunching… there are a number of variations which could affect the parts & no. of parts like your loot tier, titan grade and harpoon tier.

Stay tuned for these updates and again, I very much appreciate any data that people can consistently provide!

Links
Google Form for Loot Data Entry: https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8
NOTE: you do not need to check "N/A" for every item you DIDN'T get... just check the quantity of the ones you DID get :smiley:

Previous works:

28 Likes

Sorry, wasn’t 100% sure what category to chuck this under… Could also go under community content but :man_shrugging:

1 Like

Awesome work, @Guvnor!

Did your data collection include the number (total) off ascension and crafting mats and distribution by loot tier?

Aka Tier VIII has 2 ascension mat rolls and Tier IX has 3 according to prior information … but from my experience, sometimes you get fewer mats than the maximum number.

3 Likes

Yeah It did. From the data the Crafting and Ascension materials are pretty fixed in their number of rolls. The battle items is where it goes a little off-script, hence why it isn’t included in the prelim numbers…

This is the No. of rolls per tier which the data collection has supported very nicely.

Loot Tier Ascension Mat Rolls Crafting Mat Rolls
I 1 1
II 2 2
III 2 2
IV 2 2
V 2 2
VI 2 2
VII 2 2
VIII 2 2
IX 3 3
X 3 3
XI 3 4
XII 3 4
XIII 3 5
XIV 4 6
XV 4 6
XVI 4 6
XVII 4 7
XVIII 4 7
XVIX 4
XX 4
5 Likes

Some purchasable (by gems that I recall) game offers have something like 90% 2 rolls / 10% 3 rolls… were you able to calculate that sort of thing in this data?

1 Like

From the shop you mean? Not as part of this project. I’m sure that someone could gather said data but personally I haven’t really spent many gems on shop stuff

No, I meant have you found similar odds of getting 2 vs 3 mats when 3 mats are possible on some tiers, etc.

I was using the shop deals as an example of how that might play out since those odds are published by SG, and titan loot tier odds you have to reverse engineer / statistically test in ways like I did for farming loot.

4 Likes

Ahh right! No the rolls are static like in the raid tournaments.

The only one that seems to have a “no item” option is the battle items and misc. Stuff at the end (like trainers and flasks).

So for crafting material rolls and ascension material rolls, the lowest item you could possibly get is a 1 star there doesn’t seem to be a “no item” option… Ie if you have 3 rolls you will get 3 items

6 Likes

This will get looked at when I analyse the data around battle items, flasks, gems, trainers etc…

1 Like

Second this, sometime I got 2 mats for tier 9 and 10

Ok. I’ll have to start tracking my data and sharing it with you then. Because like @robin102 I’m quite sure I sometimes get fewer ascension mats than the specified number in your chart. (Mostly 14-16, sometimes 3 instead of 4, and I haven’t paid close attention to see if I get less than that)

Hey @Guvnor :slight_smile: I’ve been tracking my titan loot with loot tier since August 2018 in a spreadsheet. However, I only wrote down the titans I got something unfarmable from (3* mats, 4* mats, ETT, EHT & titan flasks).

Would that help, too?

Streaking 12* titans from April 2019 - September 2019. Streaking 14* titans from September 2019 till date. That info might help as well for identifying the titans I got “nothing” from.

Every time this happens, double checking my screenshots shows I got multiples of one ascension items.

7 Likes

@Aquaginera, send me a message in Line and we can chat :slight_smile:

My ID is Guvnor81

1 Like

@BarryWuzHere and @robin102 what gryphon knight has said is the most likely cause

I can send you the raw data but so far, for crafting and ascention materials the data has supported the premise that 3 rolls gets you 3 items… Not necessarily 3 unique items but 3 in total :slight_smile:

4 Likes

#player-guides is perfect, and thanks for all of your work on this and publishing your initial results!

3 Likes

This is a great project. I will start entering in my results. Currently killing 11-12*.

1 Like

I am curious, how many entries per loot tier do you need to have a statistically meaningful sample?

Also, have you thought about expanding this project to other places where we don’t know the drop rates? (Raid chest, titan chest, elemental chest, etc)

Personally I’d like between 200 & 500 entries per tier but will take in excess of 100 as a consolation prize.

I have considered expanding it but figured I would focus on one thing at a time… Maybe in the future :stuck_out_tongue:

1 Like

I wonder if the thread could be cross posted to general discussion to give it more visibility? How many entries are you getting per day?
I am encouraging my alliance to start entering data.

1 Like

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