I’m so sorry for your bad luck and you know your maths, but unfortunately every time you roll a dice there is still a 1 in 6 chance of getting what you want.
I wish you luck in your next roll
This is not correct.
There is a 10.4% chance of getting zero non-season 1 heros in 44 tries.
There is a 24.2% chance of getting exactly 1 non-season 1 hero.
There is a 27.4% chance of getting exactly 2 and a 20.2% chance of getting exactly 3. From there it trails off steadily.
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Yes, if you assume that he draw 44 times from “95% S1 5* , 5% for non-S1 5*”.
The probability to get exactly 0 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^44 ≈ 10.47%
The probability to get exactly 1 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^43x0.05x44 ≈ 24.24%
nCr(44,1) = 44
The probability to get exactly 2 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^42x0.05x0.05x946 ≈ 27.43%
nCr(44,2) = 946
The probability to get exactly 3 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^41x0.05x0.05x0.05x13244 ≈ 20.21%
nCr(44,3) = 13244
However, 16 of his draw is after costume is added to HA10, so it is that he draw 28 times from “95% S1 5-stars , 5% for non-S1 5-stars” and draw 16 times from “90% S1 5-stars , 5% S1 5-stars costume , 5% for non-S1 5-stars”. So, it should be
The probability to get exactly 0 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^28x0.9^16 ≈ 4.407%
The probability to get exactly 1 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^27x0.05x28x0.9^16 + 0.95^28x0.9^15x0.1x16 ≈ 14.33%
nCr(28,1) = 28 , nCr(16,1) = 16
The probability to get exactly 2 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^26x0.05x0.05x378x0.9^16 + 0.95^27x0.05x28x0.9^15x0.1x16 + 0.95^28x0.9^14x0.1x0.1x120 ≈ 22.69%
nCr(28,2) = 378 , nCr(16,2) = 120
The probability to get exactly 3 non-S1 5-stars is 0.95^25x0.05x0.05x0.05x3276x0.9^16 + 0.95^26x0.05x0.05x378x0.9^15x0.1x16 + 0.95^27x0.05x28x0.9^14x0.1x0.1x120 + 0.95^28x0.9^13x0.1x0.1x0.1x560 ≈ 23.31%
nCr(28,3) = 3276 , nCr(16,3) = 560
Pretty more complicate but yes it start trails off steadily after “3 non-S1 5-stars” 
I didn’t assume anything. I said nothing about costumes; I was talking about non-season 1 heros.
Also, I was not contradicting anything you had said. I was correcting the post that said the odds were the same to get zero, one, two, etc.
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It sounds too complicated for me lol but surely if you have a 1% chance to get a non S1 hero, then on the second time you still have a 1% chance and the third time and fourth and so on and so on, the odds do not increase, they are the same every single time. Much like pulling the hotm you always have a 1.3% chance. It never increases nor decreases - probability doesn’t come into it?
Apologies if I’m being extremely simple but that’s what I always thought.
You are right. If you have 3 summon and have 1% chance to get a non S1 5-star, you will have more than 1% chance to get a non S1 5-star because you have 3 summon left. But if you already do 2 summon and don’t get any non S1 5-star, the chance that you will get a non S1 hero in the last 3th summon is 1% because you have 1 summon left.
The best explanation about this is “Bayes’ theorem”. There is a interesting video about it
more detail version
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liked the videos.
nevertheless,
- after 2nd door opens, you enter in another stage… the 50/50 stage.
even in the 1/100 example, it’s the same thing; ofcourse in the 1.100 the chances to pick the right one (draw a 5*) is way smaller. and yes, in this case best is to switch.
- you dont have a 2nd, 3rd, … chance of switching; you got to the game show 1 time in your life
imo, in the 1/3 door show example, best is to do what you think is best and thus have a peacefull sleep about it.
and getting back to the op dillema: it’s just a game; look at it in that way. best way to think about it and have a peacefull sleep about it 
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I’m aware of the whole Monty theory… and I think it is applicable for my hotm pulls… but I struggle wrapping my mind around anything more than 1 out of 2 chance between the two options. The 1 out of 100 does seem to make it easier to grasp…
There’s a online place where you can play this game… and those who switch do get around 66% chance of winning… I was at 50% and then quit… so I could hold to my world belief system…
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The video is good for someone who start understanding “Bayes’ theorem”. The are many things is your life that “Bayes’ theorem” is involved even you don’t think about.
In @Jack.O.Kent case, “Bayes’ theorem” will explain that why both “the probability is change when you have more draw” and “the probability is for each is same” are right.
Yes, it’s just a game. Play the game in the way you like. For me, I like to play game and occasionally learn something new from game or use some of my knowledge 
That is good. However, even you know more, it is still random. The low % is very random and very unreliable. I used to get total 7 tome of tactic in 3-4 week but before that I didn’t get any tome for many month except from the quest.
And I also see enemy Heimdel successfully revive 5 times in row (0.098%) (and yes I lose 
).
Everything in this game is about the random. If you play it, you have to accept it.
The more you try, the more chance you will get. However, in each try, it cost something. That is how SG get the money
Yes so a p2p can do 1000 pulls and a ftp can do 1 pull both equally have a fixed % chance in getting their hero, it’s just the p2p is more likely because they will have tried a 1000 times. So with the HA10 you should have got something special after 44 attempts.
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Both equally have % to getting their hero in each pull.
Yes, p2p is more likely because they 1000 times to try.
And yes, 44 attempts in HA10 is very likely to give something but there is 4.407% chance that it doesn’t.
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What is the percentage based on?
There is a 1% chance to pull a 5* hero… where does it come from?
Lol don’t ask me, read up 
The ‘1%’ was just an example
I think the "It’s just a game" argument
Has some issues:
-
The message comes across as: It’s just a game, Don’t care so much
…But the messenger takes the time to make multiple posts on a forum about a game they don’t care that much about…?
this is a bit hypocritical. -
This game can be enjoyed in various and different ways. But being competitive is one that we share…? Or not…
Competition is a critical element of ALL games. Spending doesn’t matter. You can enjoy competing against ‘Big Money’ with nothing. But you still enjoy competing. How many posters at this forum play the game with the intention to lose?
- "You left 3 war flags on the field…" so what it’s just a game.
- "You didn’t hit the Titan!" so what it’s just a game.
who says those things and also makes posts on the forum?
- Composing teams is another enjoyable element for this game. Moving tiles is most fun in the beginning.
Several years later, has moving tiles changed? Sure… you still enjoy it, you’re still here. It’s still just a Connect-3 tile game… composing various teams can be vary enjoyable, especially as you move away from mono.
(Which can require a greater number of options. Which is not supplemented by stingy portals, but rather a bank account, which… may increase how much you care!)
#3 ties into the OP:
You can enjoy competing with your 4* and handful of 5’s. You can compose a few different teams.
2-years-later… it will be evident what composition works, and what doesn’t.
As players struggle to enjoy that element further while being hammered by the paywall, these stingy portals do not encourage population retention.
Neither does, "It’s just a game"
Obviously everyone here cares.
And some of us… Care way too much…!
Sorry… 
If you spend anything at all,
–Including Time– that effect can happen
But I truly don’t understand the point of:
"It’s just a game"
Over these stingy pulls and upgraded paywall. If some of us care much less
We quit
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Im wondering what is the 1% pulled from? All the pulls made within the hour so far? A set number? A random number?
I would like to know, because 1% of 10 is not exactly the same odds as 1% of 1million.
But imo is more likely, 1% of maybe if you paid, or 1% not a chance if didnt pay.
It’s completely random it’s just easy to use the number 1 as a percentage
Never coming in this thread again my head hurts .
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Same here, Hero Academy only gives me season 1 5* I already have. I was hoping they would include some HOTM heroes.