Monster and Raid chests: what to expect?

Hello there, you may know me from The elemental project , The war chest project , The titan chest project or just because of my comments in several topics here.

Now I want to bring some interesting results about the tracking I have done with Monster and raid chests, I started creating a data set about the loot received like last October, and I have some interesting results that may be useful / interesting to you.

I divided the dataset in periods because of “big” changes made in the game with new versions. I have first a period tracked before the introduction of keys in loot, then between the introduction of keys and the change from atlantis to Valhalla coins, and the last period that started when Valhalla coins were introduced into the loot while atlantis coins disappeared. The following are the results:

  1. Period before introduction of keys in loot:

Chests Periods 1

  1. After keys in loot, before switch to valhalla coins:

Chests Periods 2

  1. After switch to Valhalla coins:

Chests Periods 3

  1. Analysis:
  • The biggest sample sizes are for periods 1 and 3.
  • It is slightly concerning that in the last period (where we are in now) the % of 4* A.M. obtained in diamond chests seems to be lower by a huge amount, however this could be a consequence of small sample sizes, but we do not know for sure.
  • The “reduced” loot tickets change seems to not have affected raid and monster chests.
  • Monster chests give only WE flasks, with a probability around 5% per chest (up from 1.5% aprox in first period)
  • Raid chests give only Raid flasks, probability around 5% per chest, up from 2.5% in first period.
  • Since the change to Valhalla coins, it seems like the monster chests give them more frequently, while diamond chest slightly less.
  • All the other statistics seems equal (considering sample sizes and errors due to sample), with the following interesting averages approximate probabilities:

Gems: around 2.35 for Monster chests // 4.2 diamond chests
Gray tokens: around 50% chance Monster chests // around 96-97% diamond chests
Emblems: around 0.9 monster chests // 0.95 diamond chests
Trainers 1*: around 12.5% monster chests // 42-45% diamond chests
Trainers 2*: around 5-6% monster chests // 11% diamond chests

Overall loot seems not to be affected over time, but for the inclusion of keys. Only significative changes are a slight increase in coins being given by the monster chests and also what seems to be a huge decrease in chance of 4* AM from diamond chests. In case this is true it would be a bummer. Will continue tracking my data to see if this trends continues.

It also must be noted that I gave an arbitrary valuation of items considering my own opinion, and the ham, iron were not included. You can see that mystic visions are very valuable and chests also are, so I recommend filling as many chests as possible.

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Thanks a lot for these data.

The drop in 4* mat is concerning!!
~1.5% /2.5% for monster and diamond was already really low…

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Great statistic! Thanks!

The drop has to be kept an eye on. With around 200-300 chests there still is a little bit of variability possible.

Although i do think that with inventing valor pass and two “free” 4* mats it wouldnt surprise me if the “overall” chance for them was lowered to exactly keep everything as it was.

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Thanks @Enni and @Artamiss. I agree, it is concerning but variability is high is this small amount of samples (because of the low probability of getting one we need bigger sample sizes).
Anyway, I will keep an eye on and I hope I am wrong, but it would be such a ■■■■ move to reduce the chance of mats in a hidden way to compensate for mats that we must buy now… Hopefully it is just small sample size!

Congratulations on the information. Entering it is clear that the% drop of the items of ascension 4 * have declined considerably in the last months, of this I am totally sure. I have always been very logical and very observant in detail and I can guarantee with all the letters: THE FALL OF THE ASCENSION ITEMS 4 * DROPPED DOWN DRASTICALLY. This made the game boring and tiring.

Thank you for sharing. Personally I feel like my drop rate for 3* or 4* mats are still below your numbers… I rarely got those mats from chest. The last time I have it was from Titan chest - and i’m talking about a 3* one. Maybe Hero chest gave me 3* ascension mats 2-3 months ago. Last 4* mats also came from Titan chest.

@ierazo

Thanks for this. However, we seem to fail to integrate in this statistics of yours the other common sources of unfarmable ascension materials as they may come from regular and rare titan battles, titan chests, raid tourneys (which has already been live for more than a year already), elemental chests, summons chests from AR (which has been running for almost 2 years), etc. We would be able to have a more comprehensive outlook if those other project of yours are in one major post.

@Ultra thanks for the comment. Maybe I will try to integrate everything in a post once I have time, but that will have to wait at least 40 days, as I am preparing for my Ph.D. comprehensive exams now and do not want to spend time on doing something else.
Some of the projects you mentioned are not ran by me though (titan loot, chests from AR) but I may be able to include those stats in what I mentioned in the future.

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