INTRODUCTION: Hello Guys, I have been interested in quantifying the average of obtained items in elemental chests (and chests in general, just look at this thread: https://forum.smallgiantgames.com/t/analysis-value-of-chests-and-items/133610/3 ).
That has been done with data that only belongs to my chests, but now the main idea is to expand for all the users and get a bigger dataset to play with. So, if you wanna help in this project, I wanna receive data from ELEMENTAL CHESTS, STARTING FROM SEPTEMBER 2019 (we know that in some date earlier than that the % of items changed).
You only have to fill this short survey (should take 2-3 min per elemental chest) with all the info you have (you may not track some info, so the first questions are voluntary).
The link is: Elemental chest survey - Chests after September 2019..
PLEASE ENTER ALL YOUR CHESTS, NOT ONLY THE “BAD” OR “GOOD” ONES!
Thanks for your help!!
Edit 1: By the way, I forgot to say that please only enter YOUR PERSONAL data, that way we will not have duplicate entries! (that is why I cannot enter data from images or posts here, that could induce bias in the study!!)
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ELEMENTAL CHESTS IN PERIOD SEPTEMBER - BEFORE CHANGE TO VALHALLA COINS
Hello guys, first presenting results from period SEPTEMBER- Before S3, they are the following:
Now presenting results from period: after S3 - Before change from atlantis to Valhalla:
As you can see, results are extremely similar in all categories and all 95% interval confidences have common areas which means we cannot state that the loot distribution is different in these two periods. The difference between results must be mostly noise. The known reduction in loot ticket does not seem to affect these chests yet because not a lot of chests were obtained after it was implemented.
Considering this, we can assume % drops remain the same, so we get the following results for the period SEPTEMBER - BEFORE CHANGE TO VALHALLA COINS:
As we can see, there seems to be around 12% of probability of getting a 4* AM in each roll (so we should expect 1 four star As. Mat. every 4 elemental chests). I would say the proportion of tokens is around 75% Silver, 12.5% troops and 12.5% hero. Flasks seem to be 1/3 chances each, and trainers 75-20-5 % .
Also, here are the distributions for gems, emblems, keys and atlantis coins:
Now that we are receiving Valhalla coins and the loot nerf was completely implemented, I am starting a new dataset to check if some other % drop was changed without telling us and to check what happens with lot tickets.
THANKS TO EVERYBODY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED !!! PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO CONTINUE DOING IT