How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis


I remember last year when Zeline came around I was so desperate for a green 5 with a debuff I did 25 10 pulls (you do the math…) and didn’t get her. I was pull my own hair out mad over that one. After that I promised I would never chase another hero again, they would either fall to me with what I had or could spare, or I’d just go without. Most Hotm’s using that method I haven’t gotten, but I’m okay with that. I think the things that need to be kept in mind before really getting into this game is 1) remember, it’s just a game. A game is something you should have fun with, and if you’re not having fun well there are literally thousands of other games out there, surely some will offer the fun you are looking for. 2) This is a long haul game. Sure you might get that shiny new hero, but it still might be months before you can fully ascend them and by that time you might not even want to because you may have gotten someone even better. 3) Don’t go nuts. SG would gladly take all your money if you let them, and while they’re driving around in their Ferrari’s, you’ll have a handful of digital characters in a game you might not even want to play a year from now.



I love that you posted this. I got caught up in GoW for a couple years, ended up spending over a thousand dollars in the blink of an eye, and lost a lot of precious time with my kids. This game is a lot like GoW so people should be aware that it can get addictive, really as any game can, but it is a lot like gambling. Having said that, if you’re aware of it I think you can have fun and be competitive, just like any game.

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Don’t spend anything best way



I think spending is up to individual as to how well he likes the game and his/her economic situation. I spend a few bucks a week if they have a good sale on something, kinda like shopping at Amazon, a good deal…might buy some. That’s just my opinion.

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Excellent article, great points all the way through



The odds are shown on the summons as well.
The bottom line is, no matter how unhappy you are, the game got you to spend 10x the price of a full game as a “new player”.
As long as people are doing that why would SG change their model???
That’s what I find absolutely laughable on these forums is people coming on saying “I know I only had a 5% chance to get this hero after spending $50 and now I’m pissed”… like seriously?? You’re gambling so own up to it. Gamble and play the game. Don’t gamble and play the game. Or don’t play the game. Options are simple.



That was Very cool of you to take the time to post this @ERROR4. I’m sure a whole lot of folks are going to benefit from it-hope this thread stays alive forever. Lol

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That may have been one of the best and also short and to the point bits of data I’ve seen yet. Super job @ERROR4. :+1::clap:

PS. Funny enough that was laid out exactly like a monthly wrap up meeting at the bank I work for. Just bang here is the data and no codex required to understand. Cheers!



And just to add on to @JonahTheBard stating that as we all know the probability always increases the more times u try for anything there can never b anything guaranteed even if u try 1000 or 2000 times u could or someone could still neve actually pull a HotM. It’s built into the math that there is by a fun fact a number at which something must happen but that’s physics and I’m not letting my inner science geek out yet. I’ll just leave at this. To b able to say that ur absolutely guaranteed a HotM u would need to pull a number of times roughly equivalent to this paragraph with it starting with a 1 and then nothing but 0’s. Darn ya gotta love math and physics! They explain everything!!!

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Glad u like my nerdish physics lesson. Just trying to help explain to folks why things happen that lets people stop worrying and start just enjoying the game. And just because ur u. That number at which something can b stated to absolutely happen or randomly b created as an exact duplicate of an existing state of being without even knowing of that previous state mentioned is 10^91. That number is so large that if u used a single atom as a year and counted each year from the Big Bang till when the universe ENDS u still would b halfway to the number I just laid out. It’s official… INNER NERD FREEDOM!!!

Better explanation and sounds even more profound. There are not enough atoms in the ENTIRE VISIBLE universe to equal that number! WOW

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Too the point. Like it. :ok_hand:



A most noble ambition.

However, I judge that the odds of another identical complaint being posted on the forum are in the order of 10^91

And yet you hold such a number in the palm of your hard with just five symbols. Truly mathematics is the only OP Special Skill in E&P.



I thought this was the specialty of @Garanwyn :rofl:



100% chance to proc too, baby! :sunglasses:



And what truly makes math even better for me personally is that is and will always b the one and only truly universal language. Also ignoring speculative physics it’s the one true science. My mother was a researcher at Thomas Jefferson in Philadelphia for… and I’m not kidding… 51 years. She worked till she was 74! Ahe was a biologist and more specifically a Teratologist. She lived to say that ‘if ur gonna have a long career in academia u had best live what u do because it’s definitely not gonna get u rich’. Very proud of her. Part of the first class of women allowed to take post grad classes at Rutgers Main campus, not Davidson, and she ask on to earn 2 doctorates as well. GO KNOWLEDGE!!!

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I know Chuck is still Chuck but we should have an Inner Nerd Topic opened up too for those of us that do like to dive into the stats in game and try to better explain them to folks who just wont accept it for whatever reason. Plus we could share fun numerical stats. As a matter of fact I’m gonna start on that. I’ll put a fun twist on it. Obviously I’ll start by quoting some of @Boolz and @Razor plus some @Kerridoc and nownafysr this topic @ERROR4.



Im f2p. Cant help on this matter :stuck_out_tongue:



Sure u can. I was thinking on the lines of having a topic where we can focus on trying to stop the complaints on the game not being fair when the numbers say it is. Like when u get that one or two players that won’t listsn to reason we can squash the complaint and redirect them to the simplifying it as best we can topic showing them math and stats don’t have to b hard to digest.



There is already one: The Ridiculous Complaints thread


Also a screenshot of the odds and are good and enough arguments :slight_smile:

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Valid point. Thank u. I almost totally forgot about that.

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