@Smooth_criminal I suggest you adjust your expectations toward the actual odds. This reply has the most useful summary I’ve found: Knights of Avalon Event Summon Results Megathread
One or more 5 * - 23.9 % (~half are event)
One or more regular 4 * - 82.9%
One or more event 4* - 42.6%
Only 3* heros - 6.2 %
Hotm - 110 pulls will give you only a 66% chance of landing 1 or more
If you aren’t happy with those odds at $20~30, don’t spend it on trying to pull heroes in this game…and know that random number generators being what they are, your results will probably vary from typical quite a bit!
Given odds like this at a 10-pull (which gives you a 13% savings compared to singles), don’t spend your gems on single pulls looking for 4-5* heroes. (I had NO blue 4*s after my first 10-pull, so I did blue elemental pulls 'till I got one; I think it took 4 to get Kiril, and that felt like a justifiable exception.)
There are a few spending “thresholds” for me. (Been playing a month now)
First is the really good deals. The ones that give you double the gems for your money, or guaranteed ascension items cheap. The VIP pass is top of that list. (The starter special if you happen to be in your first few days of the game, too. Spending that $10 at the starting gate made for a huge initial boost; I effectively started with a 3* lineup plus Layla, which was great!)
In other words, $10 got me over that first hump of playing with Bane and 2* heroes. I suspect it would have taken a week or two getting there for free.
If it is in your budget, there are other exceptional deals, usually the event specials, seasonal/holiday specials, and the occasional randomly popping up epic offer…although not all of them are that good. Many give you ~2X gems/dollar compared to the standard offers.
My second threshold was getting over the “next hump”. When my 3* lineup was pretty much maxed, I could see that I wasn’t going to be going anywhere until I got a 4* lineup, and I bought my way to a full lineup–three 5*, nine 4*, and enough 3* that some are food. And, of course I then had to buy extra slots with some of those gems…to hold all the good heroes I wanted to develop, or at least hoard. I bought at the good deals, and had quite good luck too. I’m very happy with my results for ~$75 spent.
I’ll be getting a full team to level 60, and have items to get a couple to level 70, 'tho I’ll probably get more “extra” heroes of a particular color to 60 before I see many at 70. My “next hump” is going to be about ascension items, and from what I’ve read, that is one you can’t buy yourself over…and even trying is stupidly expensive…so I doubt I’ll be making a third purchase in this “hump” category.
I’d also note that randomness still impacted my lineup even with “good luck”. I have too many green, too many purple, too few blue, too few yellow, and too many healers. Eventually the gaps will get filled in.
That leaves me with the last and highest category of spending, one that I’ll probably not feel happy about personally, but I’ve read of plenty of people doing it: OH-MY-GOD-I-WANT-THAT-HERO! As in as many 10-pulls as it takes to get a specific event hero or HotM. (I’ve read of 10+ 10-pulls / $260+ to get one hero before, and that may not even be particularly bad luck…)
Of course, I might feel differently come May–Aeron doesn’t fill any sort of need in my lineup, so he’s easy for me to let go on by. (And I was really happy to beat the odds and get Deliliah from one 10-pack in March.)