Province 20-4 Superstats

Superstats for my absolutely favourite stage:


You can see the huge difference from stage 16-9 especially in firestone drop and sharpening tools drop.

This is awesome - thanks!

Are you still collecting data? I’d also like to see the results (if they’ve shifted, for example) at 1,000 attempts. Enquiring minds! :wink:

I’m a little confused at your probability (backpacks and swords are nearly identical as they should be over enough runs with the same drop chance, but their probability is way different) and per drop calculations?

Per run I would suggest makes sense, and per energy is the best statistic for comparing runs across different tiers.

Like your pictures though, much better than my lazy database screen capture posts!

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I will for sure collect more data for this stage since it is like the only one I play now. After my team will be advanced enough I will only play the last stage.

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The slight differences are caused by the fact that it is really just 100 runs. The numbers as you correctly state should be the same. I just posted it as I collected it. The numberes could be the same for example at 110 runs or for that matter they could even never be the same. It is just a coincidence.

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This is good work. Thank you.

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Ah I was just looking at total drops and then the probability made no sense to me haha.

Yeah I didn’t start getting convergence on my data until greater than 500 runs or so and really 1000 would’ve been even better for reducing the statistical error… I don’t expect to do any more data collection until Season 2 drops, so many props to you for collecting data!

If you wouldn’t mind in your summary could you put the total number of runs in or did I miss it? Would be handy for integrating into other people’s datasets (like mine haha) in the future.

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Top right corner, first picture. It says 100 attempts.

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Hahaha apparently I need coffee or something this morning, I completely missed that. Thanks!


Thank you very much! This is really useful!

Afaik 20.1 has higher drops (excluding food, iron, exp) and is easier to auto-farm (one boss with no DoT). I do 20.4 only for red chest.

Maybe yes. But I am farming here because of the XP and when you have leveled enough team it is easy. I can even autopilot this stage with fully leveled up Kiril and Ulmer in the team.

Entertaining numbers. I wonder when you’ll get a 3* or a 4* or EVEN a 5* hero drop from 20-4.
From my many thousand runs on 20-4, i still havent managed any of those. Man… must be like 0.000001%.

You don’t get those from map at all; 1/2* heroes (fodder) only.

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You actually do have a chance. I’ve gotten Friar tuck from 8-4 (winged map) Cyprian from 11-7 (Winged map). I do believe all winged maps have a chance on it. What the number is, we’ll never know (SG special).

I’m sorry but pics or it did not happen.

I’ve been around for a while and never heard of such a thing, let alone see it when I was doing drop tracking in a slew of zones including special “winged” ones.


20.4 is very nice for the xp, and I play it on autopilot with rigard on the team

Yeah, we need pictures of this non 1 or 2* drop…this is a first.

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