PROJECT --- Elemental chests loot analysis

[ierazo]

INTRODUCTION: Hello Guys, I have been interested in quantifying the average of obtained items in elemental chests (and chests in general, just look at this thread: https://forum.smallgiantgames.com/t/analysis-value-of-chests-and-items/133610/3 ).

That has been done with data that only belongs to my chests, but now the main idea is to expand for all the users and get a bigger dataset to play with. So, if you wanna help in this project, I wanna receive data from ELEMENTAL CHESTS, STARTING FROM SEPTEMBER 2019 (we know that in some date earlier than that the % of items changed).

You only have to fill this short survey (should take 2-3 min per elemental chest) with all the info you have (you may not track some info, so the first questions are voluntary).
The link is: Elemental chest survey - Chests after September 2019..

PLEASE ENTER ALL YOUR CHESTS, NOT ONLY THE “BAD” OR “GOOD” ONES!
Thanks for your help!!

Edit 1: By the way, I forgot to say that please only enter YOUR PERSONAL data, that way we will not have duplicate entries! (that is why I cannot enter data from images or posts here, that could induce bias in the study!!)

PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ELEMENTAL CHESTS IN PERIOD SEPTEMBER - BEFORE CHANGE TO VALHALLA COINS
Hello guys, first presenting results from period SEPTEMBER- Before S3, they are the following:

Now presenting results from period: after S3 - Before change from atlantis to Valhalla:

As you can see, results are extremely similar in all categories and all 95% interval confidences have common areas which means we cannot state that the loot distribution is different in these two periods. The difference between results must be mostly noise. The known reduction in loot ticket does not seem to affect these chests yet because not a lot of chests were obtained after it was implemented.
Considering this, we can assume % drops remain the same, so we get the following results for the period SEPTEMBER - BEFORE CHANGE TO VALHALLA COINS:

As we can see, there seems to be around 12% of probability of getting a 4* AM in each roll (so we should expect 1 four star As. Mat. every 4 elemental chests). I would say the proportion of tokens is around 75% Silver, 12.5% troops and 12.5% hero. Flasks seem to be 1/3 chances each, and trainers 75-20-5 % .
Also, here are the distributions for gems, emblems, keys and atlantis coins:

Now that we are receiving Valhalla coins and the loot nerf was completely implemented, I am starting a new dataset to check if some other % drop was changed without telling us and to check what happens with lot tickets.

THANKS TO EVERYBODY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED !!! PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO CONTINUE DOING IT

[Rfm]

Here’s a source of information…
Good job and gl with your project!

Elemental Chest Frequency - days tracking and results > estimated between 4 to 16 days

11 days since my last. I had a Nature one earlier: (will update post in a second with screenshots using phone) [Screenshot_20191226-033048_Empires] [Screenshot_20191226-033042_Empires] [Screenshot_20191226-033034_Empires] Dragon bone is something I seem to get quite easily anyway so it’s annoying that was one of ym 4* I got two 3* with my tokens: oberon + renfeld

[ierazo]

Thanks, I will post there too. The thing is I cannot enter data from other people as it could induce bias (if they enter their data as well, we would have duplicate entries!)

[Hurriphoonado]

Hi, I keep track of my elemental chests, so have records of all chests dating back to September 2019. However, my tracking leaves out the crafting materials, battle items and loot tickets, as I don’t really care about those drops. It keeps track of ascension mats, emblems, tokens, emblems, flasks and trainers received. Would you still want me to plug in my data, and if so, how do you want me to handle the missing fields.

[ierazo]

Hi @Hurriphoonado, the best option for you is to put 0 as value for all of those fields. Please put as date 1/1/2000. that way I will know it was you and I will separate that data (the one belonging to you) and I will fix it to provide accurate results afterwards.
Thanks for your collaboration!
If you can keep track of crafting materials, battle items and loot tickets it would be great, otherwise keep doing with that date!

[Hurriphoonado]

Sounds good, I will plug in my data over the next week. I assume you will be publishing the results at some point? How many data points do you need before you post preliminary results?

[ierazo]

Yes I will. I think I can start doing preliminary results once I have at least 100 data points (I have 12 from myself)

[zephyr1]

@ierazo

STARTING FROM SEPTEMBER 2019 (we know that in some date earlier than that the % of items changed)

How do we know that?

[Rohn]

I have seen a change since I have been playing… Also people say that all of one color or more (not sure) chest always had EHT in them. Can anyone PLEASE verify this for me???

[zephyr1]

@Rohn

people say that all of one color or more (not sure) chest always had EHT in them

It’s easy to disprove that from my data alone.

I’ve had EHT in every color chest, and have had every color chest without EHT.

[JonahTheBard]

In two years I’ve never seen or heard anything about any chest having a guarantee of any particular item.

I’d also add that you can search back over two years and people have always posted about how loot was better in the good old days.

[Rohn]

Ok thank you 2 for clearing that up for me

[ierazo]

I decided September as an arbitrary date, because we know that nothing has changed since then. Let’s hope we can get enough data

[zephyr1]

@ierazo

I decided September as an arbitrary date, because we know that nothing has changed since then.

I guess I’ll just reiterate my earlier question…

@zephyr1

How do we know that?

[ierazo]

Well you are right… just my assumption then hahah.
We have 31 answers so far, so hopefully more people will collaborate and help to get at least 100 by the end of January!

[ierazo]

Hi again guys! Coming back to the US with some connections so I had plenty of time…
Using all the data received so far I decided to make a summary!
I am attaching it.

I am really looking forward to get more data, so everybody that would like to cooperate is welcome!
By the way, even though it is better to give all information, recording some portion of it works fine too (that is why some categories have different sample sizes).

If you want to put some data that Is not complete (as an example only Ascension mats) put the date as 1/1/2000 and 0 or -1 to all other entries (so I know you did not record them). But as I said it would be better to provide all data. Do not forget to submit elemental chests only after September and that are yours! (so we do not have bias by duplicate chests being posted).
Thanks!

[Hurriphoonado]

I plugged in my data from September onwards. For the emblems, it might be helpful if you list out the different numbers of emblems and the %chance of receiving them. I.e. 50 emblems - 5%, 40 emblems - 10%, 30 emblems - 40%.

Thanks.

[yelnats_24]

This is my AM data from March 2019:

AM since March
Star	Count	%
☆☆☆	61	89.71%
~Farmable	26	38.24%
~Unfarmable	35	51.47%
☆☆☆☆	7	10.29%
Total	68	100.00%

There is not much difference with your result, so I guess they don’t change AM drop rate.

[ierazo]

Seems like a good guess. I think they changed the % drop of hero tokens but who knows. Now I get way more gray tokens, but we do not know for sure. As we receive now the data with time, it will be possible to evaluate those things in the future

[ierazo]

Just checked what you wanted. I did for gems too. With a sample size of 41 we have: