🏯 [Oct 2020] Ninja Portal - Summons, Stats, Results & Offers

Guvnor that is incredible!!!

As for me I am not spending as much on this game anymore and only did the cheapest day one offer to try my luck at a ninja summon. Got Nashgar, so typical crappy summon odds strike again.

1 Like

More than luck, crazy good luck.

Figuring that each Ninja has a 0.2% chance of occurring, he basically had 96 pulls in order to hit five 0.2% chances. Of course, he had a 1% chance to hit any of them and then there is the possibility that ninjas could repeat.

The chance of getting a specific ninja is 0.2% or 1 in 500, so a binomial probability would give us:

N = Chances (96)
K = Desired Result (5)
P = Probability (.002)

Probability of five or more 0.000001681056 or about 1 in 594,864 will get all five UNIQUE 5* Ninjas in 96 draws.

The probability goes significantly up when you talk about getting five of any 5* Ninja, because then you get to work with the full 1% at all times. It could be five of Garnet—doesn’t matter.

N = Chances (96)
K = Desired Result (5)
P = Probability (.01)

Probability of five or more: 0.002879149726 or about 1 in 347.32…so even that would be extremely good luck.

Anyway, just don’t want anyone to see the ridiculously unlikely result (more than a half million to one against) of getting all five unique 5* in 96 draws and get a false sense of hope.

To give you an idea, if you wanted one specific ninja (1 in 500) and you drew 96 times, there is more than an 81.5% probability that you would not get that specific one.

200 Draws: 67% you would not get it.

500 Draws: 36.75+ you would not get it.

1000 Draws: 13.5% you would not get it.

So, big congratulations to @Ded_man who was not just lucky…but absurdly lucky.

As to everyone else, please keep in mind that you will probably NOT be quite that lucky.

4 Likes

Did about 10-15 summons (really didn’t keep track) between troops and heroes.

Pulled 4* purple troop, both 4* and 5* blue heroes.

Guess Cobalt takes over for Vela on defense once I get the scopes I need…you listening @SG?? Mats…gotta have em if you expect me to change my defense.

By the time u maxed and emblems cobalt, the thread to nerf him will be surge.

Yeah,cobalt is OP. Please nerf him :crazy_face:

When you calculate it like that, it looks next to impossible if not completely impossible to have my results which seems to be the most likely scenario.

I don’t disagree, no one should expect that kind of results, including myself.

While I’m not keen on probabilities and the math that comes of it. I’m aware enough to know my chances are super slim which is why I run singles in hopes of lessening my losses (which is contrary) and spread those singles out through the course of the day. Hopping somehow, some way there is a flood gate that opens, we just don’t know what time it does.

Just for example, it took 10 singles for me to luck out with Mica, after getting Garnet (and elk which is food shortly before). Amazing results indeed which these pulls were done over the course of 2-3 hours, sometimes throwing a x10 in between and troop, silver summons.

Below was the last of my run, finishing off with mica. I’d post all my results, but that’s a heck of a lot of screen shots. Nevertheless, I’m in total agreement. No one should expect these results and please find other uses for your money. Don’t be a dummy like me, 96 pulls while extremely lucky to land what I did, was 76 to 86 pulls too much regardless.

(To add, over100 troop pulls wasted too, 22 of which were free, still no Ninja troop…lame).

2 Likes

There’s nothing wrong with spending on pulls if you enjoy it. I mainly just wanted to emphasize that by no means should anybody expect to get the same kind of results. I’m glad you did!!! Having a team of all ninjas is really neat.

1 Like
1 Like

Cookie Settings