Hey great post ! Sorry I missed this somewhere how did you end up with the probability of failure being .002?
Thank again.
0.002 is the probability of getting Guardian Panther
1% chance of getting a 5* Event hero & there are 5x options.
1%/5 = 0.2% = 0.002
Thanks buddy, I don’t know why I didn’t realize that 
lol my risk assessment prof would be shaking his head.
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I’m a bit late to this party but great topic @Guvnor - I had a much smaller budget for a slightly different goal but with a similar outcome. Wanted both panther and jackal and set myself up to 60 pulls (decided after JF was nerfed from world destroying to just pretty damn good) and decided I would summon until I hit jackal or ran out of gems. Got jackal on my 5th 10x (along with falcon numbers 3 and 4). I’m going to say this was a success even though I didn’t get panther or any other 5* and the cost was quite high - but then I went in with eyes wide open.
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I spent more than I wanted as well… but I also wanted the hotm … 3x 10 pulls for me is a lot of money… about 3/4 of my budget… but didn’t get her or hotm… I was about to spend the rest but I did get 2 other 5* one good one bad … it can be tempting but there is always next time… I will find her eventually… have Evelyn freda jakal falcon…panther will complete the set just not this time
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Which other 5* did you get?
Click the drop down icon which says “5* heroes” in the results section
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Sorry, I meant that for @melktert 
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I got
Guardian owl 
And magni 
Instead of guardian panther
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For me I would just leave it to fate. Just have a ten pulls ever month to see what I get. If I get a legendary, then it’s a win. If I got nothing then too bad.
For springville I badly wanted either killhare or Lepus. If it wasn’t for me having Jean-francoise I won’t even care about those event characters. Instead I got roostley which I consider him to be the weakest of the three 5*. Yea, you bet I was disappointed because I was this close to get either one of the rabbits, but that’s life. And after another ten pulls I got nothing good from it, I just leave and move on.
I think to get a legendary within the first ten or twenty pulls is just so much more satisfying (and you treasure it more) than a legendary where you spend hundreds on to the point you get frustrated. So I treasure my roostley even if I don’t think of it’s as good
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A true cautionary tale, especially since the Telluria/ Vela situation. Perhaps one needs to fully understand the game’s nature and tos, then decide on a budget. Rage spending, impulsiveness can lead to disappointments, short term and longer term.
Namaste
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@Guvnor I know this is an old post but I come back to it about twice a month right before I do pulls, so I thought I would say thanks for putting this out there
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Pleasure
Been considering making a “sequel” for hunting a “Featured” hero in Atlantis Summons.
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thank you Guvnor ! very informative 
. I will give the link to the players I know who complain at each event !
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Awesome @Guvnor this is exactly why I caution my fellow player’s not to exceed their expectations and budget and really one of my past alliance members got a bunch of HoTMs but then you also need to take into account the mats needed to ascend them which also is a gamble unless you pay the 40$ for the 4* mat bundles.
Being said I’ve gotten to the point of almost going completely F2P other then VIP and Valor.
Did pulls when I was still pretty Green and it did get me a bit ahead but looking back I wish I had not have as I overshot myself and the subtle nuances of the game… now that I’ve stopped doing anything but VIP and Valor I’m learning so much and what I missed…and I’ve seen it happen to other’s as well.
Awesome breakdown of the odds. Myself all my 5* hero’s I’ve gotten on Free pulls and one (King Arthur) was only 1% odds
Stay happy ppl and spend wisely! 
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This comment is to simply state the reason why I tapped like on Liii comment. I too, was disappointed when I read this thread, but it has nothing to do with money. A cautionary tale is when a person makes bad choices that sets them on a path to a bad ending. The person in this summoning tale had his eye on the prize and designed a well structured plan on how to get it and achieved success. So it should have been labeled as a “How To”. Unfortunately the players you’re trying to help are people that won’t read your post, since they can’t be bothered to read the summons gambling odds supplied within the game. Those posters are the real cautionary tales of how ignorance doesn’t equal bliss. Thx for sharing how well your head is screwed on right.
+1 votes
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Really want a panther. Been searching the forums, is there a thread to know which is the next featured heroes esp in the upcoming teltoc event?
The monthly events don’t have featured heroes… same chance for all 5* of the series.
So Guvnor’s values are still accurate if you really want to go after her.
Hmmm now im thinking…a panther or 213 cups of coffee 