You usually go very in depth with your statistics and I like that about your posts.
How certain are you that the elemental chests are completely random?
The reason I ask is because my brother and I NEVER skip chests, are both F2P, and we usually fill 2-3 chests per day. The last 3 elemental chests that we received were on the same day.
On our most recent day of getting an elemental chest, every person that actively talks in our alliance also had an elemental chest. That is 10 out of 26 members.
Maybe it is a huge coincidence and maybe I just need to track these things better!
Thanks! I’m a big fan of an empirical basis for claims whenever possible.
So… the answer is: “not 100% certain, because I’ve seen too little data.” Almost all of the data I have comes from a few people, and isn’t date stamped.
But there is very strong evidence that it’s not fixed period or fixed chest number.
For a relatively small sample CDF, it would be harder to look more uniform random. But one could imagine a system with a single uniform random draw on number of chests being shared between multiple people (one draw per server per month, say).
That said, something seems likely not uniform between people, because of the reports of long periods of drought by some users. I can’t, of course, rule out forgetfulness by people not logging data…
That would be super helpful, to understand any synchronization effects that may be present. Certainly if you and your brother logged, both by count of normals in between elementals and by day, that would be very interesting data.
I did exatcly like that, I keep record each time I got an elemental chest, it turns out I have 3 elemental chest each month instead of just 1. Each month I can fill around 60 monster chests, 50 hero chests, and 4 titan chests.
I heard the claim from somebody who tracked a fair bit of data on elemental chests that the ~1 elemental / ~40 total chests ratio isn’t exactly the same between monster chests and hero chests. So if you collect data, I suggest you record which chest spot it comes in so you can follow that.
Titan chests are probably different too, but there isn’t much point in tracking because
You kill titans as often as you can to get titan loot, and filling titan chests is just a bonus activity, with no choice whether to accelerate them or not.
They are way less frequent, so getting enough data to find valid results will take a loooooooooooong time or a LOT of people reporting.
Because of imprecise nomenclature, and general venting on the forums, it can be difficult to search for posts on consecutive rare chests, but several reliable people have reported them.
Bug not a feature
For a while you had Advanced notice of rare WMMC but that bug got patched.
