@Beertrekkie … my wording may be off… 3 rolls for a Ascension mat, and based off the very lovingly done spread sheet above … maybe a slightly higher chance at more hams and ropes and gems (but the same amount) just a inflated chance … for 9-10. I did notice tho… because of the increase of titan parts we may want to stay at 10 yeah.
Titan loot is a joke and needs to be fixed. A grade and tier 2 harpoons not including the battle materials I used aswell. And this is what I get from it?!! Come on man sort it out plz @Staff_SGG
Everything is as it should be. You got 3 Ascension mat rolls. Just two of them are identical - 2x Strong Rope - and thus the game stacked them in one slot. All the rest is RNG.
That is one reason why I don’t hunt big titans anymore. The loot is often disappointing, and I was hunting 3* ascension mats - not 4* like most players.
So, I wanted to see if the chances of getting a 4* ascension mat from a roll was indeed increasing with the loot tier, or if it was a fixed 3% like we see floating around, with variations due to limited sample.
A bit of math: I took the number of each 4* mat appearing in this great data collection and estimated the uncertainty by taking the square root of the number of mats divided by the total number of rolls. That’s the curve below with the bars representing uncertainty. The bars are much larger when there is just a few mats drawn.
I then fitted the points with a linear curve, taking for each points the inverse square root of the relative uncertainty as weights, and looked at the 95% confidence interval on the slope of this curve. There are more rigorous methods of determining this, but this seems good enough for me.
The results is that the slope of this curve is calculated to 0.27 % more mats per loot tier, with a 95% confidence interval between 0.15 %/tier and 0.39 %/tier. A constant chance of getting a 4* mat irrespective of the loot tier would give a slope of 0 %/tier, which is way out of the confidence interval. We can thus be quite sure that the chances are indeed increasing.
To try to retro-engineer the formula used by SG, I tried more round values: a starting chance of 1% at loot tier 8, and an increase of 0.3% per tier. This gives 4% chance for 4* mats at the maximum loot tier of 18. This curve is drawn in red on the graph and looks very good in my opinion. The formula would be (loot tier-8)*0.3%+1%
TCDU Math on this great data collection says the chance per roll of getting 4* mats is definitely increasing, and a plausible formula is a linear increase from 1% at tier 8 to 4% at tier 18.
As a follow up, taking into account the number of rolls, it would produce these chances to get a 4* ascension mat (with rare titan one category above their number of stars)
Trying to make sure I have this correct. I’m intermediate in an advanced alliance regularly hitting 11* titans. I can get into damage grade C, but getting to B would take a lot of Battle Items. Trying to see if it’s worth it (Obviously more worthwhile on rare, but i digress…)
11* Titan, perf grade C would be tier 11. B would be Tier 12.
Odds of a 3* Rare AM (Hidden Blade, Fine Gloves, etc) would be roughly 17% with a 1-2% change of that being 4* AM.
Tier 11 and 12 get the same number of rolls with roughly the same odds. I’d need to be into tier 14 for a 4th roll at higher odds of quality AM.
If correct, this is valuable, so I don’t blow through all my banners and mana pots to get to grade B when the loot difference is negligible.
Any other ideas on what a level 30 player can do to get a friggin pair of fine gloves around here?
Well, thanks for putting that together. One would assume scraping to B Grade for the extra Loot Tier Bonus would help, but it doesn’t really improve the odds that much and if I have to burn valuable mats, then I’m better off saving those for the rare titans or challenge events. Consider the ROI lol
Your data analysis is gonna save some resources for me. Thank you
What is titan loot tire and how it distribute in alliance, sometimes we have 16th place but loot tire is 9 and we get good mats, and also sometimes we are 1st place loot tire 2 and we will not get good mats.
So please explain how they distribute loot tire in our alliance
I think you mean loot tier? If so, this is directly from the top of this post. If you haven’t read all of the information written I would recommend it. It should answer most questions
In order to get the A performance, the player has to record more damage than 1% of titan’s health.
If less than 1% damage is recorded no A will be awarded but rather a D performance even for a second place finish.
More than 1% is enough to reach A performace even though 3,3% were not reached.
In other words it is possible to kill a titan in five people and have A+, D, D, D, D perfomance rating.
Also, B and C performance rating only exists when more than five people recorded an attack.
They are not guaranteed, every person have chance to get it. In 30 people alliance it can 5, 10, 0 or anything else, and less people = higher chance that nobody gets bonus mats.
Higher chance with higher titans, though I have found that if I finish a rare titan with anything above a B grade I will not get the drop. I know others who have, but it has never happened for me. Strange, I know, but true…