sufficient formulas:
cups for a win = round(-1.313 x 10^-18 x C_D^7 + 2.399 x 10^-16 x C_D^6 + 8.18 x 10^-13 x C_D^5 - 6.429 x 10^-11 x C_D^4 - 0.0000002549 x C_D^3 + 0.000004997 x C_D^2 + 0.0867 x C_D + 30.41;0)

cups for a loss = round(4.14 x 10^-13 x C_D^5 + 2.036 x 10^-12 x C_D^4 - 2.226 x 10^-7 x C_D^3 + 5.506 x 10^-7 x C_D^2 + 0.0861 x C_D - 30.51;0)

i haven’t looked at this too much yet, just glanced then skipped to the end…so what i’m about to say may sound foolish but i’m alright with that…

don’t think i’ve been matched with opponents more than 50 cups below or 50 cups above me outside of some rare revenge matches where someone hit me before they cup dropped or something

Yes, if you click on raid, the system matches you with an opponent within the ±50 ±300 cups range, which will then give you up to 50 cups as reward or let’s you lose up to 50 cups.

I got the other data from my watchtower by clicking on revenge.
Since it is normal for me to lose 100-200 cups over a few hours being offline, my watchtower can show targets with much more than +50 300 and much less than -50 -300 cups relative to mine.

edit: sorry, it’s late here, I messed up the cup difference and the reward cups…