[Math, Transparency] 2021-Nov Black Friday summons spend depth and loot box unit pricing [ Gaillard, Peñolite, Balbar ]

[Math, Transparency] 2021-Nov Black Friday summons spend depth and loot box unit pricing [ Gaillard, Peñolite, Balbar ]

Fast Math ( see notes )

USD SD Gems SD USD LBUP Gems LBUP Hero
$305 24,500 $1,399+ 112,300+ Specific 3* purple ( Bjorn )
$902 72,450 $4,155+ 333,550+ Specific 4* purple ( Proteus )
$331 26,600 $1,530+ 122,850+ 5* HotM#
$4,360 350,000 $20,068+ 1,610,700+ Features 5* hero#
$31,280 2,510,550 $144,057+ 11,561,900+ Specific 5* purple ( Panther )

USD SD= US dollar Spend depth
Gems SD= Gems Spend depth
USD LBUP= US dollar Loot Box Unit Pricing
Gems LBUP= Gems Loot Box Unit Pricing

#= Precise Math

Notes

Click for notes

Loot Box Unit Pricing

Fast Math

AKA guesstimate, napkin math, rough math

3* Hero

Purple 3* = 10 x5 colors = 1 in 50
0.71 / 50 = 0.0142 odds
Spend depth = 70 summons
Loot Box unit pricing = 321 summons

4* hero

Purple 4* = 11 x5 colors = 1 in 55
0.265 / 55 = 0.00481 odds
Spend depth = 207 summons
Loot Box unit pricing = 953 summons

5* hero

Purple 5* = 33 x5 colors = 1 in 165
0.023 / 165 = 0.000139 odds
Spend depth = 7173 summons
Loot Box unit pricing = 33,034 summons

Precise Math

Featured

Featured 5*
0.002 / 2 = 0.001 odds
Spend depth = 1000 summons
Loot Box unit pricing = 4,602 summons

HotM

HotM 5*
0.013 odds
Spend depth = 76 summons
Loot Box unit pricing = 351 summons

Thanks @Pois1

(New! All Updated Hero Rosters (including costumed heroes, trainer heroes and family bonuses))

FIN

7 Likes

@JekylandHyde (although according to your Black Friday video… u may not care to see any math)

3 Likes

I see:

image

Thanks @Gryphonknight :+1:

2 Likes

always enjoy the math surrounding these, thanks for taking the time

2 Likes

Thanks for the tag and I have my math perfectly calculated:
$0 spent = 0% of any heroes at all! :slight_smile:

I’m still playing, but SG has lost one that spent heavily and defended their practices pre-2021; however 2021 has been a sad change of affairs for E&P IMO. The last few months I have been transitioning to C2P, but it may have just move to F2P.

12 Likes

C’mon J&H. It’s not that bad.
You have 90% of the stuff in that portal
:yum:
It’s not a good portal for you!

There are incoming portals more tailored to new…well balanced creep content that continue making S1 legendary’s look further like old 4*
Those should wet your appetite
I’m sure they’ll have new costumes also…

1 Like

I hate to say it, but they’ve finally convinced me to spend some money on my C2P alt account with this portal. It’s pretty worthless for big spenders who already have most of what they’d want from here. But it’s AMAZING for those who don’t.

3 Likes

They lost me when they did a terrible Q+A this year… their business and developer decisions are turning me (like many others) off but they had a chance to engage on comms where context and vision could have kept the community engaged.

2 Likes

What will do when the costume for what you get out of this portal, is given in a month?

1 Like

I would have bit the bullet if it was ‘no season one heroes’ and ‘no duplicates’.

Already have several in my alliance do 10 pulls and have gotten 3* and or 4*.

Not rewarding bad behavior with crap pull rates.

If this was 2 or 3 months ago, I would be trying spending on every deal, not now.

Do you like apples?

How about the odds on this?

2 Likes

I would say considering how many 30 pulls were likely done the odds of it happening to someone were quite high.

The odds of it happening to you specifically however were very low.

4 Likes

Nothing. Not gonna spend for the usual sh!tty portal odds on a c2p account.

Groups versus individual

Correct

Featured heroes are 1 in 1000

Getting a Featured hero in 30 attempts is 1 in 33.8191 odds

So getting both in 30 attempts is 1 in 1,143.73

With every 11,437 x 30 attempts we would expect to see it happen approximately 10 times

FIN

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