Setting Expectations: Titan Drops & Elemental Chests (updated)

Update: Adjusted numbers in Titan Kills tables to share with you general loot tier slots, along with specific percentages for 3* & 4* ascension mats per slot in particular.

Over this past month or two, with the help of my alliance (Fateweavers!) I’ve been collecting data on three separate, particularly lucrative, loot sources:

  1. Titan Kills
  2. 5x Titan Kill Chest
  3. Elemental Chests

Just the other day we hit the milestone of having 100 recorded titan kills and it just feels like a good time to call things to a close on data collection. Now that the results are in, I’d like to take some time to share it with y’all so that we as a community can have expectations that are more in line with in-game averages, rather than hopeful aspirations that might never be met.

Hit the carot below to expand whichever section that you would like to see the breakdown and analysis of. A general summary follows beneath it all!

Note: Not all data is included here, only the summary of the more interesting elements (i.e. no ingredient drops will be mentioned). You may see the original data here.

Titan Kills

Special Note: This data is spread among 7* , 8* , and 9* titans. That said, as @Garanwyn so kindly noted below, the data can be extrapolated to all titan kills as long as we separate the results by Loot Slot, keeping in mind the basics of Titan Loot Tiers.

Loot Tiers:

Reward Tier 8 Tier 9 Tier 10 Tier 11
Ascension Mats 2 3 3 3
Ingredients 3 3 3 4
Battle Items 2 2 3 3

Flasks, Summon Tokens, and Atlantis Coins each have a chance to be awarded, but are generally fairly rare to receive from titans (6% or less chance each).

Total Records: 100 titan kills

Reward Chance per slot
4* AM 4.5% per slot
3* AM 21.9% per slot
Trainer 34% (1.39*)
Gems 4
Class Emblems 3 (from rares only)

Personally, I was surprised to see just how high the chances are of receiving a 4* ascension mat when considering the entire titan’s drops. Getting one from every 10 kills (4.5% x 2 or 3 slots) is actually surprisingly decent. On the other hand, even though the data shows a 22% chance for a 3* ascension mat per slot, much of the time it is simply a Battle Manual or Chainmail Shirt rather than the more useful Compass or Fine Gloves.

I was also pleasantly surprised by the 34% chance at a trainer, who averages 1.39*. Gotta love those 2* trainers!

The most disappointing result is that we wait so long to get a rare, and oftentimes can’t kill them, yet when we do they drop all of 3 class emblems… what a disappointment! …that said, we only killed one rare after emblems were released, and the most recent patch declared increased drops… so that number is likely somewhat unreliable. Nonetheless, I doubt it’s TOO far off.

Big takeaway: Daily titan kills is absolutely your best chance at good ascension mats!

5x Titan Kill Chest

Total Records: 38 Chests

Reward Chance
4* AM 11%
3* AM 24%
Battle Items 84%
Epic Hero 5%
Epic Troop 24%
Flask 11%
Trainer 24% (1.33*)
Gems 4
Class Emblems 4

While the precise percentages for each specific category are, in fact, higher than those of regular, daily titan kills… it’s only marginally so. See the average gem drops, for instance: 4 per, instead of 3 per.

Despite this marginal increase in chances, the fact that there are fewer loot slots in the chest than there are for titan kill loot means that these chests are likely of equal or less value when compared to a regular titan kill, sadly. Most chests only include:

  • 1 ascension material
  • 1 battle item
  • 1 token
  • 4 gems
  • 3 atlantis coins

The only thing that the 5x chest has going for it is that it has a slightly increased chance at good tokens: 5% chance for an epic hero token and a 24% chance for an epic troop.

Definitely not a chest to actually look forward to.

Elemental Chest

This chest has it all. That said, it comes around once every 7-10 days for those of us who skip as many chests as possible… or more like once a month for the rest of us. Because of just how uncommon it is, it’s unlikely to make a huge dent in our ascension needs… that said, by compare to any other reward method, this chest is lucrative. I completely see why people are willing to spend gems to receive more of these rewards!

Total Records: 25

Reward Chance
4* AM 16%
3* AM 180%
Battle Items 100%
Epic Hero 20%
Epic Troop 54%
Flask 100%
Trainer 100% (1.24*)
Gems 32
Class Emblems 21

You’re basically guaranteed two high level ascension mats (probably 3*), three tokens, a flask, a trainer, 30+ gems, and 20+ emblems. This chest should make everyone smile each time they open that bad boy.

…even so… with just a 16% chance at receiving a 4* ascension item, it’s no wonder that Damascus Blades and Tomes of Tactics are so darn rare. Considering that this is the most lucrative, highest percentage chance to receive them outside of quests… phew. One in eight makes them a rare sight indeed.

All told, I’ve concluded that the 5x Titan Kill Chest, while percentage-wise better than a regular titan kill, in practice is usually much, much worse. I’ve also realized that we get a lot more from our daily titan kills than most people seem to think…

I like the system as it currently stands. Basically, one in ten titans you get something really good from, whereas from most titans you simply get various random and useful things… then once every few weeks, you get gifts of flasks, trainers, and tokens (oh my!), along with a potential lottery win of a 4* mat.

Also, when people declare “I got squat”, etc, it’s likely not because they didn’t receive anything of value, but rather that they are in search of something very specific and received something that they already have an abundance of.

As I said before, I’m sure that this data doesn’t necessarily change your priorities in the game, but hopefully it helps set your expectations as to just how common it is to get that all-elusive blade/tonic/compass that you’ve been hoping for for ages. :slight_smile:

P.S. @Garanwyn stamp of approval? Pretty please! Look at all the data collection I did! LOL


It doesn’t mention anywhere what strength titan you are slaying?

Nice dedication! Thanks for the hard work

You guys did an awesome job collecting and collating data! That is the hardest part by far of answering any question like this, and what you’ve produced will be of real use to the community. So you definitely get my stamp of approval. Outstanding job!

That said, I’ve been looking over the analysis, and I think I see some issues that we should talk through. What’s your preferred way to do that? We can go Line if that’s easiest, or I can explain what I think should be adjusted in a post here.


It’s in the titan section itself. :slight_smile:

@Garanwyn Lively discussion is always welcome! Right here on the forums is just fine …that said… collecting so much data was kinda exhausting. It’s a LOT of data entry for a sustained period of time… I really don’t have any intention of going back and splitting things out further, etc, etc.

The only real issues that I could imagine have to do with the 3* ascension mats in that I didn’t split out farmable from non-farmables. Whatcha seein’?

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Nothing that’s not easy to fix :slight_smile:

The first issue is that it looks like you’ve been averaging percentages, which doesn’t work right. You actually need to sum up all the counts and divide by the total number of opportunities to get the correct percentage.

The second issue is that the reported percentages on titans should be given per loot type slot, rather than per titan. That way, the result is fully portable to higher or lower level titans.

I quickly ran the numbers on the data you have (thank you so much for making the underlying data available!). Here’s what I get on the AM:

There were 265 total reported AM in the data set. Within that, the breakdown is:

12 4*
58 3*
176 2*
19 1*

That means if we divide through by slots, we get:

4* AM: 4.5% per slot
3* AM: 21.9% per slot
2* AM: 66.4% per slot
1* AM: 7.2% per slot

This is actually very much in line with the 4* AM data that @kamikaze_assassin reported for 12* titans from CP.

You can likewise total up the number of ingredients, battle items, etc., to get the number of loot slots of each kind you all saw, then divide by those to get the number of 4* ingredients per slot, 3* ingredients per slot, etc.

ETA: if you’d be willing to share the sheet with me, I’d be happy to make a copy of it and tack in the changes I’m suggesting in the copy.

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Okay! I’m gonna address/quote these one-by-one so I can keep track of 'em and respond to each portion. Let’s see here…

But that’s actually how I did it! Well… mostly… If ya look at the Totals page, rather than the Intro page, that’s where the data collation took place. I broke it down by titan color, giving each one its own percentage, then added the percentages together and divided them… wait…

I see what you mean! the 3* Ascension Mat data looks a little wonky when it declares a 55% drop chance, but only one of the 5 colors is below 57%… and it’s a color that’s tied for the least number of titans total. …I’ll make that adjustment and rework the percentages declared in post #1. That low percentage of green 3* drops really brings down the overall total completely unnecessarily…

This makes complete sense. Mostly I was doing this so that I could set my own expectations and give a general average view of titan drops to the community, I wasn’t really thinking about loot slots… just that most of us see 2 ascension mats per titan, and on occasion 3. You’re right in that such an adjustment would give a much more accurate picture. I’ll quote that per-slot breakdown up above.

If you wouldn’t mind, I’d love to toss ya access and have ya give it the once-over. The only thing that I know about loot slots is that tiers 2 - 8 get two AM, while 9+ gets three, and as of Loot Tier 10, ingredients go from 3 up to 4. I’ll see if I can’t get you that link via Line.


Awesome! I’m Line ID: garanwyn. Hit me up :slight_smile:

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Hi guys, I am working on a project to quantify the value of elemental chests. You may be interested in helping with this. Any data after September 2019 is welcome!! Elemental Chest loot project

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