Portal Summons Odds - Visualized

Player Guides
1

It is understandable to look at the individual cards in a given portal, especially the number of 5* heroes, and think of the odds as being “flat” or even. They aren’t. This post tries to help people understand the odds in a more visual manner. It won’t help ease the disappointment with your umpteenth 3*, but it might help better explain why you received it vs one of the many 5* cards you just scrolled through.

I plan on updating this post as new portals roll out or as I have time to research. Open to suggestions on formatting and the like.

The visualizations/spinner doohickie comes from Picker Wheel

Best to worst odds for a non S1 Legendary hero or Costume
Last update - Jan 2023

Portal Odds
HA10 Legendary 5%
HA10 Costume 5%
Costume Chamber 2.5%
CF2 2.5%
Black Friday 2.5%
Super Elemental (Green) 2.3%
Covenant of Champions 1.9%
Tavern of Legends 1.9%
Untold Tales 1.6%
S2/S3/S4/S5 1.6%
Christmas 1.6%
Halloween 1.5%
Tower of Styx/Magic/Ninja 1.3%
W3K 1.2%
AQ 1.2%
Mighty Pets 1.0%
Valentine 1.0%
Lunar New Year 0.8%

Best to worst odds for a non S1 Epic
Last update - Nov 2022)

Portal Odds
HA8 30%
Black Friday 26.5%
CF2 26.5%
Super Elemental 20.5%
Untold Tales 14.6%
S2/S3/S4/S5 14.6%
Covenant of Champions 11.9%
AQ 8%
Halloween 5.7%
Christmas 5.7%
W3K 5.7%
Tower of Styx/Magic/Ninja 5.7%
Mighty Pets 5.7%
Valentine 5.7%

Lunar New Year 2023

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 2 0.8%
S1 5* 20 1.7%
S1 4* 22 26.5%
S1 3* 23 71.0%

Lunar
Lunar612×597 48.7 KB

** Valentine 2023**

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 3 1%
Event 4* 1 5.7%
Event 3* 1 14.2%
S1 5* 20 1.5%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 56.8%

valentine
valentine592×586 64.9 KB

Halloween 2022

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 6 1.5%
Event 4* 3 5.7%
Event 3* 3 14.2%
S1 5* 20 1%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 56.8%

Halloween_detailed
Halloween_detailed658×609 83.6 KB

Christmas 2022

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 7 1.6%
Event 4* 3 5.7%
Event 3* 3 14.2%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 56.8%

Xmas
Xmas753×731 100 KB

Challenge Festival 2 - as of Dec 2022

  • No S1 heroes
Level Heroes Odds
5* Featured 3 1%
5* 19 1.5%
4* 10 26.5%
3* 7 71%

CF2
CF2795×758 68.9 KB

Super Elemental - Dec 2022

Event Heroes Odds Non S1 Non S1 Odds
Featured 2 0.2% - 0.2%
5* 45 2.3% 41 2.1%
4* 21 26.5% 16 20.5%
3* 19 71% 13 48%

Ele_green
Ele_green762×752 103 KB

Tavern of Legends - as of Nov 2022

  • The number of HOTM will increase month over month
Hero Level Heroes Odds
Featured HOTM 5* 3 1%
HOTM 5* 53 0.9%
S1 5* 20 0.6%
S1 4* 22 26.5%
S1 3* 23 71%

Tavern
Tavern612×598 50.5 KB

Black Friday Nov 2022

  • CF1 = original challenge event heroes now in Challenge Festival 1
  • CF2 = Villains, Starfall Circus, Slayers, Bard
  • Ele = Super Elemental
  • Masq = Masquerade - whatever Fortuna/Jove are
Level Heroes Odds
5* Featured 2 0.2%
5* 263 2.3%
4* 77 26.5%
3* 70 71%
Level Heroes S2 S3 S4 S5 AQ CF1 CF2 CofC Garg HOTM Kal Magic Masq Pets Ninja Seasonal Styx Ele W3k
5* Featured 2 0.2% 2
5* 263 13 18 21 14 8 25 21 8 6 64 7 6 2 5 10 18 5 2 10
4* 22 9 10 5 5 3 11 9 2 2 0 1 2 0 2 3 7 3 0 3
3* 24 8 10 5 5 2 8 6 3 2 0 2 2 0 2 0 10 2 0 3

BlackFriday
BlackFriday593×592 46.4 KB

Ninja Tower - as of Jan 2023

  • Tower of Magic same odds (June 2023)
Hero Level Heroes Odds
Ninja Featured 5* 3 1%
Ninja 5* 11 0.3%
Styx 4* 3 5.7%
Styx 3* 1 6.7%
S1 5* 20 1.2%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 64.3%

Ninja
Ninja734×733 99.6 KB

Tower of Styx - as of Feb 2023

  • Prior to Feb 2023 there was a 1% chance to get a 5*
Hero Level Heroes Odds
Styx Featured 5* 3 1%
Styx 5* 3 0.3%
Styx 4* 3 5.7%
Styx 3* 2 7.9%
S1 5* 20 1.2%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 63.1%

styx_feb_2023
styx_feb_2023595×593 63.4 KB

War of the 3 Kingdoms - as of Nov 2022

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 8 1.2%
Event 4* 4 5.7%
Event 3* 3 7.9%
S1 5* 20 1.3%
S1 4* 22 20.8%
S1 3* 23 63.1%

W3K
W3K587×592 64.2 KB

Covenant of Champions - as of Nov 2022

  • There is a 45% chance to draw a non S1 3* or 4*
  • 75% chance to draw a non S1 5* (non featured).
  • CF1 = original challenge event heroes now in Challenge Festival 1
Level Heroes Odds S1 S2 S3 CF1 CofC Kal Ninja
5* Featured 6 1.6% 1 1 2 1 1
5* 20 0.9% 5 3 3 9
4* 22 26.5% 12 2 2 4 2
3* 24 71% 13 1 2 5 3

covenant
covenant637×606 64.1 KB

Alliance Quest - as of Oct 2022

Hero Level Heroes Odds
Event 5* 8 1.2%
Event 4* 3 8%
Event 3* 2 23.7%
S1 5* 20 1.2%
S1 4* 22 18.5%
S1 3* 23 47.3%

AQ_detaiiled
AQ_detaiiled653×610 77.7 KB

Costume Chamber - as of Oct 2022. All S1 heroes have 1 costume by this point

Type Level Heroes Odds 2nd Costume
S1 Featured 5* 2 1.3% 2
S1 5* 18 1.2% 6
S1 4* 22 26.5% 2
S1 3* 23 71% 0

Costume_Chamber
Costume_Chamber592×593 45.7 KB

Mighty Pets - as of Nov 2022

Type Level Heroes Odds
Mighty Pet 5* 5 1%
Mighty Pet 4* 2 5.7%
Mighty Pet 3* 2 7.9%
Epic Trainer 4* 5 1%
Rare Trainer 3* 5 10%
S1 5* 20 1.5%
S1 4* 22 19.8%
S1 3* 23 53.1%

Mighty_pets
Mighty_pets603×602 72.1 KB

Untold Tales - as of June 2023
SX = Season Focus = Featured Game Season

Type Level Heroes Odds
UT 5* Featured 3 1%
UT 5* 2 0.2%
UT 4* 2 5.7%
UT 3* 1 7.9%
SX 5* 6 0.4%
SX 4* 3 8.9%
SX 3* 2 19.6%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 11.9%
S1 3* 23 43.5%

Untold_Tales_S2
Untold_Tales_S2757×738 128 KB

Season 5 - as of Oct 2022

Type Level Heroes Odds
S5 5* Featured 3 1%
S5 5* 11 0.6%
S5 4* 5 14.6%
S5 3* 5 51.6%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 11.9%
S1 3* 23 19.6%

S5
S5626×602 63.4 KB

Season 4 - as of Oct 2022

Type Level Heroes Odds
S4 5* Featured 3 1%
S4 5* 19 0.6%
S4 4* 5 14.6%
S4 3* 5 51.6%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 11.9%
S1 3* 23 19.6%

S4_new
S4_new603×606 63.6 KB

Season 3 - as of Oct 2022

Type Level Heroes Odds
S3 5* Featured 3 1%
S3 5* 15 0.6%
S3 4* 11 14.6%
S3 3* 9 51.6%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 11.9%
S1 3* 23 19.6%

S3
S3783×740 98.2 KB

Season 2 - as of Nov 2022
5* Featured includes 2 S2 and 2 HOTM

Type Level Heroes Odds
S2 5* Featured 4 1.3%
S2 5* 13 0.3%
S2 4* 9 14.6%
S2 3* 7 51.4%
S1 5* 20 0.9%
S1 4* 22 11.9%
S1 3* 23 19.6%

S2
S2618×596 63.1 KB

TC20 - Odds interpreted by player base

Type Level Heroes Odds
S1 5* 20 5%
S1 4* 22 20%
S1 3* 23 75%

TC20
TC20591×589 45.7 KB

HA10
5% Chance to receive a non S1 hero. There is an additional 5% chance to receive a costume if the hero has one as a separate roll not shown here.

HA10
HA10611×590 49.1 KB

HA8 - as of Oct 2022

Type Level Heroes Odds
CF1 4* 10 30%
S1 4* 22 70%

HA8
HA8783×731 61.4 KB

41 Likes
2

Reserved for use if needed

3 Likes
3

This is awesome! Really puts things in perspective. Much appreciated

1 Like
4

Will you bring doing this for other portals?

5

Yep! My plan is to insert them into the OP. I haven’t researched each season’s portal. I figure we will roll through them in short order.

4 Likes
6

These are really fantastic! Thank you for making them :slight_smile:

1 Like
7

The chart below TC20 seems to be backwards, unless I’ve been doing something wrong I don’t get 75% 5*.

8

Whoops! Corrected. Thanks!

9

Thank you for this. Much appreciated.

2 Likes
10

I think being a bit more consistent through all of them might help with visual comparability

  1. Always start at exactly 12 o´clock with all of them, currently some are and some are not

  2. Keep the same order: Most of them start with S1rare>S1epic>S1legendary, then move on to whatever the interesting part of the portal is, but in S4 you´ve mixed it up for some reason.
    I think it´s a good idea to start with S1 in all portals, to show right off the bat how much garbage is to be expected. Makes it easier to compare portals and find the ones with less garbage.

An additional idea:
Use the colours as well to show garbage. So make all S1 in greyscale, while adding the nonS1 in shades of a color.
Also use the shades to go from weak to strong colour (rare to legendary) to show the most interesting bits most clearly. Probably best to use the same shade for each rarity, but do keep the separate bits for each hero. That way it is more obvious that say Aderyn and Bertulf have the same chance of popping up.

Bonus draws are difficult to correctly incorporate, but do improve a very important section, so I would definitely try to somehow include them, maybe add an additional slice next to the pie chart? Not sure if your graphics tool is capable of doing that, but it would show the point that you get an extra bit on top of your regular pull. And especially in the HA 10 it´s actually a rather big part of the desired outcome. The hotm may be less important, because it´s the same everywhere, but still it´s a bonus that makes those horrible odds slightly better :slight_smile:

Nice effort! Keep them coming!

3 Likes
11

Oh nice thank you that’s so awesome Pie Charts Are the Worst

12

Bonus draws @1.3%, is an extra. It is not part of the regular 100% for each summon.

Pie chart is usually 100%. To add Bonus draw in would make the pie chart 101.3%. It would not representative of the actual summon odds for each portal.

1 Like
13

Well done, I love how well these visuals are organised!

1 Like
14

hence you put an additional slice next to the 100% pie chart.

15

This is so great. I want these to be implemented into all posts that are relevant- hopefully it can help :pray:

1 Like
17

The hotm is a bonus draw that occurs as an independent event alongside every portal pull. Because it is an independent event, it does not affect the odds of a portal outcome. You might get an extra 5* from one of your pulls, but the probability of getting that extra 5* doesn’t change the underlying probabilities for an event hero. It is a separate event (that occurs simultaneously, but is still separate), with its own probability distribution of outcomes.

1 Like
18

Which is why I think the pie chart is good as it is. 100%.

1 Like
19

I’ve added S3 and went ahead and did HA8 for S&Gs. Too bad HA10 doesn’t operate like HA8 :wink:

4 Likes
20

[quote=“nicos, post:11, topic:281071”] Pie Charts Are the Worst
[/quote]

As the linked article notes at the end, pie charts are good for one thing: showing what a fraction looks like. Which is exactly what we really need most here. It shows you graphically just how tiny that 1% or 2.5% chance of getting something you want really is.

Here are a couple more handy numbers. With a 2.5% overall chance of Legendaries and 1% HOTM, on a 10- pull, the chance of getting no Legendaries at all is about 70.2%. On a 30-pull, the chance of no Legendaries is about 34.6%.

On a 10-pull, the chance of pulling exactly 1 Legendary is about 25.2%, so the chance of more than 1 is about 4.6%. On a 30-pull, the chance of pulling exactly 1 Legendary is about 37.4%, so the chance of more than 1 is about 28.0%.

This might be fun to see on a pie chart: a chart where you could enter the chance for getting what you want (2.5%, for example) and then maybe a slider for number of pulls so you can see graphically how your chances change between pulling zero, 1, or more than 1 as you pull more times in total.

21

total = 84.90% ???

1 Like