You would have to gather an insane amount of data to get anyone to believe this statement.
This I agree with, see below.
You are aware that mono only has a 60% chance of starting with a decent or better board? Decent being 2x sets of matching tiles or better, I believe is what Gryphon posted years back.
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What I have paid more attention to lately is the number and frequency of low probability events occurring. Big combos are too complicated to compute, so I look specifically for when 3+ tiles are sent, and followed up (from “off the board”) by an equal number of matching tiles of any one color. This is a 4% event for 3 tiles, or 1 in 25. (0.2^3 * 5) Clearly this is going to happen fairly often.
Whether or not those tiles are favorable changes that number, and it depends on what type of team you run. But it’s really best to critique this from a neutral standpoint. It’s the low probability that should be scrutinized, not that fact that it wasn’t “my color(s)”.
This morning’s raid chest took me 6 flags + 4 tournament attacks. During that time I had two 3+3 (the above event happening twice in a row) that were all unfavorable tiles. This most always resulting in a charged opponent’s Telluria (yay!!) or flank.
Probability of the 3+3 (any two distinct matching sets) is 1 in 625.
If you want to factor in that it was unfavorable tiles (I run 3/2), that’s 1 in 1736.
The second one was 3+3 all purple, that’s a 1 in 15625.
Within 10 games.
I’m keeping track of these on a daily basis, and there is always at least one or two per day. The numbers when it’s 4 or 5 tiles are even crazier.
Obviously I am making nowhere near that number of moves in just 10 games, or even an entire day. This happens way too often to even be pseudo-RNG. Yes these events will occasionally occur, but not to everyone everyday.
I’m not saying it’s deliberate or that it has recently changed. Just decided to pay more attention and keep track recently. And overall it’s pretty bad.