Valhalla Gnomes - Low Drop Rate - No Coins - MASTER

[Gryphonknight]

Low drop rate VF gnome and AR dragon

Merciless RNG noise

@Yhc

13-1 normal.
Which would translate in some sort of saddle point between minimum energy and maximum mob number

Click for lots of sound, and lots of fury both signifying lots of nothing

There is so much statistical noise ( see notes ) in AR dragon, and likely VF gnome, we are unlikely to ever know the true formula

Coin / loot rolls appear designed to make it worse

Daily limit on VF gnomes makes research on live server more difficult

But SGG has gone to great length to prevent one province from standing out significantly

So much data

Rumor from beta,

no one really cared about VF gnome

But

Beta testers REALLY cared about AR dragon

Several beta testers spent a crazy amount of time, and infinite loot tickets, testing it during multiple beta releases

Many live server big spenders spent huge hoards of flasks, tickets and micro transactions, testing it

Testing tools

I would love if someone cracked the AR dragon formula

The best tool for this was the Seadragon Avatar Mission ( 100 seadragons ) but rumor says most Beta testers finished the mission during the first AR it was offered

It will be interesting if SGG skips a similar avatar mission for VF gnomes

Conclusion

The conclusion among the beta testers, and some live server math people I know,

SGG deliberately designed AR dragon ( and very likely VF gnome ) to be

Heavily influenced by WE spent

Little difference between where you spend 12 WE ( minimum 3 WE, maximum 12 WE )

Roughly 0.01666 dragon per 1x WE or 1x dragon per roughly 60 WE

Highly variable ( minimum 0, theoretically maximum of 18 per run, odds 1 in 2.337716869172e34 of 18 seadragons in one run )

Very streaky ( like scratch off lottery tickets )

Resistant to reverse engineering

Note

Click for notes

AR dragon

@Guvnor

This topic appears EVERY SINGLE Atlantis Rises…

• Every AR, the question gets asked “did SG nerf Atlantis Coins?”; “Are the Atlantis Seadragons still there?” etc…

And the answer is invariably “Yes, they’re still there”

• The drop rate is just really low… Always has been; and likely always will be… [Ref many complaints / discussion here: How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) ]

• The drop rate appears to be higher on Hard Mode compared to Easy Mode; likewise it appears a higher drop rate on later provinces compared to earlier ones.

Avatar Mission

Avatar mission requires 100 seadragons and an average of 6000 WE for approximately

0.01666 dragon per 1x WE

@From another discussion

Based on initial data, looks 6000 world energy to unlock the avatar.

Coin analysis

(How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) - #133 by Gryphonknight)

Coin records

(How rare exactly is the Atlantis Rises seadragon? (10% chance) - #145 by Gryphonknight)

Boring as a feature

Allegedly beta discussion of emblem design, but similar discussion allegedly happened with seadragons

Replace emblem path with AR stage

@Gryphonknight

Boring

Rumor from original emblem Beta, testers hypothesized, the lack of significant impact from any possible emblem paths is a design feature not a bug ( Devs did not confirm )

Last time I discussed this with some math people ( especially with the number of 5* heroes exploding ) the the only significant impact were with the below roster situations

Generating mobs

If I Recall Correctly, maximum possible is 18 mobs per run

@Gryphonknight

Example:
I got lucky with the 19 monsters for 2.25-1N, but If that stage always follows 1 Boss + 2 Mobs + 3-4 mobs x 4, then the range of 15-19 can be deduced from data without the need for large sample size

18x dragons

roughly 1 per 60 WE

12 WE / 60 WE

roughly 0.2 appear per run 2.25-1N

roughly 0.8 none per run

log0.8 / logX=18
log0.8= 18*logX
log0.8/18=logX
10^(log0.8/18)=X

0.987679660608173 none per mob

Check

0.987679660608173^18= 0.8 none per run

0.012320339391827 appear per mob

1 in 81.16659518839265 appear per mob

1 in 2.337716869172e34 for 18 appear per run

Business

@Gryphonknight

Although behavioral economics was not conceived as a F2P game design strategy, it’s a valuable tool and even a strategic advantage. As the free-to-play space becomes more competitive, monetization managers that consider behavioral economics will engage consumers more successfully. When matched with the ability to segment players and apply user-level optimization, these psychological principles also drive higher ARPU. These strategies may then be scaled efficiently through machine learning to ensure maximum engagement at each consumer touchpoint

FIN