Update: Adjusted numbers in Titan Kills tables to share with you general loot tier slots, along with specific percentages for 3* & 4* ascension mats per slot in particular.
Over this past month or two, with the help of my alliance (Fateweavers!) I’ve been collecting data on three separate, particularly lucrative, loot sources:
- Titan Kills
- 5x Titan Kill Chest
- Elemental Chests
Just the other day we hit the milestone of having 100 recorded titan kills and it just feels like a good time to call things to a close on data collection. Now that the results are in, I’d like to take some time to share it with y’all so that we as a community can have expectations that are more in line with in-game averages, rather than hopeful aspirations that might never be met.
Hit the carot below to expand whichever section that you would like to see the breakdown and analysis of. A general summary follows beneath it all!
Note: Not all data is included here, only the summary of the more interesting elements (i.e. no ingredient drops will be mentioned). You may see the original data here.
Titan Kills
Special Note: This data is spread among 7* , 8* , and 9* titans. That said, as @Garanwyn so kindly noted below, the data can be extrapolated to all titan kills as long as we separate the results by Loot Slot, keeping in mind the basics of Titan Loot Tiers.
Loot Tiers:
| Reward | Tier 8 | Tier 9 | Tier 10 | Tier 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascension Mats | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Ingredients | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Battle Items | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Flasks, Summon Tokens, and Atlantis Coins each have a chance to be awarded, but are generally fairly rare to receive from titans (6% or less chance each).
Total Records: 100 titan kills
| Reward | Chance per slot |
|---|---|
| 4* AM | 4.5% per slot |
| 3* AM | 21.9% per slot |
| Trainer | 34% (1.39*) |
| Gems | 4 |
| Class Emblems | 3 (from rares only) |
Personally, I was surprised to see just how high the chances are of receiving a 4* ascension mat when considering the entire titan’s drops. Getting one from every 10 kills (4.5% x 2 or 3 slots) is actually surprisingly decent. On the other hand, even though the data shows a 22% chance for a 3* ascension mat per slot, much of the time it is simply a Battle Manual or Chainmail Shirt rather than the more useful Compass or Fine Gloves.
I was also pleasantly surprised by the 34% chance at a trainer, who averages 1.39*. Gotta love those 2* trainers!
The most disappointing result is that we wait so long to get a rare, and oftentimes can’t kill them, yet when we do they drop all of 3 class emblems… what a disappointment! …that said, we only killed one rare after emblems were released, and the most recent patch declared increased drops… so that number is likely somewhat unreliable. Nonetheless, I doubt it’s TOO far off.
Big takeaway: Daily titan kills is absolutely your best chance at good ascension mats!
5x Titan Kill Chest
Total Records: 38 Chests
| Reward | Chance |
|---|---|
| 4* AM | 11% |
| 3* AM | 24% |
| Battle Items | 84% |
| Epic Hero | 5% |
| Epic Troop | 24% |
| Flask | 11% |
| Trainer | 24% (1.33*) |
| Gems | 4 |
| Class Emblems | 4 |
While the precise percentages for each specific category are, in fact, higher than those of regular, daily titan kills… it’s only marginally so. See the average gem drops, for instance: 4 per, instead of 3 per.
Despite this marginal increase in chances, the fact that there are fewer loot slots in the chest than there are for titan kill loot means that these chests are likely of equal or less value when compared to a regular titan kill, sadly. Most chests only include:
- 1 ascension material
- 1 battle item
- 1 token
- 4 gems
- 3 atlantis coins
The only thing that the 5x chest has going for it is that it has a slightly increased chance at good tokens: 5% chance for an epic hero token and a 24% chance for an epic troop.
Definitely not a chest to actually look forward to.
Elemental Chest
This chest has it all. That said, it comes around once every 7-10 days for those of us who skip as many chests as possible… or more like once a month for the rest of us. Because of just how uncommon it is, it’s unlikely to make a huge dent in our ascension needs… that said, by compare to any other reward method, this chest is lucrative. I completely see why people are willing to spend gems to receive more of these rewards!
Total Records: 25
| Reward | Chance |
|---|---|
| 4* AM | 16% |
| 3* AM | 180% |
| Battle Items | 100% |
| Epic Hero | 20% |
| Epic Troop | 54% |
| Flask | 100% |
| Trainer | 100% (1.24*) |
| Gems | 32 |
| Class Emblems | 21 |
You’re basically guaranteed two high level ascension mats (probably 3*), three tokens, a flask, a trainer, 30+ gems, and 20+ emblems. This chest should make everyone smile each time they open that bad boy.
…even so… with just a 16% chance at receiving a 4* ascension item, it’s no wonder that Damascus Blades and Tomes of Tactics are so darn rare. Considering that this is the most lucrative, highest percentage chance to receive them outside of quests… phew. One in eight makes them a rare sight indeed.
All told, I’ve concluded that the 5x Titan Kill Chest, while percentage-wise better than a regular titan kill, in practice is usually much, much worse. I’ve also realized that we get a lot more from our daily titan kills than most people seem to think…
I like the system as it currently stands. Basically, one in ten titans you get something really good from, whereas from most titans you simply get various random and useful things… then once every few weeks, you get gifts of flasks, trainers, and tokens (oh my!), along with a potential lottery win of a 4* mat.
Also, when people declare “I got squat”, etc, it’s likely not because they didn’t receive anything of value, but rather that they are in search of something very specific and received something that they already have an abundance of.
As I said before, I’m sure that this data doesn’t necessarily change your priorities in the game, but hopefully it helps set your expectations as to just how common it is to get that all-elusive blade/tonic/compass that you’ve been hoping for for ages. 
P.S. @Garanwyn stamp of approval? Pretty please! Look at all the data collection I did! LOL