What are the odds when summoning heroes?

The middle point you’re looking for is called the TC20. If you want to play this game for free, take your time, build two TC20’s, make them to legendary training 24/7 and lo and behold: a slow trickle of 5* heroes. About one every three weeks on average, if you’re working 2 of them.

Epic summons odds unfair? The only thing that I think is frankly unfair about them is that they are not disclosed, they are not exactly known to us. That, to me, is unfair. Are we talking 2%, 0,2%? Are the odds always the same, as I presume? Or are they at times changed for whatever reason, as others have theorized?

“Worth spending money on”. Interesting point. I can dissect that into two things: Caveat Emptor and Don’t spend what you’re not willing to part with.

Caveat Emptor: Look before you buy. Realize that your odds for a 5* or HOTM are piss poor. That’s primarily your responsibility. And part SG’s: be open about them odds so we can properly assess the value proposition.

Don’t spend what you’re not willing to part with. Keep yourself on a budget and stick to it, you have a spine now use it. That’s primarily your responsibility. And part SG’s, they’re operating the game in such a way as to consciously and unconsciously pulling all your strings to spend more. Which is allowed, but doing it while not being fully open about your value proposition (odds), well… I do expect that sometime in the near future that business won’t be considered adequately ethical. In games of chance, there is a responsibility to protect the consumer against themselves. The call to that responsibility is growing.

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ODDS??? What the f…k? I ve got 4 belith, 4 hawkmoon, 4 ulmer, 4 oberon, 3 valen… always the same heroes!!! This is fraud. Shame.

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I’m actually curious about the odds as well.

I know they are posted. Event Heros are typically:

  • 5.7% Epic
  • 1% Legendary

My question is when there are 3 Legendary Event heros are those odds evenly split between them?
Example: 1% chance of rolling an Event legendary, then a 33.33% chance of hitting any of the 3? This is never actually explained when you are going for a single hero.

I like to collect heros. But on the last Atlantis (May 2019) - there was Ursana, Hel, and Inari brought back. Since I started the game late this was my chance to get them.

I ended up with 15 Inari, 3 Ursana, and 1 Hel. It took me 1900 pulls to get Hel. I can do math. How are these even odds between the legendary event heros? I have documented proof of this.

So now we have the Riddles of Wonderland (June 2019). I’ve done over 900 pulls. 1 Alice. 7 Hatters. 0 Queen of Hearts. All I want is the Queen. Does SG know that is the one I need? :wink:

I’m not even arguing that it should be higher than 1% to get an event legendary. I’m just saying that all of those 5* heros should have the same odds. Or if not, disclose it. I can give more examples. It has happened every single event summon I do. Something doesn’t seem right.

We believe so, but no one knows for certain. The drops are rare enough that it’s super hard to study. There never seems to be a special prevalence of one kind of featured hero or another from Atlantis in the forum reports, though, for instance.

I don’t think it is an even distribution.
Once again, I am at 1200 pulls this event so far (Riddles of Wonderland - June 2019).
Event Legendaries received:
2 Alice, 8 Hatter, 0 Queen of Hearts.

There can’t be too many people that do over 1000 pulls every event. I have more data than most. This has happened every event. You don’t need thousands of data points to reach statistical significance when the disparity is this high.

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You certainly do. I would be fascinated to see that data.

Depends on what level of statistical significance you’re aiming for. Here’s the distribution of outcomes at 1200 summons:

Number of QoH Probability
0 1.83%
1 7.32%
2 14.67%
3 19.57%
4 19.57%
5 15.64%
6 10.41%
7 5.93%
8 2.96%
9 1.31%
10 0.52%
11 0.19%
12 0.06%
13 0.02%
14 0.01%
15 0.00%

Your result is certainly outside the 95% bound on the distribution, but within the 99% bound.

If you have large quantities of data, though, it should be possible to assess whether they’re uniform fairly exactly.

ended up getting QoH on the 1346th pull.
got 2 more classic legendaries, 1 more Alice
ended up with 11 Ranvir (HotM)

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Interesting. That pulls the outcome into being unable to reject the null hypothesis even at the 95% confidence level:

For 1346 pulls:

Number of QoH Probability
0 1.12%
1 5.03%
2 11.32%
3 16.95%
4 19.04%
5 17.09%
6 12.77%
7 8.18%
8 4.58%
9 2.27%
10 1.02%
11 0.41%
12 0.15%
13 0.05%
14 0.02%
15 0.00%

I really appreciate your data! Thank you!

If you have data on others of your pull sets, I would be grateful. At 1200 pulls per event, you actually have enough aggregate data for us to come to some pretty high quality conclusions if we can put it together.

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i will compile it. I only started recording the last two events, but I’ll be sure to record this Atlantis as well.

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Incidentally, your Ranvir count is (as I’m sure you’re aware) also definitely very much on the low side versus expectation. But the HOTM draw is not divided up amongst anything.

Number of Ranvir Probability
0 0.00%
1 0.00%
2 0.00%
3 0.00%
4 0.01%
5 0.03%
6 0.10%
7 0.24%
8 0.53%
9 1.04%
10 1.83%
11 2.93%
12 4.30%
13 5.81%
14 7.28%
15 8.52%
16 9.34%
17 9.62%
18 9.36%
19 8.61%
20 7.53%
21 6.26%
22 4.97%
23 3.76%
24 2.73%
25 1.90%
26 1.27%
27 0.82%
28 0.51%
29 0.30%
30 0.18%
31 0.10%
32 0.05%
33 0.03%
34 0.01%
35 0.01%

Thank you! I have an additional several hundred pulls between myself and another couple of people that I can contribute to the effort. That data actually matches the published distributions quite well (although is just too small to have an opinion about uniformity of 5*).

I actually did 1350 pulls (in blocks of 10) then stopped when I got QoH.
Ended up with:
Event Legendaries: 8 hatters, 3 Alice, 1 QoH
Classic Legendaries: 6
Bonus Draw - HotM: 11

I could probably calculate 3* and 4* appearances but they are all feeders so I didn’t really care.

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Unless you’re splitting them out by kind of 3* and 4* (S1, S2, Event/Seasonal), it doesn’t really integrate into my existing tracking data anyway. If you choose to do that though, it would definitely be of interest also. But at 1346 pulls, that sounds like it might be a lot of work :slight_smile:

I agree. I don’t know the actual odds, but I believe if the odds of winning high level heroes were to improve, encourage players to keep playing and even spend money.

You can the odds by hitting the ? at the top left of the summons gate

What odds? 100 pulls without a single 5 * is equivalent to 0% odds as opposed to the 1.5 % written in the summons column.
Trust your luck and pray that RnG Gods will send you at least one 5 * in 10 pulls. Never mind the hotM…jk…lol.

Odds are odds and no guarantee. 100 pulls is very a small sample size. To expect a result that is close to the odds, you need at least 1000 pulls, probably rather 10000 or more. Also: If someone pulls a 5* hero with a single EHT, his result is 100%… much better than the odds.

Expecting the results of a few pulls (and mathematically speaking a hundred pulls still are a few) to be equal to the odds is just ridiculous.

That was just an example. It could either be worse or much better.
On our lucky day, a single token pull may return a 5 * and another 3 hotM…RnG Gods knows.

Just going to quote a bunch of stuff that @zephyr1 has been making for the new “hero” and “event” summon threads.

Note that not only do these posts set out the ACTUAL odds described in the portal but it also goes and does the maths of the PROBABILITY of getting heroes from x summons.

It also puts it in perspective of who will/not be getting the heroes.

Event Summon Odds
Season 2 for a 5* FEATURED Summon Odds
Season 3 (Valhalla) Summon Odds

I also wrote an extensive article on the odds of summoning a specific hero from an event portal:

You can also calculate out the PROBABILITY of you getting a specific hero from a summons portal if you so chose:

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Closed due to information on Odds provided; please continue discussions as to the “odds” and “Probability” of summons on the linked threads

Also 9 months inactivity here

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