We don’t have any randomness other than a PRNG, so why would I talk about something general?
I used RNG a lot in my life but never done any research on it. In all exercises I did I assume that RNG is good enough (and it actually was).
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SGG is not playing any chances, they want their money lol
Imagine if I said, "Hey, you know how the 10-pull costs $26? Well, you have:
71% to get $3
26.5% to get $10
2.5% to get $50.
Spin the wheel, let’s see ho much you get paid" 
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I think there is a different thread for conspiracy. In my opinion it is not a casino that has to give you real money. It is a game where you pay for pleasure. Game never gives you anything material back, only pixels. So, as far as people pay for summon and the rest SGG always wins and don’t need cheating.
I think you mean conspiracy theory, a conspiracy is when 2 people or more are plotting something, usually of a sinister nature. A conspiracy theory is an assumption that a conspiracy takes place.
Besides, this is not even close to conspiracy theory. SSG takes your money…you pay it to them, do you not?! I’m not saying they are stealing your money, I’m saying they are taking your money. In return, they give you a chance at something. I never accused them of cheating, I think you just hear what you want to hear (when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail).
What I’m saying is we pay money for a chance at a character when we draw. Not a character we want, a chance at it, and a small chance, at that. And they’re not giving it to us in exchange for a chance at our money, they want the exact amount, 100% guaranteed.
So I’m not saying they are cheating, I’m saying summons are a p*ss-poor deal. I’m spending cash on things I know I’m getting, like ascension mats in spring offerings.
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That can be calculated, although since you can get a bonus draw on a bonus draw, it’s effectively an extra draw. But the odds are certainly against it.
It’s effectively 0.013^6 * 0.987^30
Which is 0.0000000003% of it occurring, or about 1 in 3 billion. Enjoy your luck.
[efit: 0.972 + 0.013 doesn’t equal 1. So 1 in 3B instead of 5B]
Actually they ARE playing chances. That’s the entire point. They get to set the chances is all.
I pulled the HotM with my very first pull this month, off an EHT at that. What were the odds of getting one or more on that first pull? Exactly 1.3%.
As for your claim of spending only on known things, unless you never use those gems for pulls, that’s simply untrue. But it’s also a common decision by c2p players. Because it does reduce the randomness of expected value.
Playing chances means to take on the risk of uncertainty. WE are playing those odds, WE risk uncertainty. They set the chances like you said, but they take no risk. If they want $20, they get $20…not a 1.3% chance at a $20, they get exactly what they charge every time. So no, THEY do not play chances, WE do.
I do pulls if I have gems accumulated from my other purchases. I paid for hidden blades at $1.99, they came with 200 gems. I’m not paying for gems, I paid that money because it has an ascension mat I wanted, would have bought it without gems, too. What I won’t do is spend money on gems just so I can take a 10-pull shot at Joon.
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You and me both, friend. You and me both.
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Is that really true? Seems dubious to me.
Edit -after rereading:
I thought it would be 0.013^6 * 0.987^24, but the number is still insanely low, but it happened.
You can. Alliance member had it happen with Malosi. Posted about it to the “HotMs are supposed to be hard to get?” thread, and others confirmed it. I too was dubious.
Which is why it’s ^30 instead of the ^24. Because it’s essentially another check on the draw. Not that it ends up mattering a great deal… and for such a great hero too, instead of, oh say, Grimble.
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So I added more parameters to do cross-checks. It turns out that program works correctly. At least cross checks match. Also I increased iteration to 100,000
One classic 3*: 99994 99.994%
No classic 3*: 6 0.006%
6 classic 3*: 24360 24.36%
2 classic 4*: 29871 29.871%
1 event 3*: 37661 37.661%
At least 1 event 3*: 55974 55.974%
1 event 4*: 33402 33.402%
At least 1 event 4*: 44113 44.113%
At least 1 classic 5*: 13847 13.847%
At least 1 event 5*: 9537 9.537%
At least 1+1 5*: 1245 1.245%
No 5* of any kind: 77861 77.861%
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Now I’m looking at a question: How many 10x pulls a player need to do in order to get one 5* event hero (any hero).
I was doing pulls until an event 5* popped up. Experiment was repeated 1,000 times.
Number of summons: 1 players: 106 percent: 10.6%
Number of summons: 2 players: 98 percent: 9.8%
Number of summons: 3 players: 78 percent: 7.8%
Number of summons: 4 players: 69 percent: 6.9%
Number of summons: 5 players: 65 percent: 6.5%
Number of summons: 6 players: 63 percent: 6.3%
Number of summons: 7 players: 47 percent: 4.7%
Number of summons: 8 players: 48 percent: 4.8%
Number of summons: 9 players: 45 percent: 4.5%
Number of summons: 10 players: 39 percent: 3.9%
Number of summons: 11 players: 30 percent: 3.0%
Number of summons: 12 players: 33 percent: 3.3%
Number of summons: 13 players: 26 percent: 2.6%
Number of summons: 14 players: 21 percent: 2.1%
Number of summons: 15 players: 16 percent: 1.6%
Number of summons: 16 players: 19 percent: 1.9%
Number of summons: 17 players: 17 percent: 1.7%
Number of summons: 18 players: 15 percent: 1.5%
Number of summons: 19 players: 14 percent: 1.4%
Number of summons: 20 players: 11 percent: 1.1%
Number of summons: 21 players: 13 percent: 1.3%
Number of summons: 22 players: 12 percent: 1.2%
Number of summons: 23 players: 6 percent: 0.6%
Number of summons: 24 players: 13 percent: 1.3%
Number of summons: 25 players: 4 percent: 0.4%
Number of summons: 26 players: 15 percent: 1.5%
Number of summons: 27 players: 5 percent: 0.5%
Number of summons: 28 players: 7 percent: 0.7%
Number of summons: 29 players: 9 percent: 0.9%
Number of summons: 30 players: 4 percent: 0.4%
Number of summons: 31 players: 5 percent: 0.5%
Number of summons: 32 players: 8 percent: 0.8%
Number of summons: 33 players: 7 percent: 0.7%
Number of summons: 34 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 35 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 36 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 37 players: 3 percent: 0.3%
Number of summons: 38 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 40 players: 3 percent: 0.3%
Number of summons: 41 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 44 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 45 players: 4 percent: 0.4%
Number of summons: 46 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 47 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 51 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 52 players: 2 percent: 0.2%
Number of summons: 54 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 55 players: 3 percent: 0.3%
Number of summons: 57 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
Number of summons: 58 players: 1 percent: 0.1%
So, 10% are lucky enough to get an event 5* in a first summon. Another 10% need 2 10x summons. The most unlucky guy will not get 5* unless they did 58 pulls.
I am so disappointed, finally saved up for a 10 summon and all 3* heroes!! No 5 or even 4*!! That’s the kind of thing that will make me stop playing. I will literally run out of heroes to level up so what is the point to of continuing then!?
I did 40 summons for Knights of Avalon and there weren’t heroes of 5 starts even regular,
I did 77 summons in June I vent and took only one events 5stras
As a result for more than 100 summons only one 5 stars hero
It’s a greediest game
So… You already know what to expect of computer randomness 
I do over 100 summons for season 5 and they give me one Elena…pathetic
Also a lot of Underwild summons and I get Leonidas!!!
After 5 years they give you heroes from first season…
again pathetic … like I say before and long time ago:
it’s just a way to make money and ■■■■■■■■ us with words
" it’s just a game, all are randomized, etc"
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