From the beginning I realized that even the (random)summons are literally like a slot machine sometimes you get cherry’s aka 3* others strawberries aka 4* and rarely diamonds aka 5* so as luck comes in waves enjoy the ups and just lay back relax and wait a day to keep raiding after u loose let’s say 5 raids in a row !!!
Anyway even if u get a 5* no way you get all the mats quickly unless you spend $$$$$$ hundreds and I’m not f2p but I refuse spending more on a mobile app than a now PS4 would cost that also depends on each person’s budget and what are you comfortable spending knowing that that money is mostly gone by getting 3* and doubles !! But once in a while you hit diamonds just depends how long you can hold out and if your budget let’s you !!!
To me it’s been 50/50 literally up down up down but always a little bit higher up so if you stop playing on the down days it will slowly go up good day win 400 trophies loose 200 stop playing till next day win another 400 next day loose 200 stop and so on !!! Just like in a casino know when to stop !!! Call it a day cause like me spending gems on refills out of anger was very unsatisfactory lol better wait !!
WHY are you being so defensive?
Evidence! Random is a computerized program that works on percentages based on the software that’s built around it. Look it up, it’s online and this game like every other game is no different.
A random generator is nothing more than an engine in a car, it then needs a steering wheel, wheels and other engine components to run it and then the driver " in this case the devs" the fuel to run it like for a car is your money, as without it there is absolutely nothing.
You can put the exact same engine in 1000 cars and have it perform a 1000 different ways.
Evidence! The evidence is in the game.
I have accepted it and choose to keep playing but you my friend seem to be living in denial of what is real and how things really work in the background which is only known to people like myself.
Asking you to back up your claims with data is “defensive?” You clearly don’t work in science or engineering.
Ah yes, I’m in such big denial that I’ve collected data on hundreds of raids and actually statistically tested how fair the boards are. That’s what a trusting, credulous guy I am. And then I published that data.
You, meanwhile, have no data, but have convinced yourself that you "[know] what is real and how things really work in the background.”
The human brain is really bad at distinguishing true patterns from false ones in random data. That’s why people see “faces” on Mars, or hear “voices” when there’s static on the TV.
This is why we don’t just play a game for a bit, collect no data, and then suddenly declare “I know what’s REALLY going on!!!”
This topic is getting interesting everyone has a right for an opinion so mathematically speaking we would need data on 1 million boards /raids / summonings ect to more or less calculate a true probability !!I I ain’t no engineer but I’m really good with numbers !!
I’m glad you’re finding the discussion interesting. 1 million boards is a little bit pessimistic though.
Mathematically speaking, a quick estimate of the 95% confidence interval is:
1.96 * sqrt((p * (1-p) / n), where p is the estimated probability and n is the number of tiles we need to see.
So if we want a bound of ±0.5%, we need:
Tiles = (0.2 * 0.8) / exp(ln(0.005/1.96) * 2)
Or 24,586 tiles.
At 35 tiles per raid, that’s about 700 raids. Hardly an impossible number to observe 
You seem to think the E&P are the only game that uses random generators my friend and that E&P know better than every other game that does.
A they did is design a game around a mechanics that’s around long before they came into pucture.
This has nothing to do with E&P it’s self and if you understood anything wrote about RG then you woukd have understood my comment was based on how RG’s work and not E&P which makes your remarks about needing to prove anything on this game pointless.
Many games online including poker machines and card poker use RG’s and there all based one same type of mechanics.
So the fact you feel you need to take statics only shows how much you really know and I for one have nothing to prove to anyone.
Want to know more about how RG’s work? Go look it up and come back in a few months when you think you understand it as there 1000’s pages to read.
As for being an engineer or scientist well you may just be surprised my friend.
@Garanwyn - you aren’t going to convince Ozy1 - he ‘knows, what he knows’ and he is immune to any kind of information, if you read up on his posts in the forum…
I’m don’t want to stop you from replying, just giving you a heads up… you are always a very positive forum member and do your best to help people understand issues. You are much appreciated.
Funniest statement ever. LOL
Truest statement ever you mean.
Do you have line?
May be able to use you in an alliance that is hitting 8*
@Witch is 100% correct lol I’ve seen more than 1 person go down this road with Oz.
Some people just can’t take off the tinfoil hats.
Feel free to keep trying, but don’t be surprised when you find out you’re just bangin your head against the wall.
Tiles are random. I raid rainbow, 3/2, and mono. Have recieved mixed tile results using any one of them. I can go 6/6, 5/6, 4/6, and sometimes even 0/6. Why? Because random. That’s why.
Until data can prove boards are not random, people should really stop beating a dead horse.
Seems to be a common occurence everytime a player struggles with the game, “it must be broken”, “there must be a conspiracy taking place”, and “SG is making me lose”. At the end of the day it just ends up being bad board manipulation, bad team composition, or simply a streak of bad boards.
This topic has gone on since i started playing over a year ago. And until oz and some others rage quit because “the developers want to keep them from winning”, it’ll continue to be a topic of conversation.
Guess he/she meant 3430 TP… that would bring things close to reality. 3430 would be maxed 4* with medium level troops.
@Witch, @Rigs thanks for the advice. Sounds wise . So I’ll say this, and then leave it.
I read your rant on RNG. It wasn’t worth responding to. You clearly don’t understand either software or RNG, beyond what you’ve read on conspiracy theory websites about video poker. But let’s set that aside for a moment.
Your basic position is “it’s possible to cheat when using a RNG in your software, so ZOMG I DON’T NEED DATA SMALL GIANT MUST BE CHEATING!!! THEY ALL CHEAT!!! ALL OF THEM!!!”
This is, to put it mildly, an unconvincing argument.
LOL. Yup, it sure does. It shows that I actually know how to apply the scientific method, do data analysis, and assess claims.
You, on the other hand, appear to be really good at the “Google conspiracy theories about RNG” method of science.
So, you don’t understand statistics, you don’t understand the scientific method, and you don’t think crazy claims like yours require testing. But you’re a scientist or engineer? Um… Hmmm…
Let’s just say the evidence doesn’t support that theory too well either.
Exactly but that’s just a start trust worthy results Hmmm i 7000 or 70.000 raids sounds more plausible but thanks for explaining it that was dam it’s 7000000 raids of course I never saw the 35
But all that aside from 700 we could get a good estimate of what to expect !!
Question everyone do you feel a difference in raids after the update ???
I’d take an answer to within +/- 0.5% as accurate enough for what we’re trying to understand. ±0.5% is a difference of ±1 tile in every 6 raids. If there’s a bias but it’s smaller than that…I guess I really wouldn’t care.
How’s your raiding going today? Any better than yesterday?
Lol I never thought I would win 3900 with 3300 lol just went in to see how far till he wipe me out and to my suprise I won lol it shouldn’t be possible to win a team that’s so much stronger I was happyy record of team power to beat !!!but since the update anything above 3600 hard to beat as it should be with 3345