You are not alone my friend. My results were roughly the same for the same money spent. You know what makes it really frustrating is the guy that does a single 10x pull and gets Kage, Mitsuko, and Evelyn. Now that stings.
No, you have a chance of x % to get X - no matter how many pulls.
You can get him with a chance of 10 % on your first pull - or with a chance of 90 % not even after 1.000 pulls.
That’s both wrong and right.
The odds of the 1000th pull are identical to the odds of the first pull. Check.
But suppose I’m about to push the button to buy a 10x summons. I can ask, what are the odds that, after I push this button, I will have the HoTM? I hope you’ll agree it’s not 1.3%—that’s the chance from just the first summons, but there will be nine more, each of which also has a chance of brining the HoTM.
The correct way to think about this question (if I commit to doing N pulls, what are the odds of getting at least one of a particular hero?) is well established in statistical mathematics.
The way to think about it is like this: what are the odds of not getting my desired outcome? Each roll has a 98.7% probability of not giving me the HoTM. So the probability of not getting the HoTM on two successive summons is 98.7% * 98.7% = 97.42%. So in those two rolls, each of which independently has a 1.3% chance of dropping the HoTM, after doing two rolls there is a 100% - 97.42% = 2.58%. (Notice that this is a bit less than 1.3% + 1.3%; probabilities are not additive).
More generally, if I’m about to do N summons, the likelihood of ending up with the HoTM after those N rolls is 1 - (1-p)^N where p is the probability of getting the HoTM on each roll.
Seriously, this isn’t up for debate. We all get our own opinions, but not our own facts. Math works this way.
If you want to go deep:
n = summons
p = chance you get your hero
q = chance of not getting your hero (q = 1-p)
a = the probability it never drops: q^n
=> n = ln(a)/ln(q)
100 % drop => a = 0 (99,9 % chance => a = 0.001)
ln(0) = ?
I am done with trying to pull higher. No matter what i do or what i spend this game screws me. I’m not going to stop playing but will NEVER spend another dime on this game i really think its fixed in some way
First draw of the year?
Don’t bother spending any money to level up. It is a scam. As soon as I started levelling up the odds against you building up mana is drastically reduced. By the it is too late, you have wasted time, money and effort. The game ia designed to get you hooked and spending loads of money and then make you very weak so you feel as though you need to spend more. You are statistically more powerful at 2400 than at 2800.
Advice for New Players, or "All the things I wish someone had told me when I first started."
That makes no sense. I’d like to see your math on that.
The game ia designed to get you hooked and spending loads of money and then make you very weak so you feel as though you need to spend more.
If this is true I’m one of the suckers but I also would love to see the math on what you’re claiming but until then SG can at my spending habits
There is also a bit of luck involved in battles. I have gone up against teams that should have been easy to beat, but couldn’t get my mana generated fast enough, whereas they did, and stomped me. I have also gone up against teams that I had no business battling, and I destroyed them because the starting tiles were awesome, and got a few combos, giving my heroes the mana they needed to use their skill. Yes hero level, skill, and planning go into the battles, but luck is also a factor as well.
I just did 2 30 pulls and 1 10 pull with 0 5* hero’s…my alliance mate also did a 30 pull no 5* if a player is going to spend this amount there needs to be a gaurantee of a 5 star pull…
Did you read the odds?
This game is a casino slot machine.
They “Gacha” money
You “Gach” squat
I dont remember ever responding to this thread…think there might be some mod trickery goin on here
Try it again the chances are you luck will change eventually but I am sure SG thanks you for your donation.
Suggestion; grab a dice and roll it, if you can roll a dozen 6’s in a row then it’s going to be your lucky day.
I bet the chances of you pulling a 5* to be far better than the dice option but hey the dice is far cheaper.
best chance are use your pull at Atlantis summon , do 30x pull and got 3 mats chests as well
Fix the summons. I’m sick of seeing lev 20 players with a full team of 5s on there defences and discussing in chat how they keep getting more. I’m lev 42 and still can’t make a full 5 team.
Individual elemental summon better than 10x summon?
This post was the very first thing I read on the community forum and it shaped my understanding of the game early on. Digesting this information has made the game way more enjoyable because I know what I’m playing with. You can go as deep as you want, but we’re still dealing with blind odds.
I’m not a gambling man, I don’t have an addictive personality, but I can see how at times this game can be frustrating for the uninitiated.
All I’m saying is that I am grateful for this post and hope everyone reads it and understands it. <3
i am at 28 lvl. but i have only two 4* hero.
System always gave me 3* from atlantis, events, challenges, spend gems.
Some players got 4 5 * hero from video
Your post doesn’t have any suggestions or ideas to improve this. Did you have something in mind to improve the possibility of 4 and 5 star heroes? If not then there are other threads we could merge this with. Or at the very least we need to move it to the general discussion thread. Also at level 28 you should have some training camps leveled up. If you don’t spend much on summons TC20 is a must and should be your priority. You can use TC13 for a chance at 4 star heroes until you get to TC20.
Thanks @Alyssaann1014, merged.
@Mehmet999 I moved your question to a thread that can help address it.
Obviously that’s no fun. But it’s also the most common outcome by far of any Summons, since the chance of getting a 3* is quite high:
And your particular results can always be better or worse, since every summons is just a chance at getting a hero you want.
This thread has proven popular for helping players gain perspective on the chance-taking nature of summoning. I encourage you to read the top post, and then ask any questions or share any thoughts you have.
Hope this helps, and that your luck improves!