How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis

This is an excellent and clear post. I think presenting the pull odds in summation and with dollar figures is a helpful visual that will make the typical discussions about gacha more visually digestible.

One thing well worth noting is that the 1.3% odds on HOTM aren’t even close to the lowest odds for pulling a particular hero.

Event summons and season 2 summons often have multiple heroes and lower odds.

The Christmas seasonal pull, for example, has 0.6% odds of a legendary seasonal hero. For someone after Mother North in particular, the odds are a mere 0.3%.

For Season 2 featured heroes, the appearance rate is 1.3% across the 4 featured heroes — just 0.325% chance for a particular hero.

Non-featured Season 2 heroes are even worse, with 0.2% appearance rate across them. With 3 non-featured heroes in the pool that brings the rate for a particular one of those heroes all the way down to 0.067%.

And this isn’t just limited to 5* heroes either — chasing a particular 4* hero like Wilbur, Proteus, or Buddy can sometimes have odds nearly on par with pulling a HOTM, once the number of heroes in the pool is considered.

I don’t think it’s necessary to make tables of every summons like you have for the example above — but I do think it’s worth nothing that the HOTM odds aren’t even the worst when chasing a particular hero.

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