Titan Loot Project - A Data Farming Project! Answering "What can/could I get from the Titan?"

@Beertrekkie … my wording may be off… 3 rolls for a Ascension mat, and based off the very lovingly done spread sheet above … maybe a slightly higher chance at more hams and ropes and gems (but the same amount) just a inflated chance … for 9-10. I did notice tho… because of the increase of titan parts we may want to stay at 10 yeah.

Let me know what you think :thinking: :panda_face::heart:

I want some support for my account I am an active member I need a legendary snow fast hero please and I need a health holy hero like Viveka

Thanks dear

I wait for you to answer my dear

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Titan loot is a joke and needs to be fixed. A grade and tier 2 harpoons not including the battle materials I used aswell. And this is what I get from it?!! Come on man sort it out plz @Staff_SGG

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It happened to me a couple of times in the past, but ether they decreased the loot or something is wrong. Finally I made a proof:


But I received only 2 Ascension mats instead of the 3 mentioned in your summary.

Everything is as it should be. You got 3 Ascension mat rolls. Just two of them are identical - 2x Strong Rope - and thus the game stacked them in one slot. All the rest is RNG.

That is one reason why I don’t hunt big titans anymore. The loot is often disappointing, and I was hunting 3* ascension mats - not 4* like most players.

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Haha, didn’t looked at the numbers. Thanks for the hint :wink:

So, I wanted to see if the chances of getting a 4* ascension mat from a roll was indeed increasing with the loot tier, or if it was a fixed 3% like we see floating around, with variations due to limited sample.

A bit of math: I took the number of each 4* mat appearing in this great data collection and estimated the uncertainty by taking the square root of the number of mats divided by the total number of rolls. That’s the curve below with the bars representing uncertainty. The bars are much larger when there is just a few mats drawn.
I then fitted the points with a linear curve, taking for each points the inverse square root of the relative uncertainty as weights, and looked at the 95% confidence interval on the slope of this curve. There are more rigorous methods of determining this, but this seems good enough for me.

The results is that the slope of this curve is calculated to 0.27 % more mats per loot tier, with a 95% confidence interval between 0.15 %/tier and 0.39 %/tier. A constant chance of getting a 4* mat irrespective of the loot tier would give a slope of 0 %/tier, which is way out of the confidence interval. We can thus be quite sure that the chances are indeed increasing.

To try to retro-engineer the formula used by SG, I tried more round values: a starting chance of 1% at loot tier 8, and an increase of 0.3% per tier. This gives 4% chance for 4* mats at the maximum loot tier of 18. This curve is drawn in red on the graph and looks very good in my opinion. The formula would be (loot tier-8)*0.3%+1%

TCDU Math on this great data collection says the chance per roll of getting 4* mats is definitely increasing, and a plausible formula is a linear increase from 1% at tier 8 to 4% at tier 18.

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As a follow up, taking into account the number of rolls, it would produce these chances to get a 4* ascension mat (with rare titan one category above their number of stars)

Titan A+ A B C
5* 2% 0 0 0
6* 4% 2% 0 0
7* 5% 4% 2% 0
8* 6% 5% 4% 2%
9* 7% 6% 5% 4%
10* 8% 7% 6% 5%
11* 11% 8% 7% 6%
12* 12% 11% 8% 7%
13* 14% 12% 11% 8%
14* 15% 14% 12% 11%
14* rare 16% 15% 14% 12%

Does it corresponds to you experience ?

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