Titan Loot Project - A Data Farming Project! Answering "What can/could I get from the Titan?"

The main reason is it was impossible to rationalise the data.

In all the presented data, there are a set number of rolls for each loot tier and each loot tier had to have a reportable outcome. This made it possible to rationalise the data & exclude data points which were wrong/ missing information.

Unlike all the other items, battle items have a “nothing” roll… which means two main things:

  1. I couldn’t rationalise the data & exclude data points which were “wrong”. This could result in skewing of the data as some people miss the “2x” or “3x” under a given item & hence under-report them.

  2. I struggled to get a definite “x” number of rolls per tier…

I do plan to go back and have a look at battle items again but I figured it was low priority as most people hit titans for the Ascension Materials & the Titan Parts; the other loot is more a bonus than anything.


I agree. Battle Items in loot vary greatly. On the same Tier you can get very different results.
Since the addition of Alchemy lab and the possibilty to transmute those items it become more interesting to track battle items as well.
Looking at my data set it actually appears as if the rarity of the battle item has to be tracked as well because it might play a role in the number of drops you get.


This has been addressed a million times so far, look at the number of items.
You got 2 sharpening stones + 1 leather armor + 1 compass = 4 rolls


Oh Geez! I can’t believe that I missed that…
Sorry & nvm Guv

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Best titan chest ever! Don’t be jealous. I’m rich bytches!

Hi, about those chunk of data, it says about rolls and rewards among tiers but it doesn’t really say about the distribution from A+ to D, am I right?

Because loot tier 10 can be 7* for A+, 8* for A, 9* for B and 10* for C if I understand it correctly?

Is it possilbe to do such a research focused not on the tier level but on the performace score?

Thanks in advance

My assessment showed no link whatsoever between “Grade” and loot beyond the Grade determining the Loot tier.

I’ve uploaded to this post the entire data set so anyone is more than welcome to have their own look.

But Grades mean nothing other than to mathematically determine the Loot Tier.

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I have spend a little time and did some excel with the appearance rates of the 3* rare and 4* Ascension mats posted above by @Guvnor.


The Excel sheet is available on my google drive. follow the link

In D1, you can enter the number of defeated titans eg 25 for a month with respect to some escaped ones.
D4 to E15 have the probabilities given by Guvnor above
Columns J to AE show the appearance probabilities for discrete numbers of AM

Columns AG to AZ are the real interesting ones, the chances to get at least an amount of the required AM

You can also filter the 4*AM only, top left, the :one: and :two: button. and set filters for auto format in F46 and F47

We defeat 25 Titans per month (-> D1)
My chances of getting at least 2 4* AM at loot tier XI are about 50% (AJ10 = 49,8%),
With loot tier XIV instead, at >50% I would get 4 4*AM (AN15 = 55,8%)

I still do not want to believe that there is a drop for 4* AM from Loot tier VIII to IX, even if the number of rolls goes up from 2 to 3.
Getting at least 1 4*AM at loot tier VIII is 63,4% (AH7), but at loot tier IX you will only have 58,6% (AH8)

As soon as we get higher sample sizes we can update the percentages in D4 to E15 and get better data.

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I’ve specifically stated a couple times on this thread on that I believe that to be sample size related… most likely, the number at VIII is inflated rather than the others all being reduced.

I suggest interpolating the trend in odds based on the net data rather than the point data.


I did know that and it was not directed to you @Guvnor . And I already mentioned in the following sentence

My personal thinking is:
We have a 2% probability from loot tier VIII to XII and 3% from loot tier XIII on.

If you have more data to evaluate, I’ll be glad to help you out with the grinding through the data cemetary, just let me know


Very lucky batch of 3* titan loot just after the new update!

Muy interesante gran trabajo graciass!!

As another person posted. Look tier VII has a chance for 4* ascension materials. I would say it is 1%-2%. Because I have gotten another at this tier too.

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Yeah, I didn’t necessarily say it wasn’t possible.

Just that on my dataset it never came in. Can’t report on info that I don’t have :slight_smile:

Hello friends, look in this forum for information to clarify a little about the booties of titans and the ascension materials and find scattered information or I did not know how to find it, so I went to YouTube and saw a very didactic video and decided to capture it here in these tables for those who are not aware of how to know HOW MANY ASCENSION MATERIALS each titan gives us according to the level of the titan and our damage. THIS DOES NOT SPEAK ABOUT THE QUALITY OF SUCH MATERIALS, BUT ABOUT THE QUANTITY.


I normally go to Guv’s thread on this type of info. He breaks it down within each type of loot to get number of rolls and an empirical analysis of the odds.

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thank you it helps!!! more to read and learn :nerd_face:

Hi @Jamir, I merged your thread to one of a number that already existed regarding the Titan Loot Tier’s and the Loot/ Loot Rolls Associated with that.

If you check my OP you can see this information summarised:

I also included a graphic made by ScndStar:


From just a while ago:

Loot tier 7 (VII) indeed can provide 4* unfarmable materials.

Looks like I’ll be dropping back to 5* titans once the PoV challenge is completed. Huzzah!

Edit: Another account, same loot tier, same titan:

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Welcomed details @Guvnor
Thank you for compiling the data for us to view.

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