Titan Loot Project - A Data Farming Project! Answering "What can/could I get from the Titan?"

:white_check_mark: RESULTS ARE IN!!!

Thread is to summarise & display the results of the Titan Loot Data Farming Project I have been running for the last 6 or so months

Preface Notes

So first off I’d like to preface:

  1. I am building on previous work done by @gregschen and @Revelate
  2. project has come about as a result of both personal curiosity & based on stuff that I have seen floating around.
  3. If you want to continue contributing data you may so so using the google form; no guarantees that it will be used/ the project results expanded but… :man_shrugging:
    (https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8 )
  4. If you want to know more, hit me up on Line App. My ID is Guvnor81
Preliminary ResultsThread

Titan Loot & You - A Data Farming Project! ***PRELIMINARY RESULTS***

:dart: Project Aim

As before, the aim of the project is to pin down the aparant likelihood of getting various loot items from killing titans. These likelihoods are to be broken down into the Titan Loot Tier that you are awarded based on your performance.

Specific Loot to be Assessed
  • Crafting Materials
  • Ascension Materials
  • Titan Parts (from Harpoons)
  • Gems
  • Trainers, Flasks & Summons Tokens
  • Rare Titan Stuff (Bonus Roll, Atlantis/Valhalla Coins & Emblems)

I have not included Battle Items in this summary as there is a “none” roll which makes the “total possible” rolls hard to pin down… I will keep assessing this data & update later on.

:clipboard: Project Method

  1. Collect HEAPS of data
  2. Crunch the numbers based on loot tier
  3. Create summary tables
  4. Inform the community.
Data collection Tool

With the aid of a couple community members, I’ve built a Google Form to assist in entering the data (Link at the bottom). The key to the data collection is getting comprehensive data… the Good, Bad and down-right damned ugly!
The form takes about 60 seconds to fill in per titan. To save time, you can screenshot several titans loot and input the data at once!

Form Link:
https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8



:white_check_mark::white_check_mark::white_check_mark::white_check_mark: THE RESULTS!!!

I shall try to keep this as brief as possible & break it down into each category.

Each set of results is displayed on a PER ROLL basis. Each loot tier has a set number of rolls for each type of loot.

:question::question: How do I know my Loot Tier? & How Many “rolls” (attempts) per tier?

Calculating the Loot Tier is actually quite straightforward & easy to do.
image

Click to view Loot Rolls per Tier

image

Addition explanation graphic by ScndStar


Credit @ScndStar

:1234: Loot Tier / Data Count

In total there was almost 4,200 data entries. as you can see, some of the data sets were quite small & hence limited in the application/ validity of the data. Specifically, I wouldn’t take toooo much stock in tiers XVII & XVIII; Tier II & III are also a concern.

Click to see the Tier Count & Distribution

image

:scissors: Crafting Materials

This data set is really nice as it shows a clear trend in the likelihood of getting each star item.
… 1* crafting items starts off at 100% but then dies away.
… 2* items go up and then decay off somewhat at the higher tiers
… 3* & 4* crafting items both gradually rise (almost linearly)

Click to see the Likelihood of Crafting Materials per roll for each Loot Tier

image

:medal_military: Ascension Materials

Similarly to the Crafting Materials, there are some nice trends in the Ascension Materials likelhioods.
… 1* Ascension Materials start out as guaranteed before falling away
… 2* Ascension Materials rise from Tier II & peak at Tier IX (9). Then they fall away.
… 3* Farmable & Unfarmable materials both rise from Tier V (5) and keep rising.
… 4* Ascension Materials started appearing at Tier VIII (8) & got incrementally better.

Click to see the Likelhiood of Ascension Materials per roll for each Loot Tier

Note - 3* rare materials = the unfarmable ones (gloves, hidden blades, compasses etc…)
image

:t_rex: Titan Parts!

I think personally I found this to be the most interesting data I gathered… There is no change in the Titan Parts likelihood from one tier to another… Quite interesting compared to all the other data which has substantial variation from one tier to another!

Click to see the Likelihood of Titan Parts per roll for each Loot Tier

image
A note on the Titan Parts per Loot Tier. This is for TIER 1 harpoons. Tier 2 adds +2 parts to the number shown & Tier 3 adds +3 more (5 more in total)

:gem: GEMS!!!

Another pretty clear graph showing a gradual increase and decay in the gems you receive for each loot tier. Things of note:
… By Tier V (5) you are guaranteed to get at least 1 gem.
… By tier VIII (8) you should get at least 3 gems
… By Tier X (10) you will be getting 5+ gems more often than not.

Click to see the likelihood of getting GEMS at each Loot Tier

image
NOTE: Gems have only a single roll

:nazar_amulet: Summons Tokens

It appears that Summons Tokens have a rather low drop rate across the board. The numbers don’t really show a clear trend, even in the highest density Loot Tiers (IX to XIV or 9-14)… So make what you will of it :stuck_out_tongue:

Click to see Likelihood of Summons Tokens at each Loot Tier

image

:tropical_drink: Flasks!!

Similarly to the Summons Tokens, the drop rate seems really small & without any real trend… at least not one thats easily apparent… So again, make what you will of this data :slight_smile:

Click to see Likelihood of Energy Refills (Flasks) at each Loot Tier

image

:crossed_swords: Trainer Heroes

YAY DATA :stuck_out_tongue: there actually IS something to see here, however it’s not much of a “trend”…
… 1 & 2* Trainers start appearing at Loot Tier IV (4) & drop rates appear relatively stable for all tiers afterwards.
… There were no recorded 3* trainers below Loot Tier X (10), but that may be a result of the smaller sample sizes there.

Click to see Likelihood of Trainer Heroes at each Loot Tier

image

:fast_forward: Loot Tickets

Nice little trend here showing that Loot Tickets start appearing from Loot Tier IV (4) onwards & increase at a relatively linear rate from one tier to the next.

Click to see Likelihood of getting Loot Tickets at each Loot Tier

image

:partying_face: Rare Titans

Even with all the data collected there wasn’t actually a HUGE number of rare titans included… Made the analysis quite difficult to do… So I’m just going to paste the summary & y’all can make of it what you will :stuck_out_tongue:

In general, the higher the Loot Tier for Rare Titans correlated to getting better loot (Emblems, Atlantis/Valhalla Coins & Bonus Item)

Click to view Likelihood of BONUS ROLL (4* Ascension Item) for each loot tier on Rare Titans

image

Click to view Likelihood of Emblems for each Loot Tier on Rare Titans

image

Click to view Likelihood of Atlantis/Valhalla coins for each Loot Tier on Rare Titans

image



Future Works

At current there are not any plans to continue this project further. I may personally add data to it BUT I think it has given some pretty good results & insights
The only thing that may get added yet is some data on Battle Items… But not for a little while yet

:link: Links

Previous Works:

:spiral_notepad: Data

A copy of the data & results in excel spreadsheet form can be found here:

69 Likes

Thanks for all your hard work! What results did you find most interesting?

3 Likes

Is there really a curse of the A+? I A+ our titans pretty much all the time, but I am getting way lower AM mat drop percentages than what’s shown in the chart for tier 9 and 10 (which is what I usually get). I get 1, MAYBE 2 three star unfarmables per month.

@Mr.Spock

3 Likes

Busted…I skimmed lol

2 Likes

I’m in a small alliance (12 active members) knocking over 6s and the odd 7. I find the drop rate of 3* ascension mats to be pretty good. I don’t find any difference between A and A+ tier. Larger alliances probably have diminishing returns.

1 Like

Good work. Looks in line with what I see on my drop (I only track ascension mats, the rest is worthless).

A+ vs A vs B really does not matter (unless you are a fan of conspiracy theories), it only affects the loot level. Someone’s A+ on 11 titan is my C on 14 titan…

Would be safe to assume that generally the high level tiers give 3% chance per roll for 4 star and around 25% per roll for 3 non farmable star ascension mats. Maybe it’s 2.7%, maybe 3.3%, does not matter, on average 1 per 30 rolls, so one per 7 titans should give something. That is around 4 epic mats per month from titans when you chain them. Based on that you may estimate whether you are on the lucky side of life or not really. March and Feb I got total of 3 each, January brought me 6. So looks that I meet the average.

2 Likes

100% nope. There was no trend or any statistical significance to the GRADE you get beyond being used to determine the LOOT TIER :slight_smile:

Welcome to grab the data and check for yourself tho :stuck_out_tongue:

1 Like

hmmmmm… I need to start keeping track because I’m 93.234% certain i am getting way lower numbers than that.

2 Likes

More than welcome to :slight_smile:

Or you can make use of the 4000 data points I collected :stuck_out_tongue:

5 Likes

But I won’t be able to whine and moan about my horrible luck if I did that XD

5 Likes

got really lucky on my alt:


cant really estimate a % from this (would probably be too inflated, or we can pull my number, 24, with yours, 175, so ~0.5%), but 4* do start appearing at tier 7!

3 Likes

In my opinion, that is just biased sampling. 1 person gets A+, and then member count minus 5 get B grade. when you get nothing with A+ grade, but someone yells “I got this and that with B”, that is just one person out of ~20.

1 Like

Tier 7 isn’t beyond possibility from my numbers, just never saw it in the 175 entries I got for Tier 7 :slight_smile:

Ideally each loot tier would have 500+ samples which would give a really good idea of the numbers BUT that takes a lot of time to gather & assess.

1 Like

Great job! Well done! Thanks for your effort.

If you want to contribute your own titan loot data, please use the google form! (https://forms.gle/N6ibX1esyKuk3NDr8 )

Does it still make sense to enter fresh data? I did before but stopped some weeks ago on what I thought was your call to do so.

1 Like

Thanks for the pickup! I copy & pasted sections from the first preliminary results thread lol… And that was one.

Ive updated that section:

@Guvnor Thanks for compiling this info. Great stuff. One question for you -

If we assumed that the rare titan’s ascension mat bonus roll had an equal chance of appearing regardless of the loot tier, do you have the overall percentage rate that it appeared at for all the data that got submitted?

3 Likes

I can get it tomorrow.

2 Likes

Any thoughts on doing confidence intervals for the different loot tiers? Data should be there, so shouldn’t be too hard. I am afraid it will overlap a lot though, but could give some insights and show clearly that you would need more rolls for high scores on higher level titans.

2 Likes

Great job! Thank you for posting this!

1 Like

Amazing work guv!

2020

2 Likes

Cookie Settings