If you want to know more, hit me up on Line App. My ID is Guvnor81
Project Aim
The aim of the project is pin down the odds of various materials and other items that a player can receive from killing titans. Included in this loot project are the odds for each titan Loot Tier, you receiving:
Tools
With the aid of a couple community members, I’ve built a Google Form to assist in entering the data (Link at the bottom). The key to the data collection is getting comprehensive data… the Good, Bad and down-right damned ugly! The form takes about 60 seconds to fill in per titan. To save time, you can screenshot several titans loot and input the data at once!
Preliminary Results
So far a total of just under 1,000 data points have been collected via the form. This data ranges over titan loot tiers from I to XVIII
I have also incorporated some previous data collection by @gregschen (BIG THANKS for ~700 additional data points!)
Spread
Tier Counts
Count of Entries
Spread
I
74
10.42%
II
0
0.00%
III
3
0.42%
IV
20
2.82%
V
47
6.62%
VI
99
13.94%
VII
90
12.68%
VIII
100
14.08%
IX
158
22.25%
X
216
30.42%
XI
282
39.72%
XII
252
35.49%
XIII
157
22.11%
XIV
85
11.97%
XV
42
5.92%
XVI
7
0.99%
XVII
2
0.28%
XVIII
1
0.14%
XVIX
0
0.00%
XX
0
0.00%
TOTAL
1635
.
.
Ascension Materials
Loot Tier
Count
1* Material
—
—
—
I
74
100.00%
II
0
III
3
83.33%
IV
20
57.50%
V
47
29.79%
VI
99
18.18%
VII
90
22.78%
VIII
100
19.00%
IX
158
X
216
XI
282
XII
252
XIII
157
XIV
85
XV
42
XVI
7
XVII
2
XVIII
1
XVIX
0
XX
0
.
. Crafting Materials
Loot Tier
Count
1* Material
2* Material
3* Material
4* Material
I
74
100.00%
II
0
III
3
33.33%
66.67%
IV
20
55.00%
45.00%
V
47
25.53%
72.34%
3.19%
VI
99
24.24%
65.15%
10.61%
VII
90
24.44%
61.67%
12.78%
1.11%
VIII
100
14.00%
66.00%
18.00%
1.50%
IX
158
2.11%
78.48%
16.67%
1.48%
X
216
1.39%
77.62%
19.60%
2.78%
XI
282
0.80%
74.20%
22.70%
2.48%
XII
252
0.20%
71.83%
26.19%
1.19%
XIII
157
0.13%
70.45%
26.50%
1.66%
XIV
85
65.29%
31.37%
2.16%
XV
42
65.48%
30.16%
3.17%
XVI
7
69.05%
28.57%
4.76%
XVII
2
85.71%
14.29%
0.00%
XVIII
1
85.71%
0.00%
14.29%
XVIX
0
XX
0
Future Works
More data!!! Obviously the data is still lacking, particularly at the lower & upper loot tiers. Anyone who wants to contribute their Loot Data regularly I am MORE than happy to have it!! You can make use of the Google Form in the links below.
Miscellaneous Items!! those such as Trainer Heroes, Summons Tokens, Flasks, Gems & Loot Tickets
Rare Data!!! Still don’t have a huge amount of Rare Titan data so as yet don’t have reliable information regarding Bonus Item, Emblems and Atlantis coins
I am still working on the Battle Items as these seem to be inconsistent in the number of rolls.
Titan Parts… I’m still working on this part of the data crunching… there are a number of variations which could affect the parts & no. of parts like your loot tier, titan grade and harpoon tier.
Stay tuned for these updates and again, I very much appreciate any data that people can consistently provide!
Links
Google Form for Loot Data Entry: https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8 NOTE: you do not need to check "N/A" for every item you DIDN'T get... just check the quantity of the ones you DID get
Did your data collection include the number (total) off ascension and crafting mats and distribution by loot tier?
Aka Tier VIII has 2 ascension mat rolls and Tier IX has 3 according to prior information … but from my experience, sometimes you get fewer mats than the maximum number.
Yeah It did. From the data the Crafting and Ascension materials are pretty fixed in their number of rolls. The battle items is where it goes a little off-script, hence why it isn’t included in the prelim numbers…
This is the No. of rolls per tier which the data collection has supported very nicely.
Some purchasable (by gems that I recall) game offers have something like 90% 2 rolls / 10% 3 rolls… were you able to calculate that sort of thing in this data?
From the shop you mean? Not as part of this project. I’m sure that someone could gather said data but personally I haven’t really spent many gems on shop stuff
No, I meant have you found similar odds of getting 2 vs 3 mats when 3 mats are possible on some tiers, etc.
I was using the shop deals as an example of how that might play out since those odds are published by SG, and titan loot tier odds you have to reverse engineer / statistically test in ways like I did for farming loot.
Ahh right! No the rolls are static like in the raid tournaments.
The only one that seems to have a “no item” option is the battle items and misc. Stuff at the end (like trainers and flasks).
So for crafting material rolls and ascension material rolls, the lowest item you could possibly get is a 1 star there doesn’t seem to be a “no item” option… Ie if you have 3 rolls you will get 3 items
Ok. I’ll have to start tracking my data and sharing it with you then. Because like @robin102 I’m quite sure I sometimes get fewer ascension mats than the specified number in your chart. (Mostly 14-16, sometimes 3 instead of 4, and I haven’t paid close attention to see if I get less than that)
Hey @Guvnor I’ve been tracking my titan loot with loot tier since August 2018 in a spreadsheet. However, I only wrote down the titans I got something unfarmable from (3* mats, 4* mats, ETT, EHT & titan flasks).
Would that help, too?
Streaking 12* titans from April 2019 - September 2019. Streaking 14* titans from September 2019 till date. That info might help as well for identifying the titans I got “nothing” from.
I can send you the raw data but so far, for crafting and ascention materials the data has supported the premise that 3 rolls gets you 3 items… Not necessarily 3 unique items but 3 in total
I am curious, how many entries per loot tier do you need to have a statistically meaningful sample?
Also, have you thought about expanding this project to other places where we don’t know the drop rates? (Raid chest, titan chest, elemental chest, etc)
I wonder if the thread could be cross posted to general discussion to give it more visibility? How many entries are you getting per day?
I am encouraging my alliance to start entering data.
I’ve been tracking my titan loot with loot tier since August 2018 in a spreadsheet. However, I only wrote down the titans I got something unfarmable from (3* mats, 4* mats, ETT, EHT & titan flasks).
