I have a couple of heroes I’m building up where their special skill has not improved relative to the level they are at. I am always using 10 of the correct color at a time. Will this even out in the end, or is it possible a hero reaches their max and their skill has not?
Very possible with 3* heroes and below, extremely unlikely with 4*, and almost impossible with 5*.
You can continue to feed fully levelled 3* heroes to completely max their skills, though it’s obviously a waste of fodder.
With 3*s it is very common to max out in levels without getting 8/8 on the special. My oberon is maxed with only 4/8 for example. If you’re feeding 10 at a time then you have a good chance of getting the special up, but can always get unlucky.
The analysis has been done somewhere in the forum - forgive me for not having the link - and I think the conclusion was that to maximise the chance of improving your 3* hero’s special skill, you should feed them one hero at a time, not ten.
The logic is simple (though my numbers are arbitrary):
1.02^10 > 1 + (0.02 x 10)
Edit: which is to say, if you do something with a 2% chance of success ten times, you’ve got a better chance of succeeding than if you do something with a 20% chance of success one time. Plus, of course, if you feed your hero ten times, their special skill might improve more than once. If you feed them once then there’s no chance of that.
I’d like it if someone would link to the actual work so you wouldn’t need to rely on my half-remembered ravings.
Thanks for the info guys!
This had been bugging me, though - I don’t think that math makes sense, to be honest, nor most of the % occurrence assumptions I see all over this board. People seem to think that if something has 2% chance of happening, that it will be guaranteed to happen once if you do it 50 times. In reality, each occurrence is a separate event, and each time that 2% stands alone and is very unlikely. You can’t add up a bunch of 2% tries and get better odds. It’s always 2%, each time.
EDIT - this is actually really helpful. It’s a drop chance probability calculator for another game. The formula is this:
overall chance = 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
where x=% chance, and y=number of tries
This page does the math for you - https://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/
So a 2% chance done 10 times = 18.29272% of success as opposed to a 20-24% chance one time. It’s not a huge difference, but it looks like it’s better to go 10 at a time, especially if you have several 2* in there and can get the chance up over 25%.
You’re right: the maths doesn’t make sense. That’s because I’m an idiot and dashed something off without engaging my brain. Sorry.
As you say, the correct comparison would be:
1 - 0.98^10 < 0.02 x 10
(Which is the exact opposite of the nonsense I spouted.)
Let me look for the detailed discussion some smart people had and try to post the link so that I don’t make even more of an idiot of myself.
No worries bro! I am glad we have some sort of logical math work going on with this game. I actually have a math degree and took a lot of probability and statistics classes, but remembering all of those formulas 25 years later when I don’t use them often is impossible. I’d love to see that thread if you eventually find it. I was surprised that the chances using single heroes to level up was anywhere close to the 10 at a time number, let alone 18%, so that’s somewhat good to know.
Got it. Hope you enjoy it - I did.
Suggesting you read the whole thread, btw, not just the OP.
Thanks! I have read the entire thing and that helps a bunch.
What you were missing is the odds of getting multiple special increases from 10 feeder if fed singly.
Surest route is to use color-matched 1* feeders, in whatever quantity. Once I’ve got a 4* or 5* hero far enough up in an ascension, I stop using 1* feeders with them and use them for a smaller hero. This approach saves ham. So building a 3* team while polishing off 4* and 5* works.