[Math] Gravemaker cost or Tavern of Legends v2.0 Loot box unit pricing 2021 to 2023

[Math] Gravemaker cost or Tavern of Legends v2.0 Loot box unit pricing 2021 to 2023

Loot box unit pricing

Given the current Tavern of Legends v2.0 odds

Loot box Unit Pricing for Gravemaker May of each year (2021-May to 2023-May )

Year USD Gems
2021 $ 68,901+ 5,525,400+
2022 $ 91,871+ 7,367,400+
2023 $ 114,841+ 9,209,400+

Loot box Unit Pricing for Featured Past HotM
$ 6,879+ USD ( 551,700+ gems )

Loot box Unit Pricing for ??? hero
$ 17,226+ USD ( 1,380,600+ gems )


Click for Notes

2021- May

0.009 / ( 40x Past HotM - 4x Featured )
0.00025 odds
18,418+ summons
$ 68,901+ USD

2022- May

0.0001875 odds
24,558+ summons
$ 91,871+ USD

2023- May

0.00015 odds
30,697+ summons
$ 114,841+ USD

??? Hero

0.001 odds
4,602 summons
$17,226+ USD

Featured Past Hotm

0.01 / 4
0.0025 odds
1,839+ summons
$ 6,879+ USD




There’s so much wrong with this…

Most of the times you’ll get the desired hero long before the calculated timing.
@Gryphonknight , you’re on Beta, try to re-import your profile and wait for Gravemaker.
Will it take 7.367.400+ gems? :slight_smile:

Spoiler - I re-imported my own Beta account about 10 times yesterday.
Got 5 or 6 Seshats, 3 Albas, 1 Gravemaker.

I guess you’re aiming to 99%+ probability, but it’s not how the game works in practice )


Click for rants

(exhausted tone of voice)


According to the math

approximately 98 out of 100 accounts


This is why probability math tries to use more precise numbers ( ex: approximately 98 out of 100 ) instead of vague terms like common, uncommon, rare, very rare

This is also why probability math is so hard to understand


Loot box unit pricing is like price per pound, a simplification of the numbers so prices can be more easily compared by the end consumer

(end exhausted tone of voice)

Merciless RNG

And some INDIVIDUAL players will spend 10x as much ( ex: $ 229,670+ USD instead of $ 22,967+ USD for Vivica ) and still not get the desired hero ( approximately 1 out of every 1000 accounts )

Sucks if you are the 1 account

Merciless RNG is a stone cold goddess

This is why merciless RNG is so popular with casinos and government lotteries

click for freemium rant

Maximum Profit

Poor customers will quit chasing the hero

Wealthy customers will spend their maximum amount chasing a hero

Ethical games have trading, duplicate protection on random drops and a buy it now option, with zero time limit, for any purchases

Which is why successful, strictly legal, freemium games have no trading, no duplication protection, limited availability, low odd, merciless RNG with hidden mechanics



Then be precise and add a description like

“Hey guys, 2/100 accounts can spend 7,367,400 gems for a concrete hero, but 98/100 accounts will gets ~5-7 recommends for ~100.000 gems”.
(numbers are not precise, but we all do summons and know the practice)

Now everyone reads you like “You should spend 7,367,400 for a specific hero”.
Which is obviously not the case for real players.