Raids are Rigged

[Garanwyn]

@Mercury

I don’t expect any of the mods or staff, programmers etc to come on board and suddenly all become whistleblowers. It’s in their best interests to refute any and all such claims.

I’ve gotten a t-shirt and some stickers so far out of being a mod, plus the dubious pleasure of getting to deal with the flag log here on the forum. We are volunteer moderators who do this because we care about the community.

If you look, you’ll find I have actually pointed out where there is an unexplained bias in the statistics:

@Garanwyn

@Anaea is running a data project on that, and it sure looks like the raid system has a built-in bias to match you against higher-cup opponents. So… Yeah. Not sure why they’re doing it, but it definitely is annoying when you’re low on ham.

I have encouraged people not to pay for rebuys in the raid tournament:

The New, NEW Raid Tournament Loot

Honestly? I’d encourage people not to do rebuys at this loot level. If SG is hitting their gem income targets, it removes an incentive for them to continue restoring loot.

I have suggested people delink their credit cards from their accounts to make it easier not to buy gems:

A song about quitting

I’m really glad you’re staying with us because you make the community a better and more fun place. Just…please unlinked the credit card from Google Play. The more steps between you and spending, the easier it will be to resist the urge.

@Garanwyn

I know @StaceyTurner77 completely removed his credit card from his Google Play profile to avoid the temptation to spend. I think others have as well. I’d really encourage you to do the same. It seems like a smart safety protocol.

I routinely encourage people to stop spending on the game:

3* only from level 20 Traning Camp

Sure thing. At least TC20 is free, so you can keep doing that even if you’re not spending. There are a lot of people who are F2P or C2P, and actually seem to enjoy the game more because they’re not feeling upset it anxious about the money they’ve sunk into the game. If you’re feeling burned out on spending $$$ on the game, give F2P a try and see if it works better for you.

Springvale 2019: Jack O'Hare – Thoughts & Discussion

Nice! A lot of people really seem happier as F2P. I wish you much luck in your summons, and then I hope the F2P experience really agrees with you!

Can't wait for Atlantis summon! (updated with summon result and new questions)

The odds are really quite low in absolute terms. A lot of people who’ve made the switch to Free 2 Play (F2P) seem to be much happier with the decision. If you have questions about how to be a F2P rockstar, I’d encourage you to open a thread and ask for advice from @Brobb, @JonahTheBard, @Jedon and @Rook. They’ve all spent next to nothing and do very well.

I think I am cursed with bad 10-pull luck

I often wonder if it might be helpful to people up front to understand how possible these sorts of outcomes are. They’re dramarically more probable than I think people realize, but I’m not sure if that information would actually deter anyone from plunking down cash. 1 event hero in 100 pulls is a 0.7% probable outcome, which means that about 1 in 140 people will have that happen on average. That’s kind of a shockingly high number. 1 in 140 people means there are probably around 10,500 people …

So, given the fact that I don’t work for SG, I get no benefits from SG being successful, and I routinely give advice that is against their financial interests, why do you believe I wouldn’t disclose a bias in the raid boards if I found one?