I’m maybe getting one elemental chest a month, if I’m lucky.
But then, I probably only average 1.5 monster chests a day, 1 titan chest a week, and maybe 2-3 raid chests a week (I’m not a big fan of the raids). So roughly 1 elemental chest for every ~60 chests I finish.
I’m just assuming this is normal, and those who are getting 1 elemental a week are probably finishing way more chests overall than I am.
I’m also assuming it’s normal for the elemental chests to only contain a single 3* unfarmable AM and 3 common summon tokens.
For some reason I feel like I used to get more elemental chests and also better loot from them, but that’s probably just my imagination.
hi @TGW do you track the chests you have got?
Just asking because over a sample or around 80 elemental, the average of chests open in between is around 32-33 chests. And they seem evenly distributed between raid and monster chests.
That is absolutely freaking hilarious!!! I’ve been playing 15 months +and just got MY FIRST elemental chest in a hero slot and as my stats say that I have killed over 5000 heroes in Raids (Raid wins, 1096); so by those numbers I have gotten one elemental chest for 137 filled hero chests (and that doesn’t include all the heroes who did not get counted from partial success). I have listened to some total horeshit here about this but the people collecting stats are rendering them meaningless through lack of any qualification regarding sample size!
Actually following your logic that is the upper bound on chests opens in hero position, because any hero killed while the chest is in cool down is also in your statistic, but did not count towards any chest.
From my data set, elemental chests spawn every 35 or so normal chests, so every 35 hero chests you could expect to get one. So assuming you effectively opened 137 chests in between your value is unusual but certainly not impossible.
In fact, I believe (again thanks to the data of multiple elemental) that probabilities of getting chests are not independent between chests, and that is more something like this: you open the elemental and then a number is selected randomly, let’s say 40, then after 40 chests you will get an elemental, independent of what chests you fill. In that case it means you opened like 8 straight chests in monsters or Titans which is unusual but not impossible.
Anyway, hoping you more luck for the future!
I’d like to see the numbers on how many heroes it takes to fill the regular chests that get the elemental chests that appear for people? The days should be immaterial if that is not the metric used by SG.
@ierazo. Oddly, within hours of posting this I got an elemental chest in the regular spot on my alt account. I find that peculiar and beyond coincidence (as that gets ignored for days at a time). Player experience points are at about 3:1 so that seems unlikely and the number of dead heroes may be similar?
Hi @sft1965 I could not understand what you meant, I am sorry but I am not a native speaker.
Could you rephrase it so I understand what you want to say?
Like what is “regular spot” for you?
number of dead heroes may be similar? what do you mean with that? similar to what?
@ierazo. Sorry, your English is so close to being perfect it didn’t occur to me.
I mean, that my alternate account/second account got a Holy elemental chest in the Monsters chest slot, later on the same day as my primary/main account got one. The chest on my primary/main account was my first elemental chest in the Heroes chest slot.
I have gotten 8 elemental chests in total this year; equally spread across two accounts.
Number of dead heroes? I meant that a more or less equal number of heroes died in my Raids on both accounts since the appearance of the last elemental chest on both those accounts although the time interval is quite different.
I have wondered before if they (elemental chests) are spawned as a result of ‘x’ number of monsters or ‘x’ number of heroes being defeated? It also occurred to me that experience points might be a factor but I have found no supporting evidence for this.
I’ve noticed a similar pattern as well. Sometimes my alt and main both get an elemental chest on the same day (though I actually finish a lot more chests on my main).
Even more curiously, my girlfriend (using a different phone but connected to the same wifi signal) also gets an elemental chest around the same time. And her playing habits are much different from mine, she started the game a few months after I did but probably finishes more chests than I do.
My inner conspiracy theorist wonders sometimes if RNG results are distributed regionally…?
I know that sounds illogical, I try not to peddle in conspiracies, but I do notice a lot of coincidences in the game. Like… some days most of my boards are beautiful, other days they’re all trash. Some days I get good pulls on alt and main, from both TC and summon portal, other days pure trash (and sometimes the same trash 3* hero multiple times in a row? that’s weird, right?)
Oh I get it now, for sure it may be a possibility but I do not think it is true.
I have data of chests in between like 90 elementals, and some elementals have spawned after 18 chests while others after 50+
When I started playing (think experience) I had one every 35 chests aprox and it is still the same way. I always farm the same levels but sometimes it takes 20 chests while others 50. So I just think it “random” but with some unknown probability distribution.
I would really like to try to get that distribution, but unfortunately the size of the sample is just too small.
Hope it makes sense, however there is still a possibility they insert those parameters you mentioned in some kind of complicated formula and that generated the amount of chests you need to fill to get a new one or something like that.
@TGW regarding what you post about the elemental chests, I think it is just put coincidence and RNG. A chest “in theory” (from the data) a 3% chance of being elemental, however, from the data it is actually not a constant probability, it increases when more chests have been open (that is why out of 80 chests I have data, none have been after opening 3 or less chests, and only 1 after opening less than 15). So think about it, if you open 3 chests with each account per day the probability of 1 of them being elemental in each account is quite significant, so I think it is just RNG.
Now, the streakiness is actually something not that far fetched and I think it is actually true. I will explain. Everything in this game depends on a pseudo-random number generator, which actually generates numbers that “seem” random but are deterministically obtained (via an algorithm that uses functions). That being said, (this is fairly technical, more can be checked online or we can talk offline as it is related to my Ph.D. studies) most of the random generators have some kind of dimensionality issues and depending on their complexity (number of functions, etc) are better or worse. In fact most of the very good generators still generate numbers that appear random but if you project them to multiple dimensions, they actually generate numbers in hyperplanes (so segment lines) instead of the whole plane, which means thst they are closely related and actually induce more “streakiness” than what one would get by real random numbers.
So that being said, here goes the conspiracy LOL. The server produces way too many random numbers per second (thing creating the board, defenses using normal attacks, every random loot etc) so that do not have implemented a very good, and computational expensive pseudo random generators. Hence it is more prone to generate numbers that are “less close” to being random and then it induces this streakiness (think having 3 four star AM in one day, then none in 2 weeks. 2 five star heroes in a pull 10, then zero in 30 etc).
Now, I think this is clearly not something they want to produce in the game, just a byproduct of the challenges of creating good RNG that are also computationally cheap.
No need to apologize! And yeah I get what you’re saying. I’m no expert on how random number generators work, but I’ve read a lot of other articles on them that basically confirm a lot of what you’re saying. They can be very streaky, more so than say flipping an ordinary coin for heads vs. tails.
I just joke about the conspiracy stuff. I don’t actually believe there is anything inherent in the game design that either hates me or loves me, I believe it is mostly indifferent towards me overall. I just seem to have a tendency to click the summon button at all the wrong times, when I probably should have saved my gems for a time when all the algorithms and such were more aligned in my favor. If that makes any sense.
hahaha happens to all of us !
Just as an example after 140 TC20 pulls I had only received one five star… but now around 190 pulls i have received 5, so eventually, over the long run everything evens out. Hopefully your summoning luck (and mine) will improve in the future!
No doubt, I get more element chests with gem skipping. I have slowed down on that. Reason being, I have not seen a dark chest in 2 years. 2 years! How is that possible? R N G. Not complaining, but that’s just ridiculous! I’ve had numerous, holy, nature, ice and a few fire chests since a dark one. Can anyone explain why? SG??? Give me a break.
I don’t think the color of the chest makes a difference in the loot you get. But for the record, I think my chests tend to favor green and blue more than anything else. The odd time I’ll get yellow and red, but then I need to consult the list of best places to farm.
Somebody note that the rewards of the elemental chest decresed a Lot , I mean the Frequency to get a elemental chest si pretty low , now additional the rewards is not good less than a Titán chest . What do You think about it?
I don’t actually believe there is anything inherent in the game design that either hates me or loves me, I believe it is mostly indifferent towards me overall. I just seem to have a tendency to click the summon button at all the wrong times, when I probably should have saved my gems for a time when all the algorithms and such were more aligned in my favor. If that makes any sense.