Some clarification.
As far as I can find Garanwyn is amongst the earliest to explain how points work in alliance wars:
Unaware of this nevarmaor and I went into this with our own data:
There is an important part which explains why most alliances are worth more than 1500 points: the Points and Victory Points calculations are rounded up to the nearest whole number. This is why a player on the field isn’t simply worth 1500x(team health/alliance health) because it doesn’t account for the rounding up of both points columns. In most cases one alliance will have a ‘technical’ points advantage over the other.
As for the uneven match up, it’s long been the main legitimate complaint of matchmaking with many examples on the War matchmaking strikes again thread. I personally suspect it’s because the system has ran out of correct number of participant matches. It’s why I’ve suggested people track their matchmaking times as I imagine these uneven match ups are near the end of the process.
Having come across some posts about people having to attack clones of themselves on a Watchtower battle, I would wonder whether it was possible for the devs to implement something similar for war matchmaking if proper matchups are no longer available. 
