How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis

I think a lot of heart ache comes from chasing a specific card. If your going to spend some on summoning make sure there is 2 or 3 available that you’d like. Set a limit and see what happens. Generally you will get something and really it’s not that bad. You don’t need every “all star” to be successful. GM and Guin or good but there beatable. When you don’t set a limit and you keep pulling/spending chasing it’s your own fault for being frustrated. It really is the crux of it. P.S. nobody cares if you made 37000 summons and didn’t get what you wanted so please stop sharing your sob story.

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Very well put @Texas1970 ! It exactly reflects my opinion and experience with this game.
When I summon I always set myself a limit going into it.
I rarely get what I was hoping for, but I always end up getting something ! I then need to adjust my expectations to this reality. Sometimes it’s easy (I once got Panther when I was only pulling for Jackal !), sometimes it‘s hard (I wanted Kage and got Toth-Amun)
But yeah, chasing a particular hero is what can get costly and frustrating…

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I just spent close to 1000 dollars trying to get Hel or Kage from Atlantis and the only thing I did get was Alberich and Mok-Aar. I’m so upset I made my wife change my PayPal password so I can’t spend another dime

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Sounds like an eminently reasonable precaution, if you’re sorely tempted to spend. #1 rule of Gacha (or gambling, or auctions) is know your budget before going in and stick to it. Otherwise, once emotions take over, it’s super easy to go overboard.

I saved the money because I understand Atlantis has the 2 previous HOTM and have been trying to get Kage for some time, just made sense to go at it with what I have saved thus far. I could spend more but if that’s the results then I refuse to. Believe me i’m super excited about Alberich, already have him to 3/70 (yes that’s how much garbage I got from Atlantis, I was able to take a fresh 5* to 3/70 in 24hrs). And I have so many 5*s I don’t know what to do with them all. But so far my problem has been not having a high dmg purple. I have 6 Kunchen and 1 Aeron, seeing Hel made this Atlantis more exciting as I got Aeron and Mushasi in the last Atlantis after 10 10xs. But that’s ok. Lessons are learned from things like this. If I had any advice to give it would be what you said, set a amount and stick to it. If you need a certain hero don’t chase, just wait. Eventually you will get to a point where they offer that color for HOTM. Wait until Atlantis spend your allowance, you’ll get a HOTM and anything after that is a bonus.

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This is how it looks like if you play 1 year without spending a huge amount of money (max. 15 Euro in 12 month).


Soon I will be able to create 5* hero by crafting, my castle is at level 19 now. Rules I have learnt: You have to be patient. And even a full 5* hero team is not a guarantee to win. I still learn and change my tactics after playing this game for over a year.

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Hi @Dizco, and welcome to the forum! Thanks for sharing your roster and insights with us.

Getting up to Training Camp level 20 (TC20) will likely be a huge boost to your roster. The best data we have indicates that you should get a 5* on average once every 17 to 20 trainings, and a 4* once every 5 trainings. Many free to play or cheap to play players run 2x TC20

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I guess it depends on what you mean by “got nothing.” Clearly, they would have received 1000 heroes. But it is entirely possible they would have gotten nothing that they considered worthwhile.

For instance, I’ve done 362 Atlantis pulls over the last two Atlantises and gotten 0 featured heroes.

That’s a 0.88% chance of occurrence (roughly 1 in 115 people will have that sort of bad luck). But it surely does happen. I’d be happy to upload the screenshots or the full list of what I did get if you’re dubious.

And it would be very easy for someone with a lot of heroes to receive nothing but duplicates in several hundred pulls.

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I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. I totally understand the frustration of doing a lot of pulls with nothing to show for it. It sucks big time. But it also allows me to see that I am not alone when the odds are not in my favor. I actually think it’s a good thing for people to express their frustration, because then other forum readers will not think that they are alone in getting nothing from their pulls. I read about so many good pulls that I get jealous and think the odds are against me. Which of course they are. Reading that someone did so many pulls and got nothing helps me to put into perspective the rarity of the good pulls I read about.

I don’t think their odds are accurate, I have video of every summons I have ever done from Atlantis and I’m talking thousands. Yes I got plenty of 5s some wanted some not but plenty indeed. For instance in the last Atlantis I believe I did 4 or 5 30x in Hope’s of obtaining Ursana ( defensively speaking I think she’d be great with Mitsuko) I did not get her… but I did get 4 Inari and Hel. As in Hel yea! I think I have a solid roster now and dont see much 30x in my crystal ball. I’m very near having 6 rainbow teams of all different 5s. And am currently working on getting my 4th team to all 70s as my first 3 teams are there or past. But for me Atlantis will now be used to summon feeder heroes (unless I get Gravemaker or Ares to go along with my Alberich and Hel)

The probability is shown if you press the ? in the portal.

The only thing we can conclude from your thousands of pullz is how lucky or unlucky you are given the known/given odds.

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We can also generate confidence bounds on the underlying process matching the intended probabilities. But that’s likely to have significance only for bulk categories like S1 3* and S1 4*, not individual heroes within the draw set.

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@Garanwyn While I get the simple odds calculations of x not happening at all or happening at least once, can you tell me how to calculate the odds of let’s say getting EXACTLY three any 5* (assuming 2,5%) in 30 pulls?

So far i made about 90 pull and only got 1 5* hero,its hurt me…u guys at SG must do something bout the percentage

Wow buy me some…
:rofl:

Spend on the VIP, forget the rest it’s not worth it.

To calculate the chance for exactly 3 five stars out 30:

2,5%^3 × (1-2,5%)^27 x (number of ways you can make this arrangement which is 4096) = approx 3%

Imho asking the chance for exactly 3 is not usefull. This implies pulling 6 five stars is a bad thing.

A better question is the chance to pull at least 3 five stars.

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Wow thanks for replying, I already forgot about asking this lol. And you’re right, I asked just for the sake of knowing the math.

A post was merged into an existing topic: Summons are ridiculous

Does it make sense to put money in a game, wich is ovious not balanced? Summoning heros is the first money hole, getting a fck 3* pair of gloves is the next obstacle to get, what‘s imo ridicoulous. But at the end, today i checked, it makes no sense to spend another euro for chasin heros and i can’t level for the reason i cant get a simple pair of gloves now since a few weeks.
Thank you SGM for opening my eyes and spending more money.