i havent seen an elemental chest in about a month and i play several times a day
i got elemental mostly every 10-14 days but i always did both chest twice a day ( by using Gem ofc ).
so in my case and math , average Elemental chest will be pop-up every 40 finished chests.
It’s not how often you play a day, it’s how many chests you complete…
Have elemental one about every 10 days. No chest skipping. Open 3 chests a day usually - 2 monsters, one raid.
ok riddle me this if you complete 1 to 2 of each monster and hero chest a day for a month wouldnt you think one would show up?
On average, yes. But they’re randomly drawn, with the mean somewhere between 30 and 40 chests. So it’s very possible to be waiting for quite some time. Like other rare drops in this game, it can be super frustrating when they don’t come at around the average rate. Some people get stuck waiting quite a long time. Hopefully, you’ll get a drop sooner rather than later.
fair enough…just cant remember waiting this long for one. And i am way more active now then i was in the pass, but thanks G
Sure thing. You probably haven’t ever waited this long for one before. Hopefully, you won’t have to wait this long again. I started logging my loot from chests a while ago, which at least gives me something to do while I’m waiting for drops that take too darned long to arrive
Titan chests count too. I recently had a 10 chest interval between two elemental chests. Before that it was 19. @RandaPandah taught me to count when I was impatient. @Garanwyn blew my mind with his numbers. So, the moral is to count, aim for 3+ chest fills a day, and you’ll see more elementals come your way!
Playing actively filling chests without spending gems seems to average about an elemental chest a month.
The game seems to allow three accelerations in a rolling 24 hour window. If you are chasing this limit, you can do three monster and two raid per day; if you use raid flasks, you can fill three raid and two monster. (Diamond raid chests appear to be slightly better than monster chests loot wise, but are more of a pain to fill since full flags aren’t enough)
At this rate you get around 3 elemental chests a month … and spend fewer gems net than VIP provides. … it is one of the more productive ways in the game to spend your gems.
And as stated already … not having a limit would let players who do spend a lot on the game take advantage.
I’ve received lots of 4* mats from monster chests in the last two months
I feel strange from the beginning I played I never got the element chests in the Raid chest
Whales would speed up chests relentlessly, farming for elemental chests and acquiring ascension mats at speeds incredibly higher than regular players - thus creating imbalance.
You usually go very in depth with your statistics and I like that about your posts.
How certain are you that the elemental chests are completely random?
The reason I ask is because my brother and I NEVER skip chests, are both F2P, and we usually fill 2-3 chests per day. The last 3 elemental chests that we received were on the same day.
On our most recent day of getting an elemental chest, every person that actively talks in our alliance also had an elemental chest. That is 10 out of 26 members.
Maybe it is a huge coincidence and maybe I just need to track these things better!
That’s interesting, I posted about that same coincidence a couple of weeks ago, @Adirtyempire.
There are likely more getting them, but some are members who are not very chatty and don’t share what they receive from any loot, good or bad.
The last time I believe 5 or 6 got one the same day or the next, so within a 24 hour time span.
Thanks! I’m a big fan of an empirical basis for claims whenever possible.
So… the answer is: “not 100% certain, because I’ve seen too little data.” Almost all of the data I have comes from a few people, and isn’t date stamped.
But there is very strong evidence that it’s not fixed period or fixed chest number.
For a relatively small sample CDF, it would be harder to look more uniform random. But one could imagine a system with a single uniform random draw on number of chests being shared between multiple people (one draw per server per month, say).
That said, something seems likely not uniform between people, because of the reports of long periods of drought by some users. I can’t, of course, rule out forgetfulness by people not logging data…
That would be super helpful, to understand any synchronization effects that may be present. Certainly if you and your brother logged, both by count of normals in between elementals and by day, that would be very interesting data.
I did exatcly like that, I keep record each time I got an elemental chest, it turns out I have 3 elemental chest each month instead of just 1. Each month I can fill around 60 monster chests, 50 hero chests, and 4 titan chests.
Seems to be correct.
I heard the claim from somebody who tracked a fair bit of data on elemental chests that the ~1 elemental / ~40 total chests ratio isn’t exactly the same between monster chests and hero chests. So if you collect data, I suggest you record which chest spot it comes in so you can follow that.
Titan chests are probably different too, but there isn’t much point in tracking because
- You kill titans as often as you can to get titan loot, and filling titan chests is just a bonus activity, with no choice whether to accelerate them or not.
- They are way less frequent, so getting enough data to find valid results will take a loooooooooooong time or a LOT of people reporting.
Consecutive Rare Elemental Wanted Monster mission chests
Because of imprecise nomenclature, and general venting on the forums, it can be difficult to search for posts on consecutive rare chests, but several reliable people have reported them.
Bug not a feature
For a while you had Advanced notice of rare WMMC but that bug got patched.
Advance notice bug ( sigh. Not a feature).
I will make an effort to start tracking and share the data! Hope t shows something in the end