Extremely low chance on drawing 5* event heroes

Here some pics, you can even find them ingame as said above:

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Standard event and elemental summons are visible in the gate as posted by @Derpatron.
For Atlantis:

  • Rare hero: 21.8%
  • Epic hero: 11.9%
  • Legendary hero: 1.2%
  • Rare Season 2 hero: 49.2%
  • Epic Season 2 hero: 14.6%
  • Legendary Season 2 hero: 1.3%

For the monthly challenge events:

  • Rare hero: 71.0%
  • Epic hero: 20.8%
  • Legendary hero: 1.5%
  • Epic Event hero: 5.7%
  • Legendary Event hero: 1.0%
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Thank you. I never noticed the tiny i button before. We have a lot of new players who wanted the info.

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All the discussion over a year and we have not yet even formulated reliably testable hypotheses. But it can be done, surely.

1 - The data Brobb was talking about was not collected with temporal variance hypothesis in mind. Otherwise a dataset of 1000 pulls with puller and time variables can be sufficient to at least suggest if pull odds vary according to puller and time characteristics. Just try to collect spending data (overall and last month for example for each puller that does the pulling) and record time, perhaps with tournament and element of the month in record. 1000 pulls from perhaps 100 players with some variation in how they play the game can be enough to test a simple temporal and player based variation hypotheses.

2 - data is not useless . It is still a good measure of the average odds in the data collection period. But nothing more. And unfortunately it cannot say anything about temporal variation. But as I stated above, that is not difficult to test either. With different data. And perhaps more data here is better to give us better resolution.

3 - If odds are varying depending on global characteristics such as trophy counts of different types of players, spending patterns etc. It might be very difficult to get higher resolution than average odds for a given period. But with a game of so many moving parts a stable complex algorithm to vary odds would be not easy to develop. No reason to believe it does not exist but we need some observed patterns backed up by data to even see how we can test for it.

It’s only getting worse over time. 1% chance for event 5*. Greedy developers. I spend zero on events now.

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Well this is 2.5 years old and didn’t age well. Shows you how much sg thinks of your opinion. They take, write it on toilet paper, and wipe their culos with it. Stop spending money on these clowns.

I am finding out this seems true. Also new heroes are constantly frequently being rolled out with better stats than those you have invested in, so you have to try and update to be on par.

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Looks like. I did two 30x summons without a single 5* hero; just abt 90% of 3* and rest 4* heroes, and that in Black Friday 50% guaranteed legendary hero. What a bunch of crock.

Would you mind showing me where you found this 50% guarantee for a 5* hero?

20chars of English problem :sweat_smile:

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50% better.

Not 50%.

Common mistake we see here every year.

Wow. I thought my luck was bad. This original post would have had me quit immeditely :rage::sob:

Was written in the summons

Yes bro, I had same. I must’ve spent close to $1,500 US for similar draws of heroes. Last set was three 10x pulls on the goblins summon and got just a handful of goblins of 3* and rest were the regular heroes; and just one regular 5* hero. You’re right just pure greed and not no algorithm.

Mistake…that is misleading which is equivalent to duping the players. If it is 50% better, then 50% better than what? 50% better than crap is still crap.

If you got any 5* from 30 pulls you were beating the stated odds.

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50% better than the usual odds for a portal? I always take a look at the stated % in each portal. Then you cannot be shocked when you get nothing with less than 100 pulls.

If you do 100 or more and still get nothing, thats terrible bad luck.

Of course SG like to give us 0.4% odds these days, so even 100 isnt enough :man_shrugging: