Stones' colour distribution is NOT random - MASTER Board Conspiracy

No

Hmm, how come I keep winning?

Another pair of inexplicable free to play boards

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Two is to small a sample number. That’s what you always post when someone posts 10 or more bad ones. Try harder.

Please show me where someone has posted 10 bad boards.

YES!!! You are absolutely right.

I promise you right now, if you can show a statistically valid data set showing board bias I will quit the game. I don’t want to play a game that cheats or support a company that lies.

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Not you for one.

If you plan on making these claims the least you can do is back them up with real data. Or stop making bizarre contradictory claims.

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I’ll just refer to this post in this very thread again for those who don’t believe that boards are random:

Part of the random element of boards is that both good and bad statistical outliers will happen. That means sometimes you’ll get great boards, and sometimes you’ll get really bad ones. Maybe it feels like you get far worse more often than not – but that’s just how we as human beings are. We remember the things that stick out the most.

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The problem is that those who believe the stones are not random based on their “gut feeling” or cherry-picked observation will not be swayed by any amount of data.

And those of us waiting to be swayed by their data wait in vain.

I will confess that there are times when playing this game that I too feel like the game is rigged against me, and come perilously close to needing a new phone. Then I pause for a while and come back to typical or even great boards. It happens to all of us but it’s not because it’s programmed that way or because the devs have targeted us - at least I have never seen any data to indicate that.

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I fully agree. Raids and wars are more like running into the middle of an enemy camp with a warcry. Having to stop and dig thru the dirt to find weapons while they pummel you to death.

I often use mono teams. This usually produces so few shields that i am dead before i get 2 matches done.

I believe there should be the same percentage of colors on the boards at all times. Just my opinion. I have lost countless battles scrounging for shields. Perhapse special war items need to be in place to help counter the lopsided luck-o-lotto.

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You know, my post was about the fact that I only made one purple matchup in 10 turns with multiple combos and by the time I died that was all the purple on the board. Were talking atleast 60+ new tiles being introduced to the board. I’m all good for randomness, but the “lack” of options is very frustrating. Seems to me, certain heroes have a “curse”. For instance, I have inari. And 2 out of 10 games I got her super to go off on turn 5. The other 8 games I test with, it wasnt until turn 10 (with multiple combos) that I got her skill to activate. There is definitely a pattern. I’m fully aware of stacking benefits and more hitters, etc.

Sad thing is, there no way for any of us to prove or disprove these issues.

I do know, since the last couple updates, all of my scoring has drastically changed. Same heroes for example used vs titan and I’m constantly getting 30%-50% less cumulative damages. Edit: due to tile options and lack of combos.

Every time 1 of the 3 million players hits attack, a dev will immediately adjust the board manually to a good one, if the attacker is p2w and to a bad one for f2p.

That hasn’t to be proven, it’s simply obvious. :rofl: :wink:

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Really?

20 more reallys

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@AngelOfDark666 we dont have access to the script. No idea how it’s been actually programmed. Devs are not going divulge their secrets. They already boosted defense to give them an edge. Who’s to say they haven’t tried other methods of making offense seem less OP. What if you could get unlimited healer tiles? You could practically survive anything. Everything in life has a pattern and by figuring out how read it makes us learn. A noticeable lack of something is to a pattern. I’ve read alot of the tile random posts were members have combined results of 50+ games and say in the end tile drop is equal. But what about other variables like frequency of single color appearance? Not one post says “every game has equal color appearance”.

Lol. So in my rambling, just saying we wont know unless we get the answer from the source.

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Also this just my opinion, perspective. S friendly discussion… :slight_smile:

OK, this is your opinion. Can you tell us what reason could they have for doing this? What is your opinion about this?

Yeah, but there’s nothing against collecting data regarding this to prove something. It’s a lot of work, of course, but it’s not impossible.

Does this “from the source” mean the actual source code, or do developers count as the source?

“Boards are truly random; it’s really hard to convince. Even if we had an engineer explain it, it probably wouldn’t help the cases where people don’t believe.”

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@Scarecrow balance? Like I suggested, possible it might be something engineered to reduce the OP ability of certain heroes on offense. All I can do is try a few experiments, but I have a problem with multiple combos keeping track of which colors were used, lol…

Video the attacks?

Remember you’re going to need a fair bit of data to develop any statistical relevance…

I.e. will need approximately 100+ battles videoed & recorded.

Argh.

Gryphonkit, my wife, just asked me if the board generator was tweated this update.

Once again, I said no.

And this is why publishing odds as ratios, or worse yet group ratios, in a game is not helpful.

Probability is hard.

I often reread @Garanwyn 's awesome posts to remind me I am not seeing things.

Notes

Click for notes

Analysis of boards

Color Stacking Fairness Project

Probability is hard

An example of how probability is hard for people to grasp.

Instead of saying 1 in 19 chance of appearing, saying approximately 85 tries for a 99% chance of appearing.

And people will still not understand that 150 tries with zero appearance is still possible.

Probability is hard.

I often reread @Garanwyn 's awesome posts to remind me I am not seeing things.

FIN

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Yep indeed :slight_smile:

An improbability, is not an impossibility.

The same thing can also apply to hero summons – just because a player has done 1000+ pulls doesn’t mean they’ll finally get the HOTM or that Atlantis hero they’re chasing.

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