Analysis: Value of chests and items

Hello guys, just like most of you I really like this game, and as I really like statistics, a few weeks ago I started a small experiment to try to get a sense of how “good” the rewards are in general for different chests. Someone probably already did something similar but I have been reading a lot this forum in the past months, without reading something like this.

So far, I have tracked results for 58 monster chests, 39 raid chests in platinum and 9 raid chests in diamond. Because of small sample size in the diamond chest I will not reveal results as they are meaningless.
I just tracking valuable stuff, like gems, emblems, tokens, trainers, tickets, atlantis coins, flasks (not ham/iron, crafting or attacking items)…

So far per monster chests:

  • 2.51 gems
  • 1.18 emblems
  • 3.45% 3* non farmable A.M (0% 4*)
  • 0.43 grey tokens (0 for the others)
  • 8.62% 1* trainer // 3.45% 2* trainer
  • 0.12 atlantis coins

So far per raid chest (platinum):

  • 3.48 gems
  • 0.82 emblems
  • 7.69% 3* non farmable A.M // 2.56% 4*
  • 0.9487 grey tokens // 2.56% troop // 2.56% hero
  • 28.21% 1* trainer // 2.56% 2* trainer
  • 0.28 atlantis coins

I have cracked the amount of chests open in between elemental chests, for a total of 17 elemental chests, resulting in 34.47 chests per elemental.
However, there is a discrepancy between the amount of elemental chests that pop up in the Hero slot comparing to the monster slot. I have needed to open in average 63.8 monster chests to get an elemental there, while just 21.72 hero chests to get one in that slot. It may seem like there is a different probability depending on the slot, and that would explain while people who speed up hero chests receive way more elemental chests.

I started tracking consistently what I receive from elemental chests just in the last four, so again small sample size.

I just wanted to get a sense of the “average value gained” by opening a chest, for which I try to compute the “Gem weighted” value. For that I just assign a value in gems for each category of items. So far I weight them this way:

  • Non farmeable 3* A.M. = 50 gems
  • 4* A.M. = 400 gems
  • Grey tokens = 0.5 gems
  • Troop tokens = 150 gems
  • Hero tokens = 200 gems
  • Loot tickets = 0.5 gems
  • Emblems = 5 gems
  • World flask = 15 gems
  • Raid flask = 5 gems
  • Titan flask = 10 gems
  • Trainer 1* = 1 gems
  • Trainer 2* = 2 gems
  • Trainer 3* = 5 gems
  • Atlantis coin = 3 gems

Basically, I punish very hard the things that do not add real value over what can be obtained for free. As an example I think gray tokens do not have value at all because they just give feeders and a really small chance at a good feeding troop. Otherwise just food. Trainers the same thing, they help to reduce costs at leveling heroes and help to do it quicker but it can be done anyway with time and the correct TC and ham (I still have over 4000 clothes to use in TC19 as an example). I devalue a little bit the troop and hero tokens because they do not have the same flexibility as having gems, and besides that hero tokens are only really valuable for seasonal events as otherwise they are just the same as TC20 (just the added bonus of HOTM chance, but still small).
The “controversial” part probably is the value of non-farmeable 3* A.M. I think they are just not as valuable because if you 9* titans consistently you should get them without much problems, and I have seen that older players have lots of them in stock. I think if you are still starting they have lots of value, but afterwards they start losing it. For ME 400 gems seem okay for 4* A.M. even though I realize I am biased as I only have three 5* heroes so I do not need them as much as other players. I should probably increase it right?
I think emblems at 5 gems is fine, but maybe should be more for experienced players, as It is currently the only way to customize your heroes and make them stronger. Once you have full team of 5* heroes, adding more does not have as much value as embleming your heroes, so I fact I think they are very very valuable.

With all of this in mind, the average value received from monster chests is 11.2 gems, and for platinum chests 32.4 gems (I got astonished when seeing it). By the way, I have done the same thing for mystic visions and their expected value is huge, a total of 18 gems!! (I have gotten 2 non farmeable 3* A.M. and two 4* AM in 96 visions, so that influences the result, but still 1.8 gems and 1 emblem per mystic vision).

I would like feedback, particularly regarding the “value” of the received items. Hope this is helpful for some other players!

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Wow, It is a very interesting analysis. I don’t pay much attention to that. But after reading all of this I think it’s worth spending 1-3 gems to skip the chest timer so I can do it before a some hours log off.

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Thank you for reading! I was really expecting to help some people and to receive feedback. This topic has like 60 views but only your comment. Is there any experienced member that can provide feedback? Particularly regarding the value in gems of Ascension mats, and emblems! I would like to hear more comments!

Well guys, I have gotten more data over this time and I made a summary, which shows how I value items (I am cheap to play) and the overall earnings for each chest (and the sample size as well).
That way you can see how many items to expect (again, I do not value battle items or crafting items).

Hope you enjoy, any inquiries questions or feedback are appreciated!

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This is very interesting analysis, thanks for putting it together. I’m wondering about some of the gem values you’ve assigned, especially to flasks. Since a world energy refill costs 100 gems, I would think a world flask would be higher than 15, and I imagine IF they ever sold titan flasks (or refills) they’d cost way more than 10…

Also if I’m reading your chart correctly, you’ve received no 4* unfarmable mats in 11 elemental chests? That seems extraordinarily unlucky given the statistical norms, so given the valuation of those at 400 gems, if you receive a few in your next portion of data, it should dramatically increase the overall value of those elemental chests.

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Hi Frank, thanks for the feedback!

  • Regarding flasks, I assigned them the amount I value them as a C2P. They are kind of useful but can only give you “farmeable loot” hence they are not necessary. If I had my C2P gems I would not buy them, instead I would use them in summons waiting for luck. As an example I valued Hero tokens only as 200 gems instead or 300 or 260 (value for a 10 summon) because they can usually give you only TC20 heros, which are not as good. Again, Loot tickets may be very useful if you are a big spender using lots of flags, but I have an excess of 500 only with VIP, so I do not value them highly.
  • Iniatially I though valuing emblems less, but now I even think they may be a little more useful, as they are the best way to keep improving your hero!! Anyway, 5 gems is fair for a C2P.
  • Yea, 0 four star AM in 11 elemental chests, just bad luck I guess. Anyway, I had 7 straight elemental chests with 3 grey tokens, so it does not surprise me I have bad luck!! Anyway, I valued those mats as only 400 gems, because even if you have a lot of them, after some time you will lack hero to use as food. But I understand if some people think they have more value. As of now I value more than anything summons, as I only have 9 hero that are 5* so for me getting more is a priority (In fact I have 0 red of 5 stars!)
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Have you considered starting a group data project?

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Thank you for sharing this! Per chest value is not something I have tracked / tried to calculate, so I really enjoyed see your results.

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Elemental Chests

@ierazo, here’s my data from my most recent 44 elemental chests.

3* NFAM: 109.09%
4* AM: 27.27%
Gems: 34.09
Grey Token: 213.64%
Troop Token: 38.64%
Hero Token: 47.73%
Loot Tickets: 4.67
Emblems: 17.5
World Flask: 38.64%
Raid Flask: 36.36%
Titan Flask: 25%
1* Trainer: 79.55%
2* Trainer: 15.91%
3* Trainer: 4.55%
Atlantis Coins: 5.93

Using your valuation system, I come in at 471.28 per chest. That’s quite a bit higher than the 292.72 you posted. A few things I noticed:

  • My AM’s are better
  • My tokens are more valuable
  • I got more loot tickets
  • Lastly, I think that 3* trainer heroes were added partway through this period, so I think my drops are not quite in line with what I’d expect to get right now

I think most / all of these were while I was in the Diamond - we don’t know if that or cup count affects your drops, but that is a possible explanation for why I received better drops than you. You may also just need a larger sample (and, really, I do too).

Other Thoughts

I have long had the impression that Raid Chests are more valuable than Monster Chests and that Diamond Chests are more valuable than Platinum Chests. It was really interesting to see some data on that.

Mystic Vision! I am stunned that it’s so valuable, since I think we probably all tend to think of it as, watch an ad, get a minor mana potion and an axe type stuff. I’m really shocked. I guess I’ve never tracked it because knowing the value is going to have exactly zero impact on my behavior (I watch it when it’s available, period).

Like you, I have also noticed that Elemental Chests seem to spawn more in the Raid Chest spot than the Monster Chest spot. I modified my acceleration accordingly quite a while ago. Here are my spawn percentages:

Elemental in place of Monster: 2.13%
Elemental in place of Raid: 3.66% (a whopping 70% more!)
Elemental in place of Titan: 0.05% (estimate, as I do not actually track the number of titan chests I’ve opened, but I assumed one a week)

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Valuation

I appreciate your efforts to create a rubric, so I wanted to look at this separately:

  • I like that you have valued 4* AM so much more highly than 3*. If anything, I wonder if it even needs more aggressive skewing. But overall I like that you set the relationship up to be so heavy on 4* AM.
  • I value anything that just provides my heroes XP less highly than you do. A Grey Token to me would be very close to zero. Even trainers aren’t that great in my mind because I can get it all from my TC anyway.
  • The other tokens are really hard to value since, if you get a good hero / troop, that’s amazing, but you need to accrue a lot of pulls. I’ll be curious to see if others have thoughts on this.
  • Similarly, I have no idea on loot tickets.
  • I think you undervalue emblems. The shop often has deals where you get 10 emblems for 175 gems. 17.5 is much higher than the value of 5 you plugged in! Another way of looking at this may be looking at other deals. During events we can buy 200 gems for $1. Let’s say we did that ten times: 2,000 gems for $10. What else can we get for $10? During seasonal events we have seen 500 gem and 100 emblem deals, implying 15 gems per emblem (also fairly in line with the regular shop deal). Another seasonal deal is $10 for 1000 gems and a four star AM, implying a value of 1000 gems for a 4* AM.
  • Titan flask: I value this much more highly than you since you can’t obtain it any other way (that is, I can’t use 100 gems in the shop like I can for WE or RE). And the benefits are non-linear, since, if I use them right, it’s the difference between a titan loot tier and another, or even between a kill and not. In the latter case it can confer benefits on 30 alliance members, which is really hard to evaluate. Moreso if it’s a rare titan.
  • Raid flask: I also value this more highly than you. I always do Battle Items 2 when it has a raid flask. It’s worth a lot of food, iron, and recruits, plus fills 3/4 of a raid chest for me (more or less). It also often saves me 5-10 gems on my next raid acceleration (since it allows me to fill a chest before bed then get 6-8 hours of cooldown, during which the acceleration cost decreases). And filling the raid chest has the valuable materials we’re discussing!
  • World flask: at the same time, I value this less highly. I’m not an event player, so I can’t really convert it to high value items. I just farm Atlantis Rises, and as you said, most anything you can get from the map is of de minimis value.
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hi @Rigs , now that you say it I find it quite interesting. The thing is I just started my Ph.D. and I have needed some adjustment to the my new workload. I have been very busy, but right now I am having winter vacations (In fact I am right now in Chile, my native country) so I may do a google survey/poll to start getting data from more people and putting something better in place!
In fact what you suggested is a very good idea, but I just need some time to start it and put everything in place. I will spend some extra time with my family, but I may be able to have everything done next week maybe.

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Hi @IvyTheTerrible , Thanks for your data but I actually do not know if it is comparable at all, as we all know they made some changes to the elemental chests some time this year. As someone suggested I may start doing polls such as to get data from more people, and that way we may improve the sample size of this analysis!! That would be great, I will just need some time to put into place.
I have done some analysis regarding to the frequency of the elemental chests, and it seems to me that it is actually way easier to get one in the heroes slot than in monsters. Once I get more data I may be able to comment on that.
By the way, I was surprised about mystic visions too, but I think it is because it is a very good way to get emblems for free, with the occasional 4 AM* mat (if you count 3 mystic visions a day vs 2 monster chests, it is actually near the same prob of getting one in the 2 chests or one in the 3 mystic visions!).

@barrywuzhere

I know you already have ongoing projects, but anyway you could probly just toss in some ideas/insights just to get someone started on a project like this?

In agree in most of the things you said, however those values are tilted towards a C2P player. As we/they do not have a huge budget, it is not possible to consider gems values that high. I mean, emblems are way less valuable when you have mostly 4* heroes, for them summons may be better just because they increase the upside of the roster by a lot.
Anyway, I think I will create a very easy to use excel spreadsheet so everybody can just plug-in their own valuations and consider it. What I have figured our though is that if I can do 3 raid chests instead of one, I SHOULD DO IT!! ahaha
In the long term rewards are just way better than holding the gems.

Yea, @barrywuzhere that would be greatly appreciated. Particularly about your experience receiving data from other users! (good/bad experiences, what you would suggest for that, etc)

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But wouldn’t emblems expand a c2p player roster strength more than a p2p?

I mean i believe you can fully emblem like 3 or 4 4* at the cost of 1 5*

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Right, but everybody have emblems, so while you upgrade your depth, you still lack upside, which is (at least to me) the most important part of all. I mean, to be in a better alliance or hit higher level titans, you eventually start needing 5* heroes, and better if emblemed!
Just as an example, when hitting 12* and 13* titans, I already feel like my 4* are overwhelmed, so more emblems do not change my upside as much as receiving new and better 5* heroes (let’s say challenge heroes, a HOTM or a good TC20 like magni, joon, marjana, etc).
But that is just one point of view, and some other players hitting lower titans may prefer just to have a broader team. There is no right answer here hahah, I just feel like sometimes increasing upside is better, or having more heroes with more synergy, rather than more nodes in heroes that lack synergy or are just not that scary!

Good discussion, phone is dying, will revisit later

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I’ve got a couple thoughts.

  1. Gem valuation will vary between players. I suggest primarily tracking quantity of various things, as that is the raw data … and if you have a good average value, it is easy to convert at any rate.

  2. There have been a few attempts to collect chest data and elemental chest frequency, and if you can find others and combine your data with any of them, you will get better results. These two come to mind:

  • 7DD had a chest tracking spreadsheet that allowed all kinds of chests; someone might have some data you can get. (Dunno if it is active or not)

  • @Guvnor has a titan loot data collection project. It’s data is formatted a lot more like yours than my farming data.

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I 100% agree that the per gem value is easy to set up as a variable and manipulate. That’s actually what I did since I track the drops I posted about in Excel anyway. I plugged in your values first and posted that result, then changed the values to something closer to what I thought (not thinking about it too deeply) just to see how it changed.

But, I am mortified that I made a HUGE error in my post from yesterday. Basically, I was wrong about a deal that was offered in the holiday calendar. I’ve edited my post, but here’s the relevant part (corrected):

  • I think you undervalue emblems. The shop often has deals where you get 10 emblems for 175 gems. 17.5 is much higher than the value of 5 you plugged in! Another way of looking at this may be looking at other deals. During events we can buy 200 gems for $1. Let’s say we did that ten times: 2,000 gems for $10. What else can we get for $10? During seasonal events we have seen 500 gem and 100 emblem deals, implying 15 gems per emblem (also fairly in line with the regular shop deal). Another seasonal deal is $10 for 1000 gems and a four star AM, implying a value of 1000 gems for a 4* AM.

This makes more sense anyway, as I had wondered yesterday why one of the offers implied such a low gem value for emblems.

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