Hello everyone!
UPDATE FEB 21, 2018: I just downloaded the new 1.10 patch, so I figured it would be appropriate to update this post. The new patch is supposed to increase rewards for completing/opening raid chests at a higher rank. I made sure to note in my data if each chest was a raid or monster chest, so hopefully in the future I will be able to see how much better rewards are at higher ranks (currently platinum, might be able to open some diamond level ones after upgrading some heroes). I’m up to 608 chests open now {updated numbers}. Just like last time my luck on epic hero tokens has been better. Not enough data to determine if this is just due to better luck or an actual change though. The least number of chests between rares has been 15 and the most was 53. END UPDATE
UPDATE FEB 3, 2018: Now up to 524 chests total. Updated values in [brackets]. I’ve stopped separating normal and rare chest odds as it was too tedious. So values from now on are total drops in all chests, regardless of rare or normal. One oddity is in the last ~100 chests I’ve gotten 5 epic hero tokens compared to only 9 in the first ~425. Probably just RNG getting lucky on rare chests (4 from them), but I’d like to think the devs heard my plea 
. If they do read this please give me a Zeline this month 
. END UPDATE
I have been collecting data on all of my wanted chests (monster, raid, rare) since October and thought I would share my results so far. I have been playing and enjoying the game since August and I’m excited for what the new year brings!
Method: Monster chests were usually filled on level 8-7 for efficiency. For raid chests I used the “cup dropping” method to make filling the raid chest easier. I also skipped timers as frequently as the game allows. Using these methods I am able to fill 4-6 chests per day. Whenever I opened a chest, I screenshot the rewards, which I then logged in a spreadsheet. I only log gems, 3* and 4* ascension items, flasks, tokens, and trainer heroes.
(edit) This data does not include titan chests or drops from them. I started out logging them but noticed the drops seemed better in them and didn’t think I would get enough data, given the 5+day fill time, to draw any conclusions. Rare chests can spawn from titan chests, which may change these odds slightly. However I opened 25-35x more monster/raid chests than titan chests so it wouldn’t be a huge change(/edit) Now, on to the good stuff!
Total number of chests (normal + rare): 436 [524] {608}
Number of RARE chests: 14 (~3.2% chance) [17, ~3.2% chance] {20, ~3.3% chance}
3star ascension materials from NORMAL chests: 12 (2.8% chance in each NORMAL chest)
3star ascension materials from RARE chests: 14
TOTAL 3* ASCENSION MATERIALS: 26 (~6.0%) [34] [6.5%] {39} {6.4%}
4star ascension materials from NORMAL chests: 6 (1.4% chance in each NORMAL chest)
4star ascension materials from RARE chests: 4
TOTAL 4* ASCENSION MATERIALS: 10(~2.3%) [12] [2.3%] {13} {2.1%}
Epic Troop tokens from NORMAL chests: 6 (1.4% chance in each NORMAL chest)
Epic Troop tokens from RARE chests: 8
TOTAL EPIC TROOP TOKENS: 14 (3.2%) [16] [3.1%] {20} {3.3%}
Epic Hero tokens from NORMAL chests: 2 (0.5% chance in each NORMAL chest)
Epic Hero tokens from RARE chests: 7
TOTAL EPIC HERO TOKENS: 9 (~2.1%) [14] [2.7%] {20} {3.3%}
World, raid, alliance flasks from ALL chests: 12, 7, 4 (2.8%, 1.6%, 0.9%) [15, 9, 4] [2.9%, 1.7%, .8%] {20, 11, 5} {3.3%, 1.8%, 0.8%}
Observations: It looks like there is a roughly 1 in 30 chance for a chest to be the coveted rare chest. In the world of statistics, 14 is probably too small to draw definitive conclusions, but here is what I noticed about them. These rare chests always gave one flask, usually world energy but sometimes raid or alliance. They also always gave 3 tokens in some combination of regular, epic troop, and epic hero. The epic hero odds seem better in the rare chest than normal chests. They also always gave at least one 3* or 4* ascension material.
The smallest number of normal chests between rare chests was 18, which was 4 days apart. So if some sort of “cooldown timer” between rare chests exists, it is smaller than that. [Had new low of 15 normals between rares, have also read on other posts of back to back rare chests, so I’m not sure if any cooldown timer exsists.]
To determine if paying gems to skip the chest timers was worth it, I set values for each item and found an “average chest value” (including the rare chests).
PERSONAL*** values used:
4star ascension material: 200 gems
3star ascension material: 150
Epic hero token: 150
Epic troop token: 100 gems
Alliance, world, raid flasks: 150, 100, 50
2trainer, 1 trainer, regular token: 5, 2, 1
Using the above values my average chest value was 29.3 [30.7] {31.6} gems, so worth skipping the timer FOR ME.
***Please note everyone values things differently, mine might be on the high end for some and low end for others.
Quick note to developers (if they read this): Please do not reduce these odds. I think they are fair as is. If I had to make a change, I would suggest increased odds of getting something good (3*, 4* ascension materials, epic tokens) from normal chests and compensate by reducing odds in rares if needed. I can see how most players wouldn’t be too enthusiastic about working to fill chests when most of the time all you get is a few gems. I especially think epic hero tokens need to be increased. The summon gate odds for 4* and 5* heroes is already low, making epic hero tokens so rare makes getting mostly 3* from them sting even more.
One final note: These results were collected solely by me on one account. I have heard of games where the odds can change based on spending habits. I AM IN NO WAY IMPLYING THAT HAPPENS IN THIS GAME. But, I feel it is important to note that it is possible for odds to change between accounts (unless Small Giant can confirm they do not).
I hope everyone finds this information useful! I’ll try to edit this post as needed to add more info or clarify things.
mrock42
ha ! I started to do something similar myself, albeit not as methodical as you. This is great. In regards to the raids. I’m actually having to drop some of cups/trophies since I wasn’t aware of the “cup dropping” before and I’ve just now changed my set up to only 3 heroes. I’m “desperately” trying to get the ascending loot. Using gems to skip the time buffs is totally worth it to me as well as I have many heroes just waiting to be ascended. I can’t wait to see them perform to their full potential…I feel like they’re just going to waste at the moment…
