Raids must be rigged

So you did one sample, had a bad board, and think that means it’s not random? What if there had been 12 purple tiles? Would you be assuming the game was tilted in your favor?

Here’s a board I got 3 days ago. Note his multiple greens and purple tank. Couldn’t ask for a better board:

Here’s another board from the past 3 days. Note his 2 Boldtusk and my 3 blue tiles:

So is the game rigged for me or against me?

The simple answer is that it isn’t rigged at all. We’ve got good data showing this. We aren’t just taking SG’s word for it.

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From last night til this morning I’ve won 18\19 raids. If anything I’d say I’m getting luckier than normal. I went up to 2850 and then in the span of 30 minutes where I was offline, I went back down to 2550. There is always going to be a level based on your defense team where you will have diminishing returns on your trophies, and you will always return to that level. RIght now my level is at 2500ish because people below a certain level of offense will have a tough time beating my defense team, but my offense is good enough that I can go on long streaks.

But seriously tho if you can’t deal with losing trophies then maybe this game is too intense for you.

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Define solid Team please. :smile:

If you talk about maxed 4* you are spot on for ftp.

One of the things that makes me wonder is the amount of cups I get when I attack “same strength” teams which I consitently beat.
Since I have around 12 maxed 4* available this means I attack all teams which are in this range even if they includde 1 or 2 weak 5*'s depending on the position.

The strange point is that 8 of 10 teams in this range give me between 10 and 20 cups ( closer to 10 ) which is astonishing because I attack teams of approximately the same strength as mine. ( Maybe a little stronger. )

I am fluctuating in a cup range of 2000 to 2300 with a team strength around 3430.

The amount of trophies you win is based on the number of trophies the defending team has vs. the number of trophies you have. If it’s about even, you get ~ +- 25. I think max is +50. It has nothing to do with the strength of their team.

I’d say that it’s just you got some bad boards today & good ones yesterday.

Happens lol.

3d ago I was top 8 of my country, only awesome boards. Yesterday I got some horrible ones, went from 2 650 trophies to 2350 just with attacks ahaha.

Happens that’s all :smiley:

Boards are random. Not true that boards are worse when color stacking. I raid only with my 5x purple team (faster to reroll than switch heroes), raid mostly guins and win around 80% raids. Sometimes I lose 3 raids in a row and sometimes I fill 3 raid chests without defeat.

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I know that. :smile:
It is still suprising that about 80% of the teams with “similar” strength have so many fewer cups than my team. :thinking:

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Sounds like you are more active raiding.

Really? 2000+ trophies with a TP of 2430? This must be a typo, no? I’ve been tracking proposed matches for nearly a month and I’ve never seen a player in the platinum arena (1800 trophies) with a defense team TP of less than 3000. If true then you are definitely an extreme outlier. Also, if accurate, why are you using the equivalent of a team of maxed and near-maxed 3*'s rather than your dozen or so maxed 4*'s?

I don’t normally color stack. I don’t believe in coincidence. What are the odds of dropping your yellow hero and stacking purple and getting the board I got? Other players have reported similar concerns. Without seeing the source code we will never know. Timing was very convenient.

The odds are that about 1 in every 17 times you color stack, you’ll get 3 tiles of your color or less. It’s about the same chance as flipping a coin 3 times and getting 3 heads in a row. It’s not like it’s some shockingly rare event.

Again, though, if the system cheats against color stackers, how do explain the pictures above where people color stacking got lots of the color they brought?

Look at that pic by zodd. He brought all purple and got 16 purple tiles. If the algorithm really cheats, how did that happen?

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Just to play devil’s advocate here…

Let’s say that the algorithm builds the board by placing a tile of any color, then proceeds to place the next one in the array, then the next, then the next… until the board is filled. Along the way it checks after each placed tile to make sure that it has not created a combo of 3 of the same color, if it has it goes back and selects a different tile. Now, if the probabilities of drawing a tile of each given color is equal, then I would guess that the distribution of the various colored tiles should, on average, be pretty even. However, if the algorithm were to decrease the probability of drawing the stacked color and increase the probability to draw the missing color, I would expect that on average missing-color tiles would tend to be overrepresented while stacked ones would tend to be underrepresented, but that a very fortuitous board like that shown would still be possible, just very, very unlikely.

Please note that I am not suggesting that I believe that this is actually happening, just putting forth one way I think it might be done if there was a desire to do so.

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He’s arguing that single boards are magical indicators of how the algorithm works. I’m pointing out that if that were true, you’d never see boards like that purple one.

Certainly, you could cheat by shading the probabilities like you described. The killer fact to this whole line of thought, though, is that the data just doesn’t support that there’s cheating by the algorithm.

I’m up to 253 raids observed now, which is just over 8800 tiles. The 95% confidence bounds on the probability of seeing tiles of the stacked color are 19.1% to 20.7%. So if there’s any cheating going on, it’s by a tiny percentage.

And then we have the fact that SG straight-up said the boards are random. So the data says random, and SG says random. The counter-argument is purely anecdotal.

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Sorry that was a typo. Fixed it.
Thank you.
That would have been really something with a TP of 2430. :smile:

That’s what I figured. It’s a little sad though because I was all ready to ask how to get into the cult of the E&P gods and which sacrificial 1* and 2*'s they found the most delicious.

Aife. Definitely Aife. :face_with_monocle:

For the record, I was raiding in Platinum at about 2800 TP, so it’s not impossible. I almost always got knocked back down to high gold overnight though. You can definitely raid platinum under 3K. It’s just hard to stay there.

2400TP though? Maybe with Bane 3+20.

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Sorry Evelyn, no num-nums tonight…

Also, wouldn’t Bane 3/50+20 probably push you well over 2400?

I am not saying raids are rigged but they are manipulated as all of the above has happened me over my time in this game and here is another example of why I feel boards are "let’s say muniplulated " .

What I am saying here happens far more often than not no matter the strength of the opponents team.

I get raided and lose, sometimes 10/12 tines a day so I then go for revenges. I will get crappy boards and even lucky to get mana once or twice and I get slaughtered in single shots like you wouldn’t believe. This will be pretty much the for the first match and the rematch. BUT what happens 9 times out of 10 on the 3rd rematch “meaning exactly the same opposing team” is they get slaughtered to the point where I suddenly get massive boards and all my heros mana gets charged supper fast and yet the same opponents that single shot me before can’t make a dent in me this time.

This game isn’t designed to be fair and it seems the use of the word RANDOM seems to be the word that’s mostly used as the excuse for everything that goes on in this game BUT what most people don’t realise and what these top forum SG supporters who keep telling us and convincing us that’s all about your bad play etc IS THAT even RANDOM isn’t truely what the word means as being a computerized program it can very much so be manipulated in more ways than 1.

Every single aspect of the percentage of tiles you get compared to the level of your cups, to the percentage of wins your allowed within your level etc etc. The point is don’t be fouled by believing a random system is the only thing that controls the game. They use the same random technology that is used in online poker machines which are also manipulated.

These are just possible scenarios of way to manipulate a random computer program.

In knowing this it only leaves to yourself question. Do you accept it and keep playing. Would you keep playing poker machines if you kept losing? Are you a gambler? Because this is all it boils down to as this game is nothing more than a gambling addiction which is why like poker machines it becomes more frustrating than fun.

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Cool story bro. Do you have data? Keep a log of what tiles show up on the boards for the next 100 of these revenge raids, and we’ll see if your memory matches reality.

Or, heck, just screenshot them and upload them here. I’ll do the logging and counting for you. Can’t ask for a better offer than that, right?

The thing is, when I say the game is producing fair boards, I’m not just asking you to trust me. I’ve actually collected data. And published it on the forum. You say I’m wrong? Show me where. Bring your data. Then I’ll believe you.

“Random” means “drawn from a fair distribution using a random number generator that doesn’t exhibit bias.” That’s how everyone who understands statistics uses the word in this context.

Of course games can be programmed not to be properly random. But where is your EVIDENCE that this has happened?

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