That’s great 
as soon as i get home i will run some stats.
This is what I provide for our young alliance…
https://tao.works/war/checkup.php
Basically the average team power and variance tells me right away we would have an impossible task ahead… however, i will calculate yours and get back to you
You know that team power is a very unreliable measurement for the strength of a team ?
It gives you a very rough estimate what to expect……like 4000 against 3000 will win most of the time.
Within aproximately 500 points it is basically worthless and you have to look at the heroes in the team.
Very, very nice work you do for your alliance.
Question about variance:
Unfortunately my days at university are some times back so what exactely do mean with the variance in your spread sheet ?
Considering the defense team example:
It is very dispeller heavy ( 3 heroes ) but one has to work with the resources one has. 
Wouldn’t it be better if Sonja and Sabina changed places ?
Sonja generates mana faster and Sabina could Profit from some stray hits.
There could be made an argument to use Hua Tao as a tank. He has less TP but a better defense than Gormek and if Gormek fires his special first Hua would profit.
Huas Special also seem to be better in braking the attackers “flow”.
Concerning the pairing.
It is not a pure ladder system and I dont know how much they weight wins and losses but it seems clear that win/loss ratio plays a role in pairing in a way that many wins including other factors will pair you up and many losses will pair you down.
Good luck with your next war.
All our defensive teams were defeated in the first three hours… 
A boring war, another boring war.
My alliance is expecting for the chest results to continue playing wars.
Keep in mind, Vica, that you only see 5 of the 30 war heroes of the other team. Some people have five great heroes but very little depth. Others may have five in-progress 5* but 25 maxed 4*. The latter will be harder to beat in war, but will have a lower statistic based on just what you can see.
As I understand how staff has set up matching, the team power statistic is a starting point for matching. But if you’ve lost several wars recently, they down-tweak that statistic—saying, in effect, “for whatever reason, the summary statistic we’ve been using for this team overstates their actual performance.” Likewise, if you’ve been winning, that suggests the TP understates your alliance’s actual performance.
Given that we all know that the TP statistic isn’t particularly great–i.e., that it has errors–then it seems entirely appropriate to put in some adjustments to rebalance those errors.
Re: team power… yes, correct - team power is just a rough guide for us- which is why, when we are matched with an alliance and the spread between their average power vs our average power is circa 1000 points- then we pretty much know we cannot win.
Awwe thank you
Actually I just mean the standard deviation of a population (square root of population variance). Maybe I should have the website updated and be more precise 
but I just wanted to give our alliance a rough indication of deviation without too much jargon on the site – so, if the average opposition defense is circa 3150 with circa 200 deviation then expect the range of defense opponents to be mostly in the range 2950 - 3350 … which describes how we saw the opponents on the field.
Could be! Not to get off topic here – but I created a “defense Team Advisor” page here https://tao.works/defense/
It’s very simple / very basic - a “how it works” section below - again, aimed to help our alliance with putting the tank in center and the less stamina / health at the sides. It’s still “work in progress” with this and I do like the idea of fast mana … so, I will have to look at that and see about updating the calculator. As it stands, for us is useful guide - you are absolutely more than welcome to use the helper - if it is helpful - great - glad to be of help For us, we actually find the focus on defense and health attributes gives us generally a better survival rate … but, again it’s no means a final product at this stage.
Thanks - we discussed this in our alliance and looks like we will continue to plough onwards … .hopefully something will change in future.
Again, thanks Kerridoc for taking time and coming back to me re: matching process.
Another thing I wanted to pick up on – maybe you or Elayanith can help – the point allocation.
To keep the math simple - suppose we have 2 alliances - each have 10 teams; each team has a defense team power of 2000. Based on this, assume we are “perfectly balanced”. Suppose the total points awarded would be 1500 – meaning, each player is “worth” 150 points each.
Now, suppose one of the alliance has a more strong team defense - say 3000 each (i.e. 10 members, each are exactly 3000 each). Since the total points awarded is equal - again, the points awarded for the 3000 average is 150 each.
How is this fair?
The result is - defeating a 3k team would earn 150 points whereas defeating a 2k team – also earns 150 points.
Then the balance of team power is truly equal - then the “points per team” is fair - I accept that. But, when we are mis-matched - making matters worse is that the lower power team awards a higher points average than the higher power team.
We saw this with our last war – my defense was 3437 - and if I was defeated the opposition would get 195 points. Whereas “delikvent1” (opponent) having a defense of 3431 - would gain only 179 points. So, in this case – our alliance has a circa 10% disadvantage to point collection - on top of a 32% power drop due to matching.
In other words - when we have a mis-matched war - we see the points over-stated since the stronger team is awarded more points by clearing the weaker team.
Again, keep in mind that there is a team score that looks at the top 30 heroes per player, and there’s a point allocation based on the defensive teams’ troop-adjusted HP. So those two metrics aren’t quite as aligned as your post suggests they might be.
But you raise a fair point: any imbalances in the relative team strength isn’t reflected in the points. I could imagine a different allocation. For example, suppose that instead of allocating 1500 points among each side, you take 3000 points and allocate them across all of the teams? Or, perhaps, a blended approach, with 1000 points first allocated to each team and the remaining 1000 points allocated across the teams. This would increase the value of the weaker team taking down the stronger team. (I worry, though, that this metric could be gamed by setting out some very weak teams; SGG would have to work that through to be sure it doesn’t incentivize that sort of issue.)
@Bernya I calculated quickly…
Norther Ice:
| AVG | 3,329 |
|---|---|
| var | 127,852 |
| dev | 358 |
Sweden allstars
| AVG | 3,687 |
|---|---|
| var | 47,627 |
| dev | 218 |
So – we could think “within 500 range” (almost) - but a couple of immediate insights - their deviation is much lower – meaning their range of defenses would be like 3400 - 3800 in over 60% of cases - which is tough. Plus the points distortion (Sweden get more points when clearing your defenses - on a relative basis - due to mismatching).
However - the M-W U test - I calculate 122 vs 557 - on its own “doesn’t mean much” other than if you truly were balanced then I would expect a U test of 338 each – interpreting that NI are ranked under average and SA are ranked over average.
So - the defeat is obvious given the statistics – same was true in our alliance and the war we just lost.
@JonahTheBard - I tried to find your opponents but sorry, I’m struggling with those Russian letters (lame, I know).
$$$Украина$$$ -13th one down. I think it’s Ukrainian judging by the blue and yellow.
Interesting stats, but war matching looks at 30 heroes, not just the 5 defensive heroes. Those 5 do get more weight in the TP calculation, though.
You know, if people put as much effort into coordinating and fighting wars as they spend on ■■■■■■■■ that they aren’t fair and they can’t win, they might actually win a few.
Troops are already used by the 30 heros which means these troops points are already included within the heros TP score and yet they are being counted again seperately and added on top.
Why are troops counted twice?
They aren’t. Hero power is completely independent of troops. Team power shown, e.g. on raids, is the sum of the five hero’s power plus the power of each equipped troop (= 
* 10 + level, so a level 30 4* troop adds 4 * 10 + 30 = 70 points to the team power). In calculating the war power stat, they don’t know which troops you’ll choose so they assume a rainbow team and look at the troops you’d assign. Completely parallel.
Please help me out here.
A heros power is made up of it’s attack, defense and health score plus special skills coming from the troops.
CORRECT?
Something’s not working with that link.
Yea I know that’s why i changed it