Thank you to everyone who contributed valuable advice. I decided to go for it, and here are the results so far:
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The first two nights I held diamond. I think this may have been in part because I was still mostly attacking easy revenges (opponents who had raided me when I had a relatively weak D in place), meaning I had fairly easy wins, and no trophy loss (they couldn’t attack me again).
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The third night I got kicked out of diamond, but barely. I stayed closer than I expected and easily raided back in to open my chest.
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The fourth night I woke up with exactly 2,400 trophies.
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I am winning more than I expected. I am beating a surprising number of teams over 4,000 TP, including one at 4,250. Needless to say, a lot of these teams can and do revenge, but it’s going better than I thought. I have been successful in most of my revenges, though I sometimes need an extra try. It’s clear I just have less margin than in Platinum.
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Ultimately, the early returns suggest I may or may not be able to hold diamond, but can open my chests there (especially with raid tournaments adding extra flags where for any tournament below five stars I have the teams to sit in a reasonable percentile). And I can do this while filling close to my desired number of chests a day. And it is worth it (the rewards are noticeably better).
Defensive configuration is attached, along with my high point in trophies and global rank.
