Plenty of people vent their frustration about the odds of getting a 5* hero in Tavern of Legends or other events and how E&P has become a blatant money grab, supposedly since Zynga took over - I haven’t played that long. But there is an aspect that I hardly ever see mentioned, and that really offends me: “at how much money does SGG/Zynga value a 5* hero?” Because that’s what underpins drop rates, stats, etc…
Here are the ingredients:
10000 gems cost 100 USD
Tavern of Legends: 7500 gems = 30 summons, so 10000 gems = 40 summons
On average, 40 summons will give you: 1 x 5* hero (2.5% total chance fot HOTM or classic, approx 50/50 split), 11 x 4* hero (26.5% chance) and 28 x 3* hero (71% chance). (Note: I understand stats, I know that 40 summons doesn’t guarantee you a 5*, but if you repeat the experiment often enough then - on average - 40 summons will give you the above)
I need to make 2 assumptions:
Let’s assume that any 5* hero (HOTM or classic in the case of ToL) has the same value. Ofc the HOTM is more valuable, but for simplicity’s sake let’s assume they’re all the same
Let’s assume the rest of the 40 summons (the 11 4*'s and the 28 3*'s) also have some value; let’s assume they make up 1/3rd of the total value and the 5* the remaining 2/3rd. No idea if that’s fair? I’d say I’m being generous by associating 1/3rd of the value to 3* and 4*, but that would likely vary with how long you’ve been playing.
That means that - through the combination of cost of gems, gems per summon, and odds per summon - SGG/Zynga values a 5* hero at approx 67 USD (you can fiddle around with the assumptions, but you’re always gonna end up between 50 and 100 USD). I find that shocking, offensive and even obscene.
It is your money and of course anyone can spend it in whichever way they see fit. But pls. be reminded that, when you buy a product (any product), you implicitly agree with the valuation of the product by the seller. And if you disagree with that valuation, then you should not buy it. On principle! It’s the only power you hold as a customer.
Interesting math all around, but wish we had an actual average cost.
For example - the person who gets a 5-star from TC20 expended $0, while another person who gets a 5-star from an event portal may have spent $200. Would be nice to know the actual average cost, vice a theoretical. Impossible, of course, but would be handy.
Doesn’t dilute what you’re finding/calculating - I’m just interested.
Remember, I’m trying to take the SGG/Zynga point-of-view here. It’s the combination of gem cost, summon cost and drop rate that implies a cost / value they associate with a 5* hero.
As individual players, we see anecdotal evidence. We see things like “lucky” and “unlucky”, we hope for (or chase?) specific heroes. Unless you’re a player that spends amounts of money I don’t wanna contemplate, your numbers are too low to properly apply probability / statistics.
But from SGG/Zynga’s POV, the numbers are large enough to make this an exact science. They see 40 summons come in - and the $$$ equivalent of that - before they have to fork over a 5* hero. Like clockwork. That’s why you can do a fairly reliable calculation of the value / cost they set (albeit with a hidden price tag).
OK, let me try to correct for 2 things:
The trickle feed of free gems/tokens/coins/whatevers that you get from map stages, mystic visions, boxes, titans, etc. I’m 100% confident SGG/Zynga could give us the exact figures on what proportion they make up, but I’d say that 10% is a very generous estimate. So only 90% are actually paid for, and my estimated valuation drops to about 60 USD. I am still equally offended by that number
The 5* heroes we get from TC20. Bringing those into the equation would require too many assumptions. I know this goes against my original idea of valuing a generic 5* hero (for simplicity), but TC20 essentially devalues the “classic” 5* heroes. So if an 80-pull gave you 1 classic and 1 special (HOTM for ToL), the value split would not be 60$-60$, but probably $40-$80 or even more skewed. I think most of you would agree that the classic 5* heroes are not what makes us spend money. And SGG/Zynga clearly also see it that way: they invent costumes so we can spend money on them to make them valuable again, and ensure that S2/S3/HOTM/etc. 5s are OP compared to classic 5s. So if anything, TC20 probably pushes the valuation of the 5* heroes that we spend money on from 60 USD to upwards of 80 USD.
That’s fair. But we don’t know how many ‘lucky few’ (or is it more?) get an event hero with free tokens, or an old HOTM with just a single paid 10x. Yes, the forums give us some data, but a) the forums are only a small, small population; and b) people here to tend whine far more (about boards; crap summons; etc) than provide the positive ‘wins’ they get.
Agreed. For example, every one of the 30 5* heros I have in my F2P account was just that, free. In my main account I did 2 10-pulls in Guardians and got Panther in one and the HotM in the other. Then again, I did a 10-pull in costume and got 10 3*s…
I know people who spent $30,000 USD the first 6 month of Magic the Gathering ( btw they often got the money back from reselling). I have teammates that quit Empires after they got their credit card statements from chasing a hero that have similar disposable income. There are accusations of old Zynga bypassing Google and Apple to keep more of the money.
Weeeellllll, let us not spend money then. I reckon we would sleep happy and without guilt saving our wallets from the misery of chasing 5 star heroes. I have seen several F2Players have 5 star heroes from TC20s and as lucky draw from free coins, tokens and keys. They sleep better than us. They were right all along.
I will have to say not a big spender and having good luck on Tavern…did the two deals this weekend completed the quest and recieved Justice, Albright, Khiona and one legendary 5* Dominica, not including the 4* i recieved. If i would have just completed the quest i would have recieved Albright and Dominica.
Good for you that you were lucky on the second ToL. I got nothing of worth this event but got a second GM last ToL on a 10x pull.
Unlike the previous ToL, it appears they currently have a Legends’ Ultimate Offer for 30x pull but only costing a player approx the same amount for doing a x10 pull. Aside from money constraints, I didn’t bite. I saw a youtuber earlier who got that offer but after doing it one by one, he got no 5 star hero.
In terms of the value, I don’t think it’s possible to actually calculate. But I suppose I think of value a different way. When I spend on a portal, I evaluate the 30/100 USD not in terms of the value of getting a hero, but rather the assumption that I get either a hero I don’t want or nothing. In that valuation, I will now take the money and put it into the stock market since that will always still hve some value unlike an unsuccessful portal summon.
There are exceptions. Some heroes I will value at a 30 pull (not many, sadly).Another exception is the 3000K TOL deal since 30USD is a low threshold for me for the value I might get from pulling a hotm I don’t have and 30 pulls at a dollar each I think is more than fair.
Anyway, I’m just saying that there may be no set value per hero, but that each player will implicitly value each hero and SHOULD pull according to that valuation (knowing that going above that valuation just results in feeling sour). Add to that the fact that even at equal odds some heroes are generally more valuable than others (e.g., Grave vs Margaret) and that this valuation can change over time (Kunchen who?) and it just becomes too murky to set a single value for all heroes.
They had the same deal the last day of the first tavern also. I remember because I got 3x heroes from it, 1 hotm dupe, 1 TC20 dupe, and a TC20 hero I was still missing.
Thank you for mentioning this… I promptly purchased the offer, and received an Onatel AND Aeron in the 30 pull… so I got 2 5* for $15 each. I’ll take that!
I didnt have either of those HOtM so a win win for me.
I am not sure. I believe it was a different offer because if there was, I may be inclined to buy it on the first ToL as it is way way way cheaper. I remembered because I used a x10 pull on the last day of ToL and only got a dupe GM.
It was the same offer on the first TOL - just many were perturbed at the horrible (yet very advertised) odds of the portal. Guess it failed to meet expectations, yet again.
I’m playing for maybe 10-12 weeks now and I initially spent a bit to kick-start my empire and heroes but right now I don’t really see the point. I’ll soon have 12 heroes at 2-60 or 3-60 (also have a few maxed 3* and 4*) waiting for ascension items (gloves and compasses mostly) so why would I chose to spend more? For heroes I can’t level up anyway? No thanks, I’ll just wait for ascension stuff and maybe spend more once I have anything to spend on but I’m not buying those items for outlandish prices…
