Most of the times you’ll get the desired hero long before the calculated timing. @Gryphonknight , you’re on Beta, try to re-import your profile and wait for Gravemaker.
Will it take 7.367.400+ gems?
Spoiler - I re-imported my own Beta account about 10 times yesterday.
Got 5 or 6 Seshats, 3 Albas, 1 Gravemaker.
I guess you’re aiming to 99%+ probability, but it’s not how the game works in practice )
This is why probability math tries to use more precise numbers ( ex: approximately 98 out of 100 ) instead of vague terms like common, uncommon, rare, very rare
This is also why probability math is so hard to understand
Thus
Loot box unit pricing is like price per pound, a simplification of the numbers so prices can be more easily compared by the end consumer
(end exhausted tone of voice)
Merciless RNG
And some INDIVIDUAL players will spend 10x as much ( ex: $ 229,670+ USD instead of $ 22,967+ USD for Vivica ) and still not get the desired hero ( approximately 1 out of every 1000 accounts )
Sucks if you are the 1 account
Merciless RNG is a stone cold goddess
This is why merciless RNG is so popular with casinos and government lotteries
click for freemium rant
Maximum Profit
Poor customers will quit chasing the hero
Wealthy customers will spend their maximum amount chasing a hero
Ethical games have trading, duplicate protection on random drops and a buy it now option, with zero time limit, for any purchases
Which is why successful, strictly legal, freemium games have no trading, no duplication protection, limited availability, low odd, merciless RNG with hidden mechanics
“Hey guys, 2/100 accounts can spend 7,367,400 gems for a concrete hero, but 98/100 accounts will gets ~5-7 recommends for ~100.000 gems”.
(numbers are not precise, but we all do summons and know the practice)
Now everyone reads you like “You should spend 7,367,400 for a specific hero”.
Which is obviously not the case for real players.
