Wu Kong misses a lot more since a patch couple of weeks ago

Ok so ‚infinite‘ is the keyword for this statement…Ty Mik

Okay @Zarsten I’m on the same page with you. I get it and agree that if there’s a significantly high number of those streaks in a sample, that would be a problem which the coders need to fix. But we haven’t established that it’s a problem yet. Do you have data for that or are you just guessing based on visuals? Because if there’s one thing I know, it’s that eyeing things is incredibly unreliable and not valid. Our eyes and our brains see and interpret what it wants to see and the only thing we can trust is real, hard data.

I tested Wu by recording videos, all in a row without breaks and without cutting any out. I recorded every tile hit and miss while Wu was active and found there was nothing wrong with him. What I also found is that those tiles add up really quickly to the point that you can have that 1 in 100 chance occur several times in a play period just from the shear number of matches you’re making with Wu active.

So my challenge to you is to record the videos, record the data, analyze it and post it all here. I am genuinely curious if there is an issue with the streaks. It would also be good info for SG to see because they’re not going to go fix anything that isn’t apparently wrong, so if it’s wrong you have to make it apparent. I understand if you don’t want to take the time to do it, but just guessing that it’s a problem isn’t going to solve it…they need specifics about what’s happening.

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I know that they take a look into the forum from time to time. And when they read the excellent posts of GloriousCodger, then they have all the specifics they need. For them it’s a piece of cake to investigate, because they have the source code. But I’m afraid that there can be several reasons why they might don’t do anything about it:

  • maybe they don’t take a look into this thread any more, because it was kind of ‘solved’ :slight_smile:
  • maybe there are several other bugs and new features more important right now so that they put this one on the back burner
  • my biggest concern: maybe they don’t want to change the RNG algorithms afterwards, because it could unbalance existing heroes. The time they tested, balanced and finally introduced heroes like Wu, the RNG algorithms were already defected. If they fix the algorithms now, maybe those heroes are suddenly more powerful or otherwise unbalanced with corrected algorithms…
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To me, the biggest problem with Wu’s special is the inconsistency seen when firing other heroes specials. They miss at much more than a 32% rare. I’m no maths expert, but I’m darn good in simple math. (BTW, I don’t have the time or desire to video and track my games.) I do know the basics of blackjack counting and understand the gist of the of law of large numbers.

I’m telling you that another hero’s special, when fired and Wu is active and no other special miss is impacting the percentages, misses much, much more than 1 out of 3 times. SG doesn’t even have to “fix” this issue, but in fairness to those playing, they need to disclose what the numbers are. The repeatability issue of misses also needs to be disclosed. This disclosure is just basic fairness and honesty.

In the event that all these posts in the same vein as mine are all wrong and SG has the data to support that, then they should also disclose that. This has reached the point that it is about much more than math, algorithms, and RNG’s. It has become about their credibility. A persuasive case has been made against the claims of true randomness; it is up to them to acknowledge or disprove those claims. To do less further undermines their credibility.

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Numbers have already been independently gathered and posted. Hero specials were accounted for. Wu plays tricks with the human mind but he works exactly as written on the card. But this way of thinking is fine with me, I suppose…all the top players will keep using Wu and that can be their little “secret.”

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Quit defending it Penn State. Much brighter mathematical minds than me have expressed the concept above in this thread. No one is really disputing that the aggregate 32% miss rate is off by much. What is at issue is the frequency and length of streaks. Certainly some streaks happen over a large set of numbers, but the volume of complaints about the streakiness (the frequency of deviations from the standard) speaks for itself.

I can’t speak further as to the math, but I can speak further in analogizing this to a burden of proof in a trial setting. The plaintiffs have made a more than sufficient case to send it to the jury. They have put forth sufficient evidence that a reasonable juror could be convinced given a preponderance of the evidence. It is now up to SG to either concede or mount a defense.

It seems that what you are asking for is clear and convincing evidence or even evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. Such a standard should not be required or expected of SG’s customers. An eloquent well stated complaint with adequate supporting maths is sufficient to deserve an answer from SG.

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A few people in my alliance claimed the same thing a few weeks ago

Does streak frequency/length matter? Even if streaks were coded into the RNG either intentionally or unintentionally, you would still be about twice as likely to get a good streak (i.e. every tile hits) than a bad streak (i.e. every tile misses) to maintain the 32% average miss rate. For titans, I’d even argue that streaks would be a good thing as it would increase the chances of a GS-infused vertical 3 entirely hitting the weak point for a stun.

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But the “good streaks” are not remembered as such, mine for instance are insane skill and superb critical insight… while the “bad streaks” are a ploy by the developers to pry money from my account.

I took Wu out of my titan teams for 10 hits or so… the first hit had damage that was higher than my previous averages… but my damages went way downhill from there.

@FunkyknightHay people like you keep saying you can’t speak to the math and then say that your hunches and guesses and stuff are evidence enough.

This is nothing like a trial because there’s nothing nebulous you have to make a judgment call on. The burden of proof here is real numbers and math, so I encourage you to get to it. It’s not SG’s job to investigate imaginary problems.

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And for the record, if you go back through every single post, you’ll see that not a single person has recorded videos, collected data and analyzed it regarding the streakiness claim yet. That’s what I’m encouraging you folks to do, rather than relying on your gut feeling.

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And just who appointed you judge and vested you with the power to decide what makes an allegation adequately sufficient to merit SG’s review and response?

He’s pointing out that if you aren’t prepared to actually make an effort to prove or disprove whether there is an issue, the odds of any potential problems being acted on are less.

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Anyone can record the hit and miss while using Wu on 50 or even 100 runs- adding every time his special is used and every hit & miss counted for. I’ve been collecting my own data I’m level 43 in the game and so far for me - my data shows his miss rate is a lot more than 32%. For me it’s showing 51% for tile miss and 78% for specials miss testing on 5-8. Again this is my data for me so far on 147 runs. Someone else’s data and level in the game could be a lot less or more. Depending on how it’s programmed for each leveled person in the game which definitely part of the factor. I would suggest you record your own data to determine for yourself. Good Luck

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The simple fact that I ran 50 times x10 hits on a spreadsheet with 32% miss chance and not a single time the Random Number Generator produced 3 misses in a row and ony 10 times it missed twice in a row, compared to the actual game, where you miss 3x very, very ofter, talks much for the actual implementation problems we have in the game :wink:

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I know this post is older but with the new heroes out, such as Tarlak and then next month HOTM, I think it begs to reason that Wu would get nerfed in an effort to drive people to spend to get the newer better heroes that give big attack increases. I’ve stopped using Wu on my Titan hits because the miss rate is so absurdly high.

Did the accuracy debuff go from -35 to -32? It should be better now :confused:

As far as I know it’s always been a 1/3 chance to miss on the card.

Thank you for using actual stats - rather than intuition/feelings!

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Glad I read this. I just pulled wu a couple weeks ago and was getting very frustrated with the lack of hits. Wasn’t that huge of an ordeal as he wasn’t one that I was gunning for as it were but had heard really good things about him. I think I’ll continue levelling him.